Let's talk Mule Team quantities

[sal]

This is a tough question and I'd like for you to share your thoughts. If we make too man, they sit for months, which was not part of the original plan. We used to make 500 pcs . Now we're making close to 2,000 and now we're adding teeth to some of the steels. I wish we would have made more, but they were well on their way in processing to make changes. They sold out very quickly and many did not get to try it?

That is not the manufacturing model planned. The purpose and goal of the Mule Team is for anyone that wants one can get one. So this is a serious question for which we are not guessing closely enough

I'd like to do a run of a Damascus material; We get to test the material, see what it's like to work with, do we want to use it in a production piece, how do you like it, etc.???

It would be a ways down the road as there are others (Mules) already in process. ( we pushed the MagnaMax run, as best we could for you and Larrin). I'm trying to determine how many to make? It is not just the material for testing, (function), but there is a large amount of "eye" which will affect the amount to make. SSSSsssoooooo whaddayouthink?

sal

[blueblur]

Sal, since the mules aren’t restrained to the limited, one run and done philosophy of sprints, is it possible to do a second run for the popular steels that sell out quickly? I was fortunate to land a pe MM but was really looking forward to testing the se version as I’ve really grown to appreciate se ever since the se Endura in k390 came out. That Endura is no joke and I dare say it is the best knife for edc uses I’ve ever used. I’m hooked and want more!

[sal]

We can discuss demand for a redo of prior materials in another thread. Usually we've run and done. The manufacturing model is for 4 times per year. With new materials becoming available, your requests for certain steels, what would we leave out to do a remake?

This whole Mule Team thing is a bit of an experiment in the first place. The first time I brought it up, there was little interest. There was more the second time so we began the project. When interest slowed, we dropped the project. Then demand and a lot of work from Kristi and staff, we brought it back. I don't know of another company doing such a project. From a R&D point of view, we get to try new stuff. Certainly much of the industry would be interested in these odd blade steels, and some have become mainstream. Good for the foundry, good for the industry, good for you.

sal

[mikey177]

I feel that demand for a particular Mule is related to how attractive people perceive the steel to be.

MagnaMax is closely related to MagnaCut, which is very popular. AEB-L and VGXeos, on the other hand, might be perceived by some to be old news, even though these have in fact been tweaked by Spyderco to come up with the Mules.

Marketing and promotion also helps. In the days before the MagnaMax drop, I saw at least a dozen mentions of it on social media. The previous Mules, not so much.

[sal]

Gail brought up an interesting question; "How many of you did not get one?

sal

[Jeb]

It should appear to everyone here how impressive it was they sold out as quick as they did. The Spyderco Mule Team should take a bow and pat each other on the back for what you guys are doing here!

The sad thing here is seeing soon as they were all sold out, I saw one person with 3 of each edge of the MagnaMax Mules forsale on ebay. 200.00 bucks each.

Those guys really have this online purchasing down at another level lol.. for them to be able to buy them that fast and that many, then have them on ebay that freaking fast...

Heck I show on my Spyderco online account to have bought something, I am not sure what edge style I snagged. I'm pretty sure I was able to snag a K294 Mule also, which is awesome if I did luck out getting it.

Guess when they hit the mail box I will know what I exactly got. I will say right now if I got one of each MagnaMax, I had a bit of luck doing so lol.

I personally would take two more of each edge if allowed, if I did get one of each edge design. These are certainly something we can take and mess with to see just what you guys really have here.

For me, I want more than just one of each, if we can get them. You guys really had to be shell shocked after all of them disappeared as quick as they did lol.

One thing is for sure, your obviously doing something right. Take a well deserved bow Sal!!! Regardless of what I have coming from my order this morning, you can write me down for 2 more of each edge design if I can get them.

One other thing that is a certainty, the ones I get will not be forsale on ebay or anywhere else for that matter. I might gift some of mine, but even at that they will be in hands that plan to use them and not sale them.

[Timzania3000]

I felt ready this morning and had completed checkout in less than 2 minutes… I came back somewhere around half an hour later out of curiosity and saw that it was sold out!… how long did it actually take to sell out?!

I agree with the gentleman who stated that it depends on how bad the market wants it. In this case, it seems to be the first production knife for magnamax… a very highly anticipated steel. I’m excitedly happy that I was able to complete my order but I’d bet you could’ve sold twice as much and still sold out by closing time. Me, myself, I would not only plan on more magnamax mules but what production models to get them in, the market really wants to like this steel as it is.

I would suggest if another production of magnamax mules are made, that something is tweaked or different, kind of like your spy27 knives… This way first edition magnamax mules have that collectibility.

I love this mule team project, I wish I would’ve known about it earlier, my guess is that as long as you’re putting the good steels out there, it will only get more popular. I was luke warm on the spy 27 until I got the mule, now I have a few spy27 knives and enjoy the steel.

[Sterling454]

I think there's a balance to be had with the production quantities. If it's an existing steel that's tried and true but not well-adopted by Spyderco (AEB-L for example), it makes sense to produce a lower quantity. It's not trendy/hyped/flashy so larger quantities will likely collect dust on the shelf. If it's something new and specifically designed for the knife world (MagnaCut, Pop's ProCut, MagnaMax, etc) then I think it's safe to say that there are many knife steel nerds out there who will eagerly hand over their hard-earned dollars for the "latest and greatest". I wouldn't be surprised if the MagnaMax MT run would have sold out quickly if the production volume was doubled if not tripled. The fact that there are those who will snag as many as they can and successfully flip them on eBay shows the demand exceeds Spyderco's expectations/intentions. New but less novel steels would also likely be best produced in more moderate quantities.

Not that I will ever claim to be a sales expert, but this Magnamax issue seems like a classic example of where pre-ordering would have been a superior method of dialing in a production forecast versus producing an arbitrary number and crossing your fingers that it's enough to meet demand while not leaving many on the shelf. If I was in charge, I would have implemented a pre-order system and opened it up several months early while leaning into a more deliberate social media campaign to spread awareness. See where the numbers fall after the pre-order window, produce another 20-30% for impulse buyers and start churning them out of the factory.

There are those who will rightfully criticize a pre-order system for being exploitative or capitalizing on the hype machine - and their argument isn't without merit in certain industries. However, in the case of Spyderco, my belief isn't that they are trying to maximize MT sales profits but to strike a healthy balance between over and under production. They make their margin elsewhere!

If I got what I wanted today, I would have ordered at least 4 of these MagnaMax MTs: a PE and SE to test and another pair to have in my collection in their unmolested form, maybe with my own edge put on the PE. I understand why there was a purchase limit. If I was a less ethical person, I would have gamed the system to buy much more! Alas, I will be content with the single PE that was available when I got the page loaded. With only a single blade to test, I will be much more conservative in what paces I put it through out of fear of causing irreplaceable damage. A second to have as a user would have freed me to go all-out otherwise which seems to be the ethos of the Mule Team project as a whole.

Thank you Sal for recognizing this as an opportunity to collect feedback and better serve the community! So about that straight razor......

[sal]

Hi Timzania,

Welcome to our forum. Hope you enjoy your time here.

Hey Sterling,

I see two problems with a preorder system; 1) it's kind of a surprise as to what the Mule Team would be, so we'd have to announce the steel to be able to take preorders. It takes out all of the mystery. 2) The time to make a Mule has taken as long as 2 or more years. Getting the steel in some cases has taken a year and another year to learn how to work it. If we announce steel, wait for an order count, place the order for the steel, receive the steel and get it into process would take so long, that the interest in the steel might be gone when they're released.

sal

[Bolster]

Hi Sal!

As the unofficial keeper of the Blue Mule List, which tracks sold-out times for Mules, I have an interest in this topic. Does Spyderco have any social media monitoring tools? I would correlate "mentions" of a particular steel in social media, to how long it takes to sell out, for the past several Mules. If the correlation is large and stable, then use "mentions" of steels you plan to release, to predict sales. This is based on the hunch that social media mentions should predict sellout times (and through that, numbers to produce.)

To do it right, the software would need to count "mentions" before Spyderco releases a Mule, because certainly social media buzz goes up after a release, and you'd not want to be counting that.

I agree with @mikey177 above. The buzz should predict sales.

If you're reading, thanks so much for the Mule project. I really enjoy taking my "bare naked" Mules on backpack trips.

[Red Leader]

It seems like demand has a lot to do with the market - which can be highly unstable and emotional as well! The excitement around Magnamax was very palpable, and seeing how highly anticipated it was, it was easy to see it become a strong seller. But does that come before, or after, production? If after, then it is really hard to say.

The really esoteric stuff is probably not going to sell well simply because there is no demand, because people may not know about it yet. That is a different situation from the creator of Magnacut (which has been widely popular across the entire industry) announcing somewhat of a successor to Magnacut, and giving people even more of what they want - edge retention.

I would reckon that a Mule in Nitro X-7, which nobody has or has even heard of, should be done in very limited quantities. 3V, maybe a few more, since it is used by some companies in their folders and is popular in the fixed blade world. People know it and have heard of it and there is good press...it has a good foundation already.

I could see Pop's Pro Cut being a bit more popular (though nowhere near as popular as Magnacut/max) just due to how it is likely able to shake up the carbon steel world.

The Damascus I see more as a niche thing, but I could be wrong. I'm not really a damascus guy, but if the damascus is *really* special, and really beautiful...and it becomes 'Spyderco damascus'...it gets a lot harder to say no.

I think the Mule pacing is good. We don't/won't need a Mule every 3 months, as it would probably be overload and too hard to keep up. But if something really special comes along, then perhaps there is that experimentation room. I wouldn't go out of my way to keep up w/ Mule releases. If nothing interesting comes along in 2 years, well maybe we don't have a new Mule for 2 years and that is okay to me. Also, popularity doesn't equal performance. There could be a blade steel that would sell extremely well, while an even higher performing steel languishes simply due to popularity, trends, and market awareness. I'm sure that is a tough thing to balance.

Regarding the Magnamax thing, I do really feel for the folks that were really interested in it and for whatever reason were not able to get one. I don't know if it is morally questionable to keep a box full of them stashed away and do a soft re-release so some folks get a second chance, keeping with the 1 per sku per household? Probably not, just thinking out loud.

[shunsui]

Some problems don't have simple solutions.

I got two mules today because I jumped through a lot of hoops I'm familiar with due to experience, plus the fact you made a lot of mules.

You're doing what you can, and I'm doing what I can.

I've missed out on some mules in the past. I think all you can do is make a practical decision on how many to make, and everyone understand the nature of the beast.

[Bolster]

Sal, what's your ideal sell-out window? A week, a month, a half year?

[Steeltoez83]

I was able to produce my test results before the drop was official. I think it made the release more desirable but thats my 2 cents. Im not a fan of Damascus or damasteel, however the road less traveled always has the most stones. I thought the spy 27 production mule was a fantastic value and filled the void for a mule always available. Now with serrations joining the party- I kinda wish the serrated mules have their own drop months separated from the plain edge. I think demand would be easier to navigate but thats my views.

[RustyIron]

I'm trying to determine how many to make?

If you can figure out that equation, then you would have to quit the knife-making business and start charging ten thousand dollars per seat at your business strategy seminars across the globe.

As we all know, if you don't make enough knives, you have grumpy customers and you're leaving money on the table. If you make too many knives, you're tying up cash in product that is sitting on a shelf gathering dust, and you're squandering precious production capacity that could be better utilized making other models that are in high demand.

A big consideration should be the mystique of limited runs. Part of the coolness of the Sprints are that they're somewhat uncommon. It's the same way with the Mules. If customers knew that the Mules would be available for the next year, the hype would certainly be diminished and initial sales would certainly be fewer. Would total sales be greater or lesser? Better ask the marketing geniuses about that. I have no clue.

Overall, would the customers be happier if you geared up to run another batch of Mules, or would they REALLY be happier if you just went straight to putting MagnaMax into your regular run of knives? Me? The latter, for sure--especially if it was a MagnaMax Sprint 2 XL. Just sayin'...

[standy99]

Hi Sal

Think like someone mentioned above it’s not a set amount.

Magnacut and MagnaMax are always going to be an outstanding sell out with the hype.

Other steels are not going to spark the interest. Other than the die hard Mule team members. Always notice the traffic here dies out quick after a drop, so many one and done on the bigger hyped drops.

Damascus well I would bet it will blow both Magnacut and MagnaMax away just for the aesthetic looking appeal. 3000+ limit of one and open for more if not sold out in 48hrs

As always I appreciate everything I get and may miss the occasional (like the SE this time) but I think the SE may be more of a chance on the next drop. Like always not going to be too hurt if I miss the occasional Mule to demand and glitches.

Maybe a day early for Patch members would be a good thing to reward the diehard Mule Team guys. Pretty sure @TazKristi has a list…

I still can’t work out that the AEB-L is still available as for me it’s one of the best slicers going.

Thanks again for the Mule project and the team that allows us to participate.

[Fireman]

Hold a tunnel to towers fundraiser? Whoever donates $10 within a specific time period gets the option of purchasing a mule. The options not exercised are made to public buy after. This makes sure you bypass bots, help a charity, gauge interest and obviously help a worthy charity. 2,000 mules X $10 could be $20,000 for charity and no over/under selling the mules. Even if 20% don’t exercise that option that’s not that many to sell to the public on a drop later. Perhaps a special set of scales to sell that shows you supported that certain charity and that could change each time. Thoughts?

[F1prb22ga]

I first came into the Mule world because of Magnacut, via Ebay at $178.

I currently own around 4 (+/-) mules.

Before each release, I carefully analyze each steel for what I believe to be exceptional qualities, before making a purchase.

Since Magnacut (2000x) sold out almost immediately, I would have assumed a MINIMUM starting point for MM of 2000 plain and 500 serrated.

Your improved website responsiveness and seamless integration with PayPal worked quite frankly astonishing well, perhaps too well.

Virtually 4 clicks (+/-) for me and purchase completed in one minute or less . Those whom didn't have that streamlined experience, missed out, especially on the serrated model.

I intended to purchase HIC, but backed out because reasons.

Damascus would have to be analyzed prior to purchase.

Pops would be of interest.

Frankly, I am happy with my current mules and could live without anymore purchases, but you keep coming up with exceptional steels.

Perhaps those that have been awarded a Mule Team Patch here, for their meritorious forum participation, should be given some extra accommodation, anywhere from a free mule knife, to a day early sale, whatever works best, for the involved parties.

None of this may be of use to you, but I wish you the best.

[The Mastiff]

I used to buy every one made. Now I plan on being unable to get the highly anticipated ones like Magnamax. I can't compete with the flippers . It's the same with online seconds/sales.

This one was an easy one to predict. Others not so much. Honestly for Spydercos sake I'd rather see the company sell out too quickly for me to get one than have losses of money and resources enough to cause Sal, Eric and Gail to reconsider how worth the mule team project is. I've never really considered any Spyderco products as things I'm entitled to and that goes double for mules.

Yes, the thought of flippers getting 6 while I can't get 1 can annoy me a little I'd still rather see that then Spyderco make too many and have them still in stock 6 months or a year later. Too many seems more of a problem than too few. If a steel is a good performer and is well received chances are good I will see it again in a folder I will have a better shot at getting.

[Ramonade]

I still can’t work out that the AEB-L is still available as for me it’s one of the best slicers going.

Thanks again for the Mule project and the team that allows us to participate.

You and me brother ! I ordered mine to ship to France and only after finalizing my order I saw that the AEB-L was still available. I placed a second order....

I had 2 but they somehow kept being snatched by friends...