Let's talk Mule Team quantities

[Red Leader]

Honestly, the hype around steel seems to revolve around Larrin and his Knife Steel Nerds articles these days.

I've noticed the recent flood of attention that 3V is getting here amongst this forum, seemingly out of nowhere, as it really was overlooked by most afis here in favor of 4V and Cruwear for most of my ~10 years amongst the forum. 3V was for the bushcraft and outdoor forums, it seemed, and the interest was rather low here (please do not construe this as nonexistant, as I know I will be "checked" if I do not state so). Then someone graciously (may have been a couple folks) pointed out that Larrin posted an article recently speaking highly of 3V.

I've seen a downswing and more of a negative shift in consensus towards certain steels that seemingly faultlessly reigned supreme for years, after Larrin posts an article. M390 (especially, and its equivalents), ZDP-189, S110V, and even Maxamet. This fact simply cannot be overlooked. The amount of push that Larrin has within his KSN platform is enormous amongst the knife community right now.

Lets be real: this of course goes with the flow of herd mentality amongst the knife community. There are so many rinse and repeat mentalities out there that spread information that they read, versus what they've experienced first hand. Certainly a factor.

Aside from that, in the most basic caveman terms, steel seems to be viewed as such at this current time:

-Ingot, low carbide (and for some reason these days, stainless) steels = Bad, no buy

-Powdered, high carbide, high hardness (and for some reason, "stain proof" stainless) steels = Good, yes buy

Incorporate a steel that is not an equivalent to another steel commonly found within the Spydiesphere (like K294 being an equivalent to PMA11, and first cousin to K390 - even PD#1 sat for a very long time), so it has some sort of exotic quality (look at the most recent cases being T15, M398, and REX76), a brand new steel to the market (look at the S45VN, SPY27, MagnaCut, and now MagnaMax frenzy), or make sure it's a steel that has been in a KSN article within the past 6 months that Larrin has spoken positively about, and you have a recipe cooked for sales.

This hole goes a whole lot deeper, but I believe these seem to be the main forces driving the Mule Team interest these days, within the realm of those who do not actively participate here.

There is a lot of truth to the above. Also there is a bit of that 'I liked it b4 Larrin talked about it' energy in reaction to the hype and popularity and I'm not totally immune from it either.

I think the mention of a correlation between KSN/Larrin and the popularity or demand of a steel does need to be acknowledged. On one hand, herd mentality is real, and a large group of people will treat anything coming out of that corner of the knife industry as gospel, which makes sense - most knife 'consumers' understand that Larrin is an expert and knows more than them, and unless they take the red pill, they don't have the bandwidth to learn about the properties of every steel out there and decide for themselves, so it is far easier to say 'Oh, that knife steel expert guy said this one was good, or designed this other one, I'm good with that one then.'

A lot of this is to Larrin's credit. Dude has worked harder than I know and props to him. I don't know if we have ever really had a knife steel composition ambassador before, and I think the whole industry is better for it! And...people will be people. They are predictable. So the hyped steels, or the ones that get the press are going to be the hot sellers. And that is why it is easy to see that Magnamax, if put into regular production rotation in the Golden line, is going to win hard, because look at all the weight, influence, and initiative behind it. I also wonder about how other knife companies that maybe aren't used to working with super high eschelon steels will be able to approach Magnamax. Spyderco is well positioned to ride the wave, since not only do they have production experience behind it now, but working w/ high hardness, high carbide steel is their bread and butter. I wonder if it might be harder for other companies who aren't in that position to take full advantage of it once it fully comes on the market.

I know that mules get collected, but I am in the camp of keeping it primarily as a testing platform relationship w/ users instead of a more exclusive thing.

[weeping minora]

...

A lot of this is to Larrin's credit. Dude has worked harder than I know and props to him. I don't know if we have ever really had a knife steel composition ambassador before, and I think the whole industry is better for it! ...

Abso-effin-lutely!

There are many folks out there that really contribute to the community in so many niche ways, but Larrin has the knowledge, experience, and tact to tie the entirety of steel and its processes together with a matter-of-fact, trimmed fat approach, and ability to speak clearly to the layman, actively upping the knowledge of the community (that will read/listen). He is incredibly gracious with his time, and deserves all the good coming his way. I support him (literally, through KSN), and always appreciate his willingness to cover ground on topics that I had zero depth of when it comes to the complexities of steel (especially outside of the cutlery industry).

Digression aside, I do not believe that a Damascus Mule Team is appropriate for a large quantity push, within the current market. I understand that there are benefits that Damascus has over monosteel (amongst the steel types used for Damascus), but I am also aware that I am quite ignorant of Damascus as a whole. I see it more as a "pretty" material; suited more to a sock drawer, or display case, versus what it may offer performance wise. Never really see many Damascus knives in the "what's in your pocket" threads, much anywhere on the web (that I frequent, at least). I think it is sought after for the "eye" aspects more than anything else it could offer. Is the market big enough on the eye appeal factor to justify a large run at this time? While there is, and will be definite interest, I do not believe it will be large. As for the actual quantity to produce? Well I suppose that would have to be predicated based on what steels are going to comprise this Damascus (meaning consumer knowledge and/or experience with such steels, currently), along with the pattern, and overall price point.

Whilst I don't see Damascus paving a pathway in the future, I do not expect it's intrigue to diminish, either. Perhaps it's time to start schooling us on Damascus to get a better gauge of current intrigue, and spark an increase in overall interest?

[KnifeKnuts]

I think I can understand the difficulty of predicting the demand and the frustration of excess blades remaining in inventory. I really appreciate Spyderco's willingness to make these blades available and I offer the following suggestions in an effort to ease the burdens that this program imposes on Spyderco, as well as their loyal Mule Team customers.

I know that I've made suggestions about Mule Team blade demand predictions before, but maybe it's worth revisiting now, because our suggestions have been requested by Sal.

I would like to again suggest that one way to anticipate the demand is to have a pre-order process in place. This could probably be done completely online without tying up valuable Spyderco administrative staff time. You could announce the new products well in advance and ask the customers to complete their pre-orders online and pre-pay at that time, before an announced cut-off date, charges to be posted at the actual time of the release. This would help anticipate how many blades to produce.

As for myself, I would be willing to subscribe to an automatic ordering process for all Spyderco Mule Team blades, as soon as they are released, until such time that I give notice to discontinue. I know that this subscription process would not appeal to all customers. Sal has previously voiced concerns about this suggestion, and it may not be a viable option.

The recent advertising at the top of the Spyderco website was very useful to inform us of the new Mule Team release, complete with a precise count-down timer, and could also alert customers to place their pre-orders before a pre-determined cut-off date. I suspect that this new advertising also resulted in additional new demand for Mule Team blades.

I would also like to say that offering PayPal as a payment option was very helpful during the last Mule Team drop. My last order went much smoother than any previous release. Thank you for all the work that was done to streamline the ordering process! Please keep this Mule Team program available. I hope it continues to provide valuable feedback to assist with production knife blade continual process improvements.

[KnifeKnuts]

You can definitely count me in for a couple Damascus Mules. I like my MT07P Damascus VG-10 Mules from 2010. Dr. Larrin Thomas' father, Devin Thomas, was one of the foremost and respected Damascus makers in the world, at least up until his accident. I don't know if he's able to do it anymore, but his Damascus work is legendary. It might be worth looking into Devin as a possible source of Damascus steel: https://www.devinthomas.com

[MattyBee]

First I want to say an absolute wholehearted thanks to the Spyderco team for working to get us “cutting edge” steels before everyone else, it’s quite an accomplishment and I for sure appreciate it!

Hi Sal,
I would create a forecasting model using the following categories as examples and develop weighted factors for each and apply to a baseline of xxx units. I would also use similar Steels as comparable items and build out a forecast using this method as well. Also coming up with a time related goal to sell out (1 Day max?) so that it fits within the spirit of the program. Polling MT can also gauge interest and build a dataset for each future release.

Categories
Super Steel
Uniqueness
Special features- HT/Geometry
New Released Steel- First production
Marketing/IG/Reddit hype
Current Availability from other makers
Performance testing
Price
Country of Origin
Multiple SKUs- PE/SE
Min per customer (many buy 2 in order to get free shipping or have 1 use/1 collect)

I agree with what Ryan has above. Models have uses in several industries and I’m sure there’s enough data points between what Bolster and others have recorded, and what information Spyderco has internally.

This does not bypass the potential super long order time for the steel stock for blades however. For one off materials I don’t think there’s a good answer for that. For materials that you foresee using again though, might could order more? Tough question there. Having more material on hand would allow you to adjust up if you thought there would be more demand but you can’t quite adjust down…

To better gauge demand, I want to take suggestions from others and advance it a bit? Why not make a Mule Team “Collectors” Club (maybe call it the tester club?). Give two options, one for every mule to be released, one for just plain edge or serrated edge. Not sure how many would be interested, but it would bonafide give you order numbers, while not explicitly being a preorder (while being one at the same time?). Helps to keep the mystery of the steel alive while allowing those core testers to get their hands on the knives. May even allow the guys in shipping to get ahead on orders by boxing knives up beforehand. Not sure if the knives need serial numbers or not, or how others would feel about that. Just some more food for thought.

Regarding damasteel, the one of the ideas of mule team (to me anyway) is to test, so test away! I’d be game to try one.

Now off to start a discussion on prospecting mule team reruns?

Side note: I think the serrated edges were much more popular this time since this was their first offering (combined with a brand new, desired steel). I personally got one to see if I can get after sharpening serrated edges (yes I know I need a sharp maker, it’s next on the list with hopefully a steady hand lol). Not saying they won’t be popular in the next release, but how much?

[FullScaler]

Count me in as one who wanted to get one but wasn't able to. I was in the remote wilderness without a signal and they were sold out long before I got back to civilization.

Tough call on production numbers but like others have mentioned, any time it is a new steel, or a hyped steel, or something everyone is talking about, or even something new like putting a SE on a Mule. It will probably be a bigger seller. Hard to plan for the hype a year or two ahead but all I can say, is thanks for the opportunity to keep trying these great new steels in a known and trusted platform.

I didn't get these ones, but i'll still be trying to get the next ones.

[GnifeGnut]

Sal,

Got one PE, had to pick up the SE on the Bay.

I've been here since MT03. I'm less intested in being "surprised" than in purchasing 2x of
whatever is released next.

Being a long-time (mostly) lurker, I've become convinced the only way to get Sypderco and
all the customers into something close to the right place is to run a pre-order or
"buy-in" like Sterling545 and Fireman/TimButterfield suggested. Your concern about losing
interest is real, but if the mule team project is still meant to "enable steel obsessed
knife enthusiasts to test different blade materials" a PO will meet customer need better
than the current flipper-fest, and perhaps a little less hype will be balanced by more
sales overall and less stalled inventory.

Social media buzz works for what is popular today, but not really two years prior when
you're buying steel.


PO/BI makes sense for the following reasons:

1. Sell more knives — No upper limit on Spyderco for total manufacture numbers &
   sales per-person. Spyderco would capture much of the demand on popular steels that
   goes to flippers now.
2. Less risk — Less popular steels would not sit in inventory for months because you'd
   have more accurate sales predictions on smaller runs too.
3. Second chance — Anyone serious about testing or collecting will make the PO/BI early.
   An extra 20-30% available on release day gives everyone else the "second chance" they've
   asked for.
4. Max number of happy customers — Loyal customers, casual buyers, even flippers get
   access to the product.
5. More predictable business — Releases like MM that could sell many times the typical
   prod numbers would balance the production cost for steels that move fewer units. PO/BI is
   more work for you, but it could increase your profits and reduce losses. Whatever makes
   your accountant happy is good for the MT project.

You'd still have to experiment with the "extra" amount, pricing and cadence, but this model
would take a lot of guesswork out. Maybe it would allow more steel varieties or even re-runs
since most of the risk would be gone. Pallet of S90V found in a barn...

The only real problem would be a hiccup like ZDP or Cru-Wear, but the serious buyers would
understand a cancellation. We did in the past.

I really appreciate you doing this project. It got me into making scales then eventually
making blades on my own.

Btw, I'll take 2x of the damacus too.

[sal]

Thanx much for all of the input. It's appreciated. I have always tried to keep the project as simple as possible. It keeps the cost lower and take less valuable time from staff doing their regular responsibilities. Any system set up can still be used by the the resellers.

Costs cannot be determined until after the steel is ordered. The amount of steel to order is what we need first. I'm gonna buy xyz steel, but I don't know how much the Mule will be?

The manpower and paperwork required to set up and maintain such a system for a project like the Mule Team is quite a bit.

Lots to think about. The time required from decision to shipping Mules takes a long time. Years. We have 3 Mules in process right now. We're waiting on some CATRA tests to determine a 3rd.

I'll watch the thread.

sal

[Sterling454]

Thanx much for all of the input. It's appreciated. I have always tried to keep the project as simple as possible. It keeps the cost lower and take less valuable time from staff doing their regular responsibilities. Any system set up can still be used by the the resellers.

Costs cannot be determined until after the steel is ordered. The amount of steel to order is what we need first. I'm gonna buy xyz steel, but I don't know how much the Mule will be?

The manpower and paperwork required to set up and maintain such a system for a project like the Mule Team is quite a bit.

Lots to think about. The time required from decision to shipping Mules takes a long time. Years. We have 3 Mules in process right now. We're waiting on some CATRA tests to determine a 3rd.

I'll watch the thread.

sal

Clearly there's a strong and loyal base for the Mule Team project. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying how exciting it is to hear there are 3 more in the pipeline!

In the past, I primarily bought knives from Kershaw, Benchmade, and Cold Steel. As my appreciation/fascination with steels grew, I was inevitably sucked into the Spyderco sphere and have fallen in love with both the ergonomics and the dedication to offering different steels not commonly available from other manufacturers.

It might be forgone matter, especially if 3 are already in progress, but have you considered polling various forums/communities for interest on what the upcoming Mules should be? My impression is it's generally an internal decision right now.

[msum]

Hi Sal,

Congratulations on the success of the MagnaMax release and thanks for getting these steels out there and available.

I don’t think I have much to add on this topic in general - beyond that which has already been said.

But, in order to try to answer your specific question, my personal best guess would be that a Damascus release of the same size as the MagnaMax release will also rapidly sell out. So I imagine you might need to make in excess of three thousand for people to not miss out! However, I’m cognisant that I may be way off with my prediction. I do think that price could be a factor - when I think pattern welded, I think expensive, rightly or wrongly…

On a completely separate note, has thought ever been given to releasing two different heat treatment variations for an alloy…? It’d be a lot of work, though, and probably a terrible business idea. But might really appeal to the hardcore Mule Team enthusiasts.

So exciting to hear that a Damascus Mule might be coming!

Thanks again.

[RustyIron]

Lots to think about. The time required from decision to shipping Mules takes a long time. Years.

For that reason, I don't think the pre-order system is workable.

Some dealers take pre-orders. Sometimes, so much time passes between "pre-order" and "delivery" that I lose interest and cancel the order. It's good that they allow cancellations, but I imagine that too many cancellations will goof up their inventory plans.

Nor do I think it's practical to ask customers to pay up-front for delivery of a product that is to be delivered in a couple years. It's not like we're talking about Bugattis or Koenigseggs here.

P.S.
My MagnaMax Mules are out for delivery today, as well as the wood that I'll use to make scales for my REX T15 Mule. Guess what I'll be working on this week?

[mooniesdl3]

Lots to think about. The time required from decision to shipping Mules takes a long time. Years.

For that reason, I don't think the pre-order system is workable.

Some dealers take pre-orders. Sometimes, so much time passes between "pre-order" and "delivery" that I lose interest and cancel the order. It's good that they allow cancellations, but I imagine that too many cancellations will goof up their inventory plans.

Nor do I think it's practical to ask customers to pay up-front for delivery of a product that is to be delivered in a couple years. It's not like we're talking about Bugattis or Koenigseggs here.

P.S.
My MagnaMax Mules are out for delivery today, as well as the wood that I'll use to make scales for my REX T15 Mule. Guess what I'll be working on this week?

So I have a T15, K294 and a VG XEOS mules waiting for scales, I did taper the tangs on those three so drilling the holes for the scales is a little more involved than a regular tang, both of my MagnaMax mules were delivered to the house a little while ago, I can't wait to get home and take a look at them.

I think I have enough handle material to do all 5 of them.

[Bladeops]

I got into the Mule project with MagnaMax. I'm glad I was able to order a PE. I would also order the SE if it had still been available. So thanks for bringing up this topic. I think the Mule Teams are a cool form of R&D where you involve customers. I will definitely be following new Mule Team releases. A Damascus one has my interest too.

Thanx much for all of the input. It's appreciated. I have always tried to keep the project as simple as possible. It keeps the cost lower and take less valuable time from staff doing their regular responsibilities. Any system set up can still be used by the the resellers.

Personally, I would not change too much about the initial process. Keeping the cost and amount of work down is important. I assume that you make some sort of prediction of how much interest there will be in a Mule before you order the steel. I don't know if in doing so you set a standard number of say 1500 pieces and a deviation of +/- 500 pieces depending on the estimated interest.

Lots to think about. The time required from decision to shipping Mules takes a long time. Years. We have 3 Mules in process right now. We're waiting on some CATRA tests to determine a 3rd.

As you also mentioned earlier, preorders have the significant challenge of the long time before a Mule can be delivered to customers. What is the possibility of a backorder? I assume this can be accomplished faster than the initial production. For initial production, you can have a limit of 1 edge type per customer. The backorder you can omit this order limit. The backorder could be opened immediately if the initial production run is sold out in a short time (for example, sold out within 2 days). For the backorders, you could add a counter to make it clear to everyone whether the minimum order quantity is met before a new production is run. You leave the backorders open for a limited time. Indeed, I think it would be good to distinguish backorders from possible reruns at a much later date. Good that there is a separate forum topic for the reruns here viewtopic.php?t=98646.

Interesting thread that I will continue to follow

[yablanowitz]

I'm not sure how a pre-order would work when the price can't be determined until they are done. Interest in the first Mule was low when the pricetag was unknown, so low that the project was nearly cancelled before it began. People were unwilling (to put it mildly) to commit to buying without that vital bit of data. Add in a two to three year lead time from ordering steel to delivering product and I don't believe it would work. Social media mentions may correlate to demand, but that doesn't mean much when the steel hasn't even been made yet, much less mentioned.

[Ramonade]

I might be out of topic but I think that the new website already makes it more than fair for people wanting a Mule to all get their shot at it. MagnaMax was highly anticipated but IMHO it's good that everything sold. The AEB-L Mule is a jewel and it's still available. Choosing one particular solution might be good for highly anticipated drops but not for others.

The current way seems to be pretty good

[weeping minora]

I might be out of topic but I think that the new website already makes it more than fair for people wanting a Mule to all get their shot at it. MagnaMax was highly anticipated but IMHO it's good that everything sold. The AEB-L Mule is a jewel and it's still available. Choosing one particular solution might be good for highly anticipated drops but not for others.

The current way seems to be pretty good

I'd like to be able to purchase a handful more before they're gone

[Ramonade]

I might be out of topic but I think that the new website already makes it more than fair for people wanting a Mule to all get their shot at it. MagnaMax was highly anticipated but IMHO it's good that everything sold. The AEB-L Mule is a jewel and it's still available. Choosing one particular solution might be good for highly anticipated drops but not for others.

The current way seems to be pretty good

I'd like to be able to purchase a handful more before they're gone

Ahahah, same ! I did actually, but it has been blocked in customs for 10 days. Fedex doesn't even allow me to ask if I can (or Spyderco) do anything to speed things along

[FirstPenguin]

Gail brought up an interesting question; "How many of you did not get one?

sal

I was, unfortunately, far from a network connection the day the Magnamax Mule was released and also quite busy. Life be like that sometimes.

To address this issue, it may be worth doing multiple releases of the same Mule over multiple days/weeks to maximize the number of people available to try their luck. Another option, which is hardly new, would be to implement a lottery system for a certain percentage of the production volume. This could be done with or without a small fee/donation to buy into the lottery.

Steel with a lot of hype and/or high performance properties, like Magnacut/Magnamax, could probably have multiple runs or be put into long-term production like the SPY-27 version while still selling quite well. If it sold out in the first couple of days, it's probably safe to say that it would make good candidate for future runs (provided good feedback from the community.) This would make a lot of sense for steels that are used in other Spyderco models and could be purchased in larger quantities.

On the subject of a Damascus Mule, I think that it's a delightfully weird enough idea that if the material can perform in it's own right then it should be done. The HIC Mule is a good example of this premise playing out. I look forward to seeing which steels it will be made from, and kinda hope that it'll be a ProCut/ApexUltra mix. I'd order one and probably another Mule in AEB-L since I've enjoyed the first one so much.