Light Blue over Yellow Knife Handle

[JRinFL]

I'm being a realist here, but as things stand there is no way for the Ukraine to win against Russia. This will be a very long insurgency like Afghanistan with lots of blood shed and no clear winners. Unless NATO wishes to test Russian resolve, there will be no troops liberating Ukraine.

[TomAiello]

I agree with your analysis. On the other hand, I was very wrong about how long this war would take. I had thought it would be over by now. In my defense, so did almost every commentator in the world.

If the Ukrainians can make it painful enough for Russia to swallow them, we may see Russia establishing a new border partway through Ukraine and declaring victory. My guess is that if Russia conquers Kiev and the Ukrainian army is still fighting in the west, that's what you'll see. Russia sets up a new border and fortifies it, and leaves a Ukrainian 'rump state' with a capital in Lviv (or somewhere else in what is presently western Ukraine. Strategically, that would be a real mess. There is no way the Ukrainians will stop fighting for Kiev, so (as you say) there would be a very long insurgency based in the western part of the current country.

Interesting and tangentially related article on a Ukrainian historical figure who refused to abandon Kiev: https://theconversation.com/saint-olga- ... nce-178019

[TomAiello]

Thanks, Tom. I don't crypto anything, I'll have to find another way.

I just tried to post this and got a hang up. Apologies if it gets posted twice.


You can use the Cash app (run by Square, which is one of the USA's largest payment providers) to both buy bitcoin and transfer it to any bitcoin address. The process is pretty seamless, and doesn't require you to know very much about crypto.

https://cash.app/help/us/en-us/31021-se ... ng-bitcoin

Basically the app (which is a Venmo competitor) lets you buy bitcoin and send it, all from the app, and denominating the amount in either BTC or USD (whichever you find easier to use).

[TomAiello]

And this next one sure looks legit:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsion ... ebi-armiyi

The above has links from Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... 022-2?op=1) and Jane's (https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... -donations) and ukraine.ua (https://ukraine.ua/news/donate-to-the-nbu-fund/). And it's a solid looking URL with working links at all the many other bank-type linkages it contains. How could a hacker get ahold of bank.gov.ua?

That definitely looks legit to me. There are publicly available speeches by recognizable Ukrainian government authorities naming it. The only way it could go astray is if someone hacked the actual bank account in question, and I think that's likely to be caught and corrected fairly rapidly. Also, if you used a credit card to donate there, the CC company would probably reverse charges if that happened, and then make the payment correctly after the hack was fixed.

[JRinFL]

Russia doesn't look to have committed their tier one or tier two elements yet. From the videos I saw, lots of out dated equipment in use, lots of old tactics. I think Putin thinks he can get Ukraine on the cheap. I'm no expert however.

[TomAiello]

Russia doesn't look to have committed their tier one or tier two elements yet. From the videos I saw, lots of out dated equipment in use, lots of old tactics.

That's definitely puzzling. The Russians have spent the last decade spending heavily to modernize their military, but the photos and videos online don't seem to show much new infantry equipment or armor, and the training level of the ground troops definitely seems on the low side of average. It could be that the Russians are holding more elite units in reserve (anticipating unrest in other areas, maybe? or just holding back to see where they are needed?). The Russian army has been heavily focused on artillery since the time of the Tsars, though. I wonder if the modernized equipment we're not seeing in online postings includes the mobile rocket launchers that are engaged in active bombardment?

[Bolster]

Well bummer. Tried to send over $100 (to bank.gov.ua) as a test --twice-- and got nowhere. Maybe Putin hacked the payment system.

[Bolster]

I'm being a realist here, but as things stand there is no way for the Ukraine to win against Russia.

Yes, that's the likely scenario, but I'm still going to back the blue/yellow. St. Jude Thaddeus, right? Patron saint of desperate situations and lost causes?

My 2¢ is that Russia won't "win" either, becoming the world's pariah.

[TomAiello]

Yes, that's the likely scenario, but I'm still going to back the blue/yellow. St. Jude Thaddeus, right? Patron saint of desperate situations and lost causes?

I think the Ukrainians might prefer Saint Olga of Kiev.

[ChrisinHove]

Putin is clearly making an example of cities like Mariupol, to force a general capitulation. The civilian suffering looks terrible. He’s obviously mad as well as evil - the best he can achieve is capitulation of the Ukrainian state but with an insurgency that will bleed his army white, on top of crippling economic sanctions.

[Bolster]

I don't know if you guys are interested in my attempts to contribute to Ukrainian defense or not, but I'll pretend you are and continue to report my success or failure of same. I understand that we in the West feel safe and this is not an urgent issue to the majority of readers.

My bank.gov.ua attempt went nowhere, three times I tried. Everything looks good, but when I enter my credit card info and press the go button, I get an error.

So next on the list is this:
https://supportukraine.cz/en.html

EDIT: Since I posted this (!!! 10 minutes ago!!!) my browser is now telling me "This website may be impresonating supportukraine.cz to steal your personal or financial information, you should close this page."

Doesn't have as many western links, and requires going to the bank (for me) to send funds. It claims to be the Ukrainian embassy in Prague. There are plenty of links to it, but they seem to be mostly Ukr links. Below is an article called "Sponsor a Tank."

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/articl ... ine-s-army

Here's what I like about it:

"the Czech campaign is the only one to focus specifically on the purchase of weaponry. Money is immediately transferred from the Embassy’s account to arms manufacturers to expedite exports." This account reportedly has received 316 million as of yesterday. An M1A1 costs over 8 million, so...this has potential!

Wish me luck!

EDIT to add:

Follow up: The supportukraine.cz address is also mentioned below:

https://www.facebook.com/UkraineEmbassy ... 4949493113

Discussion on Reddit here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30486613#30487110

will get you close then scroll up a bit.

EDIT: This ^ was all written before I'm getting the hack warning from my browser. I suspect this avenue has been compromised.

[Bolster]

Now investigating my third option down:

https://www.comebackalive.in.ua

Third party links to it from:
https://www.newsweek.com/how-help-peopl ... on-1682235
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Come_Back_Alive
https://www.salisburypost.com/2022/03/0 ... back-home/
https://www.yahoo.com/now/support-peopl ... 30055.html

(This is the organization that pacifist Patreon famously cut off.)

[Bolster]

Super frustrating.

Went to my bank, attempted a SWIFT transfer to the above, after an hour the bank employee (with help from other bank employees) told me "It's not working, and I was informed that we have received a directive not to send any money to the Ukraine."

I guess Putin wins. Apparently he controls USA banks.

I have spent 6 hours researching and attempting to send money to aid the Ukrainian military and have not accomplished a single thing from my efforts.

[sok]

I do appreciate you guys’ concern, but I doubt more than pennies on the dollar would ever reach the Ukrainian people from your contributions. I do like the symbolic gesture of a knife with the Ukrainian flag colors.

I don’t think this will last as long as some think and I don’t think Russia has its eyes on the entirety of Ukraine.

Russia has been promised by NATO, since the fall of the Soviet Union, that it wouldn’t put nukes at its doorstep. That promise seems to be at risk lately so Putin is making a statement about that.

Second, the pro-Russian Ukrainians in the east, that have been bombed and abused by the Neo-Nazis since the 2014 coup, will get annexed into Russia. Putin can’t watch this happen any longer.

I also think there is a large percentage of Ukrainians that are not pro-Russian but want their country back from the globalists that have hijacked them. They will help Russia to expose the globalist crimes and then Putin will return their part of Ukraine back to the people. There are more Ukrainians rooting for Putin than you all think.

I am no expert on this subject and this is just my take. I do pray for the Ukrainian people though.

Here is a couple of examples of the deep state using Ukraine.

This Youtuber gets the date wrong but this video is getting harder and harder to find so I went with it. This happened in 2016. https://youtu.be/S3Ibbq_LG-4

https://timefortruth.blog/2018/04/29/uk ... -revealed/

Here is one a little longer that requires some concentration.
https://archive.ph/1DTdU

[TomAiello]

Bolster, did you try using the Cash app? That might be the easiest.

[ChrisinHove]

I applaud your efforts, Bolster. I think the chances of any cash working how you intend in the time available is slim, however.

The refugees at the borders are largely women & children, apparently. I’m sure their menfolk who have volunteered to take up arms would be equally appreciative of donations to help their families, via Polish & Czech humanitarian charities. They might even fight better in that knowledge.

As for being a “neo-nazi” state, that is just one of the many hideous lies put out by Putin’s propaganda machine to justify his war of conquest and fulfil his deranged dream of a renewed Greater Russia. You will probably find far more neo-nazis in your own country than in a country that suffered so terribly from the real ones, and in living memory.

[cabfrank]

sok, what now? I'm looking for a face palm emoji.

[Bolster]

OK.

I will follow up and have a look at the app Tom mentions. Thanks to those in this thread who tried to help me with my goal.

My goals for this thread were (1) to test the waters to see if Spyderco's customers had any interest in a symbolic knife along the lines of the Endela "thin blue line" knife; and (2) to see if any forum members knew of/had used a support venue specifically for the Ukrainian military (granted, there are lots of venues for general humanitarian aid). In retrospect, I probably should have separated those into different threads. It just kinda morphed.

Frankly, I was not looking for theories on global politics, so if that's where this thread is going, then I may need to exit.

But thanks to all of you who tried to help! I do appreciate it, and I will keep trying to find a way. Next stop is to try my other bank, maybe they're more cooperative.

This could be a soft landing for this thread, and maybe it should be.

[shunsui]

sok, what now? I'm looking for a face palm emoji.

Personally, I like to hear all sides of a story. I don't like censorship.

However, Taz has made it clear she doesn't want to hear this stuff.

So maybe we should respect her request.

[Superflex]

I don't know if you guys are interested in my attempts to contribute to Ukrainian defense or not, but I'll pretend you are and continue to report my success or failure of same. I understand that we in the West feel safe and this is not an urgent issue to the majority of readers.

My bank.gov.ua attempt went nowhere, three times I tried. Everything looks good, but when I enter my credit card info and press the go button, I get an error.

So next on the list is this:
https://supportukraine.cz/en.html

EDIT: Since I posted this (!!! 10 minutes ago!!!) my browser is now telling me "This website may be impresonating supportukraine.cz to steal your personal or financial information, you should close this page."

Doesn't have as many western links, and requires going to the bank (for me) to send funds. It claims to be the Ukrainian embassy in Prague. There are plenty of links to it, but they seem to be mostly Ukr links. Below is an article called "Sponsor a Tank."

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/articl ... ine-s-army

Here's what I like about it:

"the Czech campaign is the only one to focus specifically on the purchase of weaponry. Money is immediately transferred from the Embassy’s account to arms manufacturers to expedite exports." This account reportedly has received 316 million as of yesterday. An M1A1 costs over 8 million, so...this has potential!

Wish me luck!

EDIT to add:

Follow up: The supportukraine.cz address is also mentioned below:

https://www.facebook.com/UkraineEmbassy ... 4949493113

Discussion on Reddit here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30486613#30487110

will get you close then scroll up a bit.

EDIT: This ^ was all written before I'm getting the hack warning from my browser. I suspect this avenue has been compromised.

I am not but clearly you think your view is the only correct view.
If Russia funded a overthrow of the Mexican govt in 2014 as we did in Ukraine and Mexico wanted to install nukes pointed our way, you might feel different.
I guess the 14,000 ethnic Russians slaughtered in the Donbass by the Azov Battalion and other far right Ukrainian groups since 2014 are just numbers to you.