12-20-2012 poll

If your topic has nothing to do with Spyderco, you can post it here.

do you think the world is going end somehow on 12-20-2012?

yes
3
3%
no
75
84%
i dont know but im aware of this.
11
12%
 
Total votes: 89

User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#41

Post by Sequimite »

Mastiff,

1) On the question of consensus, you claim that the actual informed beliefs of earth scientists in general and active research climatologists in particulars are not "supporting data" on whether these scientists have a consensus. ???

2) I offer evidence that 97% of active climate researchers believe that mankind is a cause of global warming. You offer an unsupported assertion that there is "plenty of dissent from scientists". Are you planning on weighing actual evidence or are your unsupported assertions enough in your mind?

3) You complain that the first poll question is too obvious and then completely ignore the second question. Don't you think that before asking whether mankind is a cause of global warming good poll design dictates that the respondent state if global warming is occurring?

4) You assert that this summary of the poll "3146 out of 10,200 responded by stating what? It doesn't state anything about their response". The poll asks yes and no questions and gives you totals including the result that 97% of active climatologists answered "yes" to both questions.

5) You claim that a survey which queries 100% of earth scientists and gets answers from 31% of them, is inconclusive because, "What about the ones that didn't respond, the majority?" I took a monster college mathematics course in statistics and also studied it separately in conjunction with science lab work, business quantitative analysis and marketing. A poll of 100% of the subject group is the best possible poll. Receiving a 31% response is enormous and would put the confidence level at about 99%. If you refuse to believe in statistical methods I can only recommend studying the subject.

6) Your claim that because the first sentence of the article states results of the poll: "The first sentence states it all. Their agenda, despite the fact there is plenty of dissent.", proves that the report is biased. So reporting the results of a poll proves bias? What's the point of the article if not to report the results?

7) You claim that the information being generated by active research climatologists is questionable because many may be "working off skewed or falsified data?" This group, that answered yes to both questions, is constantly producing new data. The scientific method recognizes that any individual study may be in error. That is why every study must be peer reviewed and replicated before the results are accepted.

8) "How many are merely going with the flow to ensure an income?" If you believe that individuals become scientists in order to make the big bucks I'm almost speechless. You make this claim that we can't trust scientists because maybe they are corrupt and don't really care about science. It's easy to make a personal attack on those who disagree with you. Show me some evidence.

In summary, I present evidence to support my claim that there is a scientific consensus on global warming. You offer no evidence whatsoever.

The Mastiff wrote:Sorry, This isn't supporting Data. There is plenty of dissent from scientists. There are a few statements here that show a decided pro AGW perspective, not a neutral one.
example: "have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levelses?"
levelses? :) Of course they have. We were/are still coming out of a "little ice age. Temp's would have risen even if no human walked the earth. Where is this evidence from?

In addition, 3146 out of 10,200 responded by stating what? It doesn't state anything about their response there. What about the ones that didn't respond, the majority?

The first sentence states it all. Their agenda, despite the fact there is plenty of dissent.

In addition, how many scientists are now working off skewed or falsified data? How many are merely going with the flow to ensure an income? We need to figure this stuff out before making any changes with far reaching consequences to our and the worlds economies.
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
The Mastiff
Member
Posts: 6070
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2006 2:53 am
Location: raleigh nc

#42

Post by The Mastiff »

In summary, I present evidence to support my claim that there is a scientific consensus on global warming. You offer no evidence whatsoever.
You offer no evidence of a consensus on AGW. Just a paragraph with some problems I see on it from where?, and when? Pretty low standards for evidence. I'd expect better from a 6th grader.

You are aware of the data found to be made up, unsupported, corrupted etc. All the current mistakes found in past reports, conclusions based on false information , right? Do you keep up with the goings on in the AGW industry? Was this written before the scandals, after, by whom? Etc, Etc.

The leaked e-mails should give you evidence there are some huge problems with the issue. You seem to ignore that. It's blown all the past conclusions out of the water as these were.....never mind. Do your own research.

Please don't post a paragraph from somewhere (?) claiming it's any kind of evidence. Don't get indignant about scientists and their motives. Events have shown there are some very, very sleazy ones playing fast and loose with their science. Falsification, cover ups, , as a start. Does that ring a bell? Sure, they are the minority but they exist and are some of the biggest of the Pro AGW scientists whose published reports have been used by other scientists, and used as evidence of AGW.

lastly, if you expect me to post pages and pages of names and positions on Spyderco's server you have to be out of your mind. This is a knife site, not a Global warming argument website.

I posted my opinion, nothing more. I only did that as a courtesy because you asked. To be honest I feel if you can't do your own research to an extent than it's not worth any attempt at a discussion. Have you done any research into who some of these "deniers" in the earth science fields are? At the very least you should do that so you don't have to start by asking me for stuff you should already know.

We aren't going to agree no matter what on AGW. Our whole thought processes are so different as to make it seem we are of a different species. We do both however agree that our socieity is living a lifestyle that needs large changes to make it work as we are now over 6 billion and quickly rising. We should probably leave it at that. Got to go as I'm cooking dinner. :)
"A Mastiff is to a dog what a Lion is to a housecat. He stands alone and all others sink before him. His courage does not exceed temper and generosity, and in attachment he equals the kindest of his race" Cynographia Britannic 1800


"Unless you're the lead dog the view is pretty much gonna stay the same!"
User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#43

Post by Sequimite »

I'm just sorry that 12-20-2012 is so close to Christmas because it's a wonderful occasion for a big party and it's hard to schedule in the midst of other holiday plans. I wish the Mayans had used 10-22; if it was good enough for the great disappointment of 1844 it should be good enough for us.
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
Toad310
Member
Posts: 587
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 4:59 pm
Location: Palm Desert, Beverly Hills, California
Contact:

#44

Post by Toad310 »

Sequimite wrote:I'm just sorry that 12-20-2012 is so close to Christmas because it's a wonderful occasion for a big party and it's hard to schedule in the midst of other holiday plans. I wish the Mayans had used 10-22; if it was good enough for the great disappointment of 1844 it should be good enough for us.
Guess we can cancel the next election as the winner will never be sworn in. Poor Obama, no second term. Is there no hope for hope? (With apologies to Bob Hope)

We can now spend our campaign donations on flashlights and knives!

Wait! I make money off covering the campaign! Is there any way we can put this off for a few more years?

Son of a B...........................
User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#45

Post by Sequimite »

Well, we'll definitely have to open those Christmas presents on 12-19 that year.
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
Toad310
Member
Posts: 587
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 4:59 pm
Location: Palm Desert, Beverly Hills, California
Contact:

#46

Post by Toad310 »

Sequimite wrote:Well, we'll definitely have to open those Christmas presents on 12-19 that year.

We can give some really expensive gifts in 2012. I may get all you guy's gold Rolex Day Dates.

However, if the world does not end, I will need them back!
RIOT
Member
Posts: 2923
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:25 pm

#47

Post by RIOT »

Toad310 wrote:We can give some really expensive gifts in 2012. I may get all you guy's gold Rolex Day Dates.

However, if the world does not end, I will need them back!
lol i keep telling myself if i ever buy a crotch rocket motorcycle itll be in 2012
User avatar
Toad310
Member
Posts: 587
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 4:59 pm
Location: Palm Desert, Beverly Hills, California
Contact:

#48

Post by Toad310 »

RIOT wrote:lol i keep telling myself if i ever buy a crotch rocket motorcycle itll be in 2012
Hey! You should. I have a Ninja 636 and I keep in the lobby of my office.

Really, there is nothing like a fast bike, great fun.

At home I have a dual purpose, and a scooter. My wife and teen like to ride that in the neighborhood.

Small bikes are a ton of fun, too.

Start now, and you have good riding skills when the vampires arrive. They will never catch us on a bike!
User avatar
Monocrom
Member
Posts: 1331
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:01 am
Location: NYC

#49

Post by Monocrom »

Nope. World won't suddenly end in about two years. If I'm right, I can laugh at everyone who thinks it will.

(If I'm wrong we'll all be dead, and no one will be around to laugh at me.)

As for Global Warming . . . Everyone in New York just experienced one of the coldest, snow-filled, Winters in recent memory.

Here's what you do. You grab one of those so-called scientists screaming about global warming. Toss him in the trunk. Drive out to the woods in the middle of Winter. Then you leave him out there for about 6 hours in nothing more than his lab-coat. Come back to get him after 6 hours. Then ask him if he still believes in global warming. :rolleyes:
"The World is insane, with small pockets of sanity here & there. Not the other way around."

:spyder:-John Cleese- :spyder:
User avatar
Gibsoniam
Member
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:00 pm
Location: The Lone Star State

#50

Post by Gibsoniam »

Consensus does not makes scientific theory true, it only means several scientists agree with each other. Consensus also does not indicate definitive majority, it only indicates at best plurality.

Finally, consensus in science is worthless when it's based mostly on 1) what is appearing to be badly exxagerated data (I didn't say wrong, just exaggerated); and 2) most AGW research makes certain assumptions using previous "findings". From what I have read, initially from a neutral position, leads me to believe there was a lot of relying on previous assumptions for new research, rather than new research.

Call me a denier I you like, it's not an insult. Just don't call me ignorant for not believing the whole thing. There's way too much evidence that the earth naturally goes through climate swings to assume man is responsible. If it has swung so much in the past before the industrial era, why is the assumption made that we caused it this time?

A lot more proof is required. And some of the prior stronger arguments are turning out to be bad science, exaggerated, or just plain false. These recent discrepancies with the AGW findings demands more science BEFORE burdensome legislation.
Mike :cool:

<><
1 Peter 3:15


"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity;
an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
Winston Churchill


EDC
Spyderco Meerkat Sprint
HDS Systems EDC Executive 140W
Fisher Space Pen
User avatar
Gibsoniam
Member
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:00 pm
Location: The Lone Star State

#51

Post by Gibsoniam »

BTW, I'm also a huge fan of reducing our dependence on foreign oil and alternative sources of energy production. Currently, the best, most cost effective answers are 1) drill here to reduce dependance of authoritarian/totalitarian regimes and 2) persue terrestrial (nuclear) energy.

How any environmentalist can be pro-wind and pro-solar boggles the mind. Both rape the land with the acreage required to be even marginally effective and wind for sure interferes with wildlife. Add to that neither are anywhere close to effeient both rely heavily on uncontrollable and intermittent sources (wind and sunlight) to produce what little power they are capable of producing.

With our current technology, the best bet to reduce oil useage is nuclear. It's safe, clean, and effecient if the government wants to pay me to put spent rods in plastic bins in my backyard, I accept. The dangers of nuclear waste have been so exxagerated, and the technology for containment so improved.

Of course, I really like the idea of tethered solar satellite platforms… as soon as we can figure out how to tether them. That would be awesome!
Mike :cool:

<><
1 Peter 3:15


"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity;
an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
Winston Churchill


EDC
Spyderco Meerkat Sprint
HDS Systems EDC Executive 140W
Fisher Space Pen
User avatar
The Deacon
Member
Posts: 25717
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:33 am
Location: Upstate SC, USA
Contact:

#52

Post by The Deacon »

Keep in mind that scientists and mathematicians use the term "significant" somewhat differently than the rest of us, a per the quote below from the Wikipedia article on statistical significance.
The use of the word significance in statistics is different from the standard one, which suggests that something is important or meaningful. For example, a study that included tens of thousands of participants might be able to say with very great confidence that people of one state are more intelligent than people of another state by 1/20 of an IQ point. This result would be statistically significant, but the difference is small enough to be utterly unimportant. Many researchers urge that tests of significance should always be accompanied by effect-size statistics, which approximate the size and thus the practical importance of the difference.
Do human activities contribute to climate change - of course they do. How much they contribute, compared to all the other factors known to contribute to it is the real question. The "greens" would have us believe we are the largest contributor. Personally, I think they are wrong and that we're a relatively minor factor compared with solar and geothermal activity.

I do however think the best thing for the earth, and for ours species in the long run, would be a 75% reduction in human population.
Paul
My Personal Website ---- Beginners Guide to Spyderco Collecting ---- Spydiewiki
Deplorable :p
WTC # 1458 - 1504 - 1508 - Never Forget, Never Forgive!
User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#53

Post by Sequimite »

The Deacon wrote:Keep in mind that scientists and mathematicians use the term "significant" somewhat differently than the rest of us

Do human activities contribute to climate change - of course they do. How much they contribute, compared to all the other factors known to contribute to it is the real question.
My approach in a discussion is to start with the least contentious elements to find mutual agreement before moving on. When one can't get agreement that 97% of active climate researchers agreeing to a proposition constitutes a consensus, there is no point in going on to more difficult issues.
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
Gibsoniam
Member
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:00 pm
Location: The Lone Star State

#54

Post by Gibsoniam »

If 97% of researchers believed human action was a contributor, this would not be a debate. The problem is, a large percentage are advocatig that not only is human activity capable of contributing to GW; but that human activity is the primary cause. Reviewing the natural cycles of climate in history alone seems to indicate that this position needs to be presented with a hefty dose of caution and skepticism.

I deny neither global warming or the possibility that our actions may contribute to it. However, I am very skeptical of the outrageous clai
that we are the primary cause. Additionally, a warmer overall climate is much preferable to an overall cooler climate. That, taken with the fact that the earth has experienced warming swings in thepast prior to undustrialization, sceams for more research: not based on prior models which are proving to be incomplete or edited altogether.

The word "fact" and "significant" are indeed very different as used by scientists. Which is why some of these debates (evolution?) need to be handled with more care than usual. A fact in science is not at all the same as a fact I math or law.
Mike :cool:

<><
1 Peter 3:15


"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity;
an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
Winston Churchill


EDC
Spyderco Meerkat Sprint
HDS Systems EDC Executive 140W
Fisher Space Pen
User avatar
The Mastiff
Member
Posts: 6070
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2006 2:53 am
Location: raleigh nc

#55

Post by The Mastiff »

My approach in a discussion is to start with the least contentious elements to find mutual agreement before moving on. When one can't get agreement that 97% of active climate researchers agreeing to a proposition constitutes a consensus, there is no point in going on to more difficult issues.
My approach to discussions is to not bother unless one has studied both sides of the arguments, and knows more about it than just being told some number or percentage ( which may not even be true or accurate) thinks it's true.

When someone has studied all sides of the argument, Then I'll debate it with them as time permits in the proper venue.

When someone approaches me and wants me to explain why the deniers don't agree, and who they are I figure it's a waste of time discussing things at all.

Knowing only one side of the argument only makes you an uninformed follower.

some deniers in the fields applicable:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sc ... al_warming


The heartbeat of the earth's climate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vosto ... -petit.png
"A Mastiff is to a dog what a Lion is to a housecat. He stands alone and all others sink before him. His courage does not exceed temper and generosity, and in attachment he equals the kindest of his race" Cynographia Britannic 1800


"Unless you're the lead dog the view is pretty much gonna stay the same!"
User avatar
tonydahose
Member
Posts: 6277
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 7:56 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

#56

Post by tonydahose »

i am with Joe on this arguement of global warming. i think it is just a big money maker. if any of you have watched conspiracy theory with Gov Jesse and no i do take everything what he says seriosly, it is kind of fun to watch just for the laughs at times...anyways they reproted that the biggest loud mouth for global warming, Al Gore, has part ownwership in a few companies that will profit greatly if global warming is true. to me that is like an Indian Cheif doing a rain dance because he is trying to sell umbrellas.
WTC #1444 Always Remember
Need info on a particular :spyder:, just click here
My knives
Spydie count: a few:D
User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#57

Post by Sequimite »

Tony, I don't get your point:

"the biggest loud mouth for global warming, Al Gore, has part ownwership in a few companies that will profit greatly if global warming is true.

Money talks, BS walks. The thing that caused me to study the issue originally was reading a decade ago about insurance companies and other large businesses including global warming in their long range plans.

All Gore's investments show, like the aforementioned businessmen, is that he has a belief sincere enough to be backed up with cash.
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
The Deacon
Member
Posts: 25717
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:33 am
Location: Upstate SC, USA
Contact:

#58

Post by The Deacon »

Sequimite wrote:My approach in a discussion is to start with the least contentious elements to find mutual agreement before moving on. When one can't get agreement that 97% of active climate researchers agreeing to a proposition constitutes a consensus, there is no point in going on to more difficult issues.
So, what would you consider the least contentious element? I'd agree that 90% of the 31% of active climate researchers who bothered to respond to that survey said human activity was a statistically significant factor in climate change. On the other hand, I'd disagree as to whether all, or even the majority that 28% minority of those polled who answered yes were suggesting it is a major, or even an important factor.
Paul
My Personal Website ---- Beginners Guide to Spyderco Collecting ---- Spydiewiki
Deplorable :p
WTC # 1458 - 1504 - 1508 - Never Forget, Never Forgive!
User avatar
Sequimite
Member
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:19 am
Location: Sequim (skwim), WA

#59

Post by Sequimite »

The Deacon wrote:So, what would you consider the least contentious element?
From least to most contentious IMO:

there is a scientific consensus
the earth is in a warming trend
human activity is a major factor in the warming trend
the warming trend will be costly in lives and gold
there's something we can do to change the trend

In my view the first two are true, the third is extremely likely, the fourth is probable and the fifth is an open question
Our reason is quite satisfied, in 999 cases out of every 1000 of us, if we can find a few arguments that will do to recite in case our credulity is criticized by someone else. Our faith is faith in someone else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case.
- William James, from The Will to Believe, a guest lecture at Yale University in 1897
User avatar
tonydahose
Member
Posts: 6277
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 7:56 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

#60

Post by tonydahose »

Sequimite wrote:Tony, I don't get your point:

"the biggest loud mouth for global warming, Al Gore, has part ownwership in a few companies that will profit greatly if global warming is true.

Money talks, BS walks. The thing that caused me to study the issue originally was reading a decade ago about insurance companies and other large businesses including global warming in their long range plans.

All Gore's investments show, like the aforementioned businessmen, is that he has a belief sincere enough to be backed up with cash.
he tries to get legislation passed in congress that will make the companies he is part owner in richer. do i think that he really believes in glabal warming, yes. do i think he is using that belief to make himself richer with his investments, yes. he went from a net worth of 2 million since he left office to to 100 million according to bloomberg.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-shepp ... fit-motive
WTC #1444 Always Remember
Need info on a particular :spyder:, just click here
My knives
Spydie count: a few:D
Post Reply