Spyderco Forums

We've had two mule pre-release polls (that I'm aware of) that sampled the forum's interest in an upcoming mule. I've been curious whether one could roughly predict demand from a forum poll. Two events is not enough to get a stable estimate, obviously! But here's what we've got so far:

Magnacut, the forum interest (of those who participated in the poll) was 477 mules. 2000 were available, and they appeared to sell out within minutes of the website processing orders (not counting the first hour where I doubt many sales were actually made). So a simple calc would say [forum interest * 4] would get you near 2000. BUT. Demand was much larger than supply (Sal said: "...the MagnaCut run still wasn't enough and there were still many complaints"). For ballpark estimates, let's imagine 3000 might have sold, if available. Then [forum interest * 6] would give a ballpark number for 3000.

SRS13, the forum interest was more difficult to estimate because the poll asked for purchases of 1 AND 2 mules, then we learned that there was a limit of one, so those who would have purchased 2, got converted to 1, for the sake of the math. That meant forum interest tallied to 79 pre-release. SRS13 sold out in 2 days. If 500 were sold, then the ballpark estimate would be [forum interest * 6]. BUT, Sal said: "The original number of Mules was set at 500 because that's all we were selling. Some were higher because of what we could purchase. This run [SRS13] is more than 500..." and later added "If we make 600 pieces..." If 600 is the number that sold, then [forum interest * 7-1/2] would be a better estimate.

EDIT: Kristi published the SRS13 run as 700. That puts the multiplier closer to 9x.

Can we estimate that marketplace demand is some multiplier of interest as indicated by a poll? That for every forumite who indicates interest, there are maybe 6-9 other people buying? No, I don't think we can confidently predict that yet. I don't think we have enough sales to make an estimate, and I would expect to see more variability in future sales. But maybe I'm wrong!

Can’t work anything out from forum numbers as each steel will be different.

Magnacut was always going to be huge due to word on the street and actual price of a Mule made out of Magnacut

Think what the recent release showed was that 75% of the Magnacut buyers weren’t Mule team forum members.

MT32 - Steel: SRS13/SUS405 | Released: Feb 2022 | Quantity: Approximately 700

I think you need a larger sample size to draw any inferences. I'd be interested to see you keep tallying these numbers for future releases and see what the average looks like after 5-10 more releases.

Hi Bolster,

Good try and a noble cause. We'll need to come up with some formula for numbers. For now, we're aiming at 1500 pieces per run. If everyone buys 2 then we're talking about 750 people. Could be up to 125 people. That's just a guess, but it's a moving target as the demand is growing for reasons other than just testing the steel. It's become kind of a "build your own knife kit". 2 of our future steels are not new. Been around for a long time. For one reason or another, it became difficult to get what we needed.

We try to have 4 or 5 going at any given time. With this type of project, everything is new each time in processing. So glitches of one type or another are expected.I would imagine that someone getting all or most of the mules in another 10 years would have a pretty good sampling of blade steels.

sal

TO be complete you'd also have to run a poll on Bladeforums, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

Perhaps next time you could create a poll on SurveyMonkey and ask for respondants on all five aficionado avenues ?

MagnaCut was an outlier and I think a good 3,500-4,000 would’ve sold. A run of 1,500 for upcoming mules could be a stretch even with a limit of two per household instead of one. Basing output on interest on this forum is just one factor. The price is another factor. The first four Mules from 2021 were sold at just $50 with just 500-550 produced. The last two Mules were sold at $75. The Mules before the 3-year hiatus were sold for $70-$110 from 2013 to 2017. Also, the higher the frequency of releases the more chance that a production of 1,500 will languish in stock.

RamZar wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:27 am

MagnaCut was an outlier and I think a good 3,500-4,000 would’ve sold. A run of 1,500 for upcoming mules could be a stretch even with a limit of two per household instead of one. Basing output on interest on this forum is just one factor. The price is another factor. The first four Mules from 2021 were sold at just $50 with just 500-550 produced. The last two Mules were sold at $75. The Mules before the 3-year hiatus were sold for $70-$110 from 2013 to 2017. Also, the higher the frequency of releases the more chance that a production of 1,500 will languish in stock.

I agree, I would hate to see Spyderco get stuck with extras. Unless it is a super “hot” steel 750-1000 for a run would be more than enough I think. Especially if it’s a one knife limit, then open it to a second one after 24 hours.

I might be a bit off topic but I think it's related :

Shouldn't the release of a regular production Mule affect this demand ? People only wanting a "build your own knife kit" might just go for the regular production instead of waiting and prepping for releases.
As Sal said, this might be a certain proportion of sales and (IMHO) certainly not represented by the sample the forum provides.

Btw : the open to a second one after one day rule would kick off most of EU customers since the new obligatory custom fees are not really proportionnal to the price of the item.

Hi Ramonade,

Ramonade wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:09 pm

I might be a bit off topic but I think it's related :

Shouldn't the release of a regular production Mule affect this demand ? People only wanting a "build your own knife kit" might just go for the regular production instead of waiting and prepping for releases.
As Sal said, this might be a certain proportion of sales and (IMHO) certainly not represented by the sample the forum provides.

That's part of the plan in stabilizing the volume.


Btw : the open to a second one after one day rule would kick off most of EU customers since the new obligatory custom fees are not really proportional to the price of the item.

It would probably be more than a day before we could open up numbers.

sal

sal wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:58 pm

Good try and a noble cause. We'll need to come up with some formula for numbers. For now, we're aiming at 1500 pieces per run. If everyone buys 2 then we're talking about 750 people. Could be up to 125 people. That's just a guess...

And how. Not an easy calculation to make. We are unspeakably grateful that you and Spyderco successfully make the effort to supply us with the very finest steels, though!

Araignee wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:19 am

TO be complete you'd also have to run a poll on Bladeforums, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Perhaps next time you could create a poll on SurveyMonkey and ask for respondants on all five aficionado avenues ?

Hmm. I see where you're going with that, and sampling more venues would certainly give a larger sample size. I worry about overlap, of multiple voting. The same people are on multiple venues (I know I am!) One person could indicate a buy on five different venues, and it would look like that one person is buying the quantity of five people.

Fortunately the science of sampling doesn't require the largest sample possible, it just requires a sufficiently representative sample. I can't say yet whether the Spyderco forum alone can provide that or not. We should be able to tell after, oh, dunno, maybe 3-5 more releases? Maybe? Tom says 5-10. OK. Depends on the variability we see.

I like the idea of trying to make a prediction like you did, but there just isn't enough data yet.

The Magnacut data needs to get thrown out immediately as an atypical outlier.

Something else to factor in is human attention span. People who are enthused about mules now will drift off in a couple of years. No doubt others will take their place, but it is hard to say how it will all go. I keep reminding myself of how interest in the first round of the mule team faded (don't blame me, I jumped on the wagon just as it was pulling into the station).

All that said, I think the numbers for this past run were just right, and the decision to limit to 1 each was the right call.

Tucson Tom wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:11 pm

I like the idea of trying to make a prediction like you did, but there just isn't enough data yet.

The Magnacut data needs to get thrown out immediately as an atypical outlier.

All that said, I think the numbers for this past run were just right, and the decision to limit to 1 each was the right call.

To your point #1, agree.
To your point #2, do we need to throw it out, or try to adjust for how many might have sold? What if RamZar is correct, that maybe 4000 would have sold? That would put our multiplier around x8.4, not so far off from the SRS13 multiplier of around x9. But, refer to Point #1...not enough data. Problem is, sometimes we don't have the luxury of waiting for a full dataset! And sometimes the analyst (me) is impatient. Bad analyst, bad analyst! Go back to school, learn patience.
To your point #3, yes! It looks like demand was estimated very well for SRS13. Well done, Spyderco.

sal wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:54 pm

Hi Ramonade,

Ramonade wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:09 pm

I might be a bit off topic but I think it's related :

Shouldn't the release of a regular production Mule affect this demand ? People only wanting a "build your own knife kit" might just go for the regular production instead of waiting and prepping for releases.
As Sal said, this might be a certain proportion of sales and (IMHO) certainly not represented by the sample the forum provides.

That's part of the plan in stabilizing the volume.


Btw : the open to a second one after one day rule would kick off most of EU customers since the new obligatory custom fees are not really proportional to the price of the item.

It would probably be more than a day before we could open up numbers.

sal

Good morning Sal,

Thanks for the answers. If it ultimately ends up being several days that would make it more plausible for EU customers to buy a second one yes.

Would love to see the opening up the orders to more than 2 after a day or two. That would be a great solution to let people get at least 1 and let those that want more than one have a chance.

In an effort to simplify the Mule Team manufacture, demand, inventory and purchasing difficulties, I offer to submit my credit card information to be held on file with Spyderco with authorization to purchase two of every future Mule Team released, until I request to be removed from the list. It you're not on the list, you don't have a complaint. Problem solved. Who else is with me on this solution?

You'd also have to agree to a long 'waiting period' to get off the list. Because the steel is ordered well in advance, they'd have to be able to count on you to buy the mule a year or more down the road when it was finally through production.

I'd certainly submit my credit card information for that. I don't know that Spyderco wants to deal with the administration of it, though.

KnifeKnuts wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:14 pm

In an effort to simplify the Mule Team manufacture, demand, inventory and purchasing difficulties, I offer to submit my credit card information to be held on file with Spyderco with authorization to purchase two of every future Mule Team released, until I request to be removed from the list. It you're not on the list, you don't have a complaint. Problem solved. Who else is with me on this solution?

How long is the list? With a bottom end of 500 and a top, so far of 2000, how does one pick the right number for a list?

More importantly, there will be plenty of complaints when the list is full and it takes 2-4 years for an opening on the list to come available. I think a list would discourage new entrants to the Mule Team.

ps can I be on the list too, please?

This list doesn't exist yet. This is just a suggestion to help eliminate the Mule Team challenges that now exist. I currently have 1 or 2 of every Mule Team blade, except for MT14P. I now have 53 Mule blades to use, experiment and collect. None of them are for sale. I've been buying these blades over the past 11-years and instead of getting easier to buy them, it's getting more difficult with each new release. I would like to keep collecting new Mule Team blades until the day that I die. I hate buying these blades from scalpers on the secondary market. This pre-order list proposal seems like a workable solution for Sal and everyone else involved in the Mule Team project. As the list would get longer, additional units could be ordered to meet the increasing demand. A list of buyers committed to purchasing all upcoming Mule releases should help Sal to work up demand quantity projections, well in advance. Imagine receiving all new Mule Team blades delivered to your door without lifting a finger. I simply hope to generate some interest in this suggestion.