Z-Wear Shaman lookout thread

[brett1081]

Hi Eratus, LLTD, Neatknife, Mtbiker, Mr Meeks, MattyOomps, Ripx,

Welcome to our forum.

Sorry for the frustrations. I believe part of the issue is the recent increase in demand for Spyderco products. Most of these projects are started a year or two before they are released so quantities are "guessed" base on current demand at the time the project begins. We'll have to be more creative.

sal

Another part of the issue is the scalpers are getting better at getting stock ahead of regular buyers. There is a single seller on e-bay now selling 4 of this knife. So many of us can't get one, and this guy alone is selling 4 right now!!

Can I humbly ask that you make a non-sprint version of this knife in brown or green micarta? I get it, will need to be a different steel... stock S30V would be fine...

I'd suggest Denim/K390 or OD Green/AEB-L for a production Shaman. I think either would sell exponentially better than something like Brown/S30V.

I will say too, I personally could have easily picked these up from over a dozen different dealers just from keeping an eye on this thread. I sit at my computer all day for work though so I know this isn't the same for everyone. I helped a few people on here and another forum by selling them some of the extras I picked up at cost plus a few bucks to cover my shipping. So just saying they definitely were not impossible to get at retail if you were motivated. I've seen at few sell on bladeforums for $275 as well, which is only $25 more than you would pay from a dealer after tax (some charge tax, some don't). Its just like anything scarce. If you want a 60" 4K TV for $100 you gotta wait in line on black friday, if you want ammo you gotta camp out in front of Academy Sports.

So it's not that you "can't" get one. It's that you didn't try hard enough and/or weren't motivated enough. You absolutely CAN get one very easily with zero effort. For $320 on ebay. The extra money is probably worth not dealing with the stress and time needed to get one at retail if you make over minimum wage.

That said, I do agree that this should have never been a sprint from the start, and especially not the 2nd time around, but it looks like they understand the demand now and the PM2 is a production model.

Did any online stock last more than 30 minutes? With no announced drop times? This was definitely not easy to get. Glad you have a job that allows you to surf a knife forum 90% of the day though.

[dlum1]

I think it's important for people to state how they missed out. Isn't the purpose of this forum a direct line of communication from Spyderco to it's fans? If the die-hard fans on this forum are missing out, then I think that would be valuable information to Spyderco. After all, it means they hit a home run on demand and potentially missed on some revenue potential. Guesstimating supply and demand is a delicate balance, so all additional information for a predictive model is valuable information. Additionally, simply stating "All of you crying about not getting one" is a tactless statement likely only said due to anonymity of being behind a username. If it can't be said face to face in a crowded room, it probably shouldn't be typed. Granted, a reprimand does have its place, but perhaps alternate wording (such as not to insult fellow users with similar interests on a forum) would be a good idea moving forward. That being said, I considered this model but never had the opportunity to buy one myself. These things sold like hot cakes! I didn't mind so much because I prefer k390, m4, and rex45 to cruwear, but I can certainly understand people's frustration. I wonder if popularity poll would be helpful to Spyderco moving forward? It would need forum members to rate their perceived popularity among standard production models to establish a baseline, then use current sales of those standard models to predict actual numbers for a sprint (based on voted popularity) before a sprint is ordered. Although, that might take some fun out of the surprise, but alternate implementations may work just as well. I'm sure you get the idea.

[beard0x0]

I think it's important for people to state how they missed out. Isn't the purpose of this forum a direct line of communication from Spyderco to it's fans? If the die-hard fans on this forum are missing out, then I think that would be valuable information to Spyderco. After all, it means they hit a home run on demand and potentially missed on some revenue potential. Guesstimating supply and demand is a delicate balance, so all additional information for a predictive model is valuable information. Additionally, simply stating "All of you crying about not getting one" is a tactless statement likely only said due to anonymity of being behind a username. If it can't be said face to face in a crowded room, it probably shouldn't be typed. Granted, a reprimand does have its place, but perhaps alternate wording (such as not to insult fellow users with similar interests on a forum) would be a good idea moving forward. That being said, I considered this model but never had the opportunity to buy one myself. These things sold like hot cakes! I didn't mind so much because I prefer k390, m4, and rex45 to cruwear, but I can certainly understand people's frustration. I wonder if popularity poll would be helpful to Spyderco moving forward? It would need forum members to rate their perceived popularity among standard production models to establish a baseline, then use current sales of those standard models to predict actual numbers for a sprint (based on voted popularity) before a sprint is ordered. Although, that might take some fun out of the surprise, but alternate implementations may work just as well. I'm sure you get the idea.

You need to remember though that part of the "demand" for a sprint run is due to its limited nature - had Spyderco made this easy to obtain because they made many more of them, then that in itself reduces demand (since the "specialness" of the product is not as desirable anymore) and may result in a lot of unsold inventory that nobody wants.

[dlum1]

That's a great point! However, I think the interest in this particular model goes beyond its limited nature. You're certainly correct about the limited nature affecting people's willingness to pull the trigger on a purchase though. Simply knowing this was my last chance peaked my interest in the model, even though cruwear isn't my all-time favorite. I do love micarta handles though... An accurate predictive model would need to include demand as a function of production number (and should predict decrease demand or a plateau in demand as the production number tends toward infinity). Getting the data to try and build a model would likely be difficult enough to prevent trying, but Spyderco has its own forum so it may not be as difficult as it sounds. Regressive models and machine learning are already freely available through Python and R. They just need someone with a little know how. Of course, they may have already done this analysis given a cruwear micarta pm2 is in the works for standard production.

[visionloss]

It would only be doing Spyderco a disservice to discourage any feedback (positive or negative) about the sprint run experience. I ended up being fortunate enough to get a z-wear, but it was a real hustle and there are many different times my career would not have afforded me the necessary flexibility it required. This was my first real sprint run experience, but Ive participated in several "exclusives" drops. I did find the hype entertaining and it even convinced me to join this forum. That said it was more frustrating than fun, and the quality of my z-wear was lower than that of all my other spydercos out of the box. It has a screechy/gritty action.

I definitely prefer the known date/time/place style exclusive drop over all the unknowns of random dealers dropping at random times and random dates all selling out within minutes. Either way I'm a huge Spyderco fan, but this experience probly only hurt their image in my mind. I come more from the firearms world where limited run hype drops are pretty heavily disdained and have hurt some companies reputations over the long run. Not predicting this for Spyderco. I think they are working to acheive a nice equilibrium between all ends of production. Sal chiming in on the forums is really spectacular as well. That's my feedback, big thank you to everyone participating in the forum, even if to just complain. I honestly think that is valid.

[RAHComanche]

[/quote]
Did any online stock last more than 30 minutes? With no announced drop times? This was definitely not easy to get. Glad you have a job that allows you to surf a knife forum 90% of the day though.
[/quote]

I bet this pithy statement gets to the heart of what many Spyderco customers feel. Getting this knife was basically a lottery. I would be surprised if that was Sal's intent. But one begins to wonder when there was so little transparency in the process, e.g. we have made x number, they have gone out to dealers, there are no more drops at SFO, most of the dealers have sold out now. A few company announcements would make things so much easier for everyone.

Even now, do I keep F5'ing refresh? I have better things to do.

[Cricket Bite]

You need to remember though that part of the "demand" for a sprint run is due to its limited nature - had Spyderco made this easy to obtain because they made many more of them, then that in itself reduces demand (since the "specialness" of the product is not as desirable anymore) and may result in a lot of unsold inventory that nobody wants.

IMHO the demand for this show the demand for a hard working steel on a knife that is made for hard use. Nothing wrong with s30v but Zwear and Cruwear seem to fit this model very well and judging by demand many other people feel the same way. Also I don’t feel “most” of the demand was form scarcity. Just a good knife with a good steel and good handle material. Models like this may point to regular production of like model more than scarcity sales.

[camvdcs]

Getting the Z-Wear Shaman did take some work monitoring the dealer websites and this forum. I eventually got one. But the Cru-wear Shaman was just next to impossible to get online unless you had some bots running. Never did get a Cru-wear Shaman and that was the most frustrating task I ever had hunting for a SPRINT.

[Perhaps_OCD?]

Double

[Perhaps_OCD?]

That's a great point! However, I think the interest in this particular model goes beyond its limited nature. You're certainly correct about the limited nature affecting people's willingness to pull the trigger on a purchase though. Simply knowing this was my last chance peaked my interest in the model, even though cruwear isn't my all-time favorite. I do love micarta handles though... An accurate predictive model would need to include demand as a function of production number (and should predict decrease demand or a plateau in demand as the production number tends toward infinity). Getting the data to try and build a model would likely be difficult enough to prevent trying, but Spyderco has its own forum so it may not be as difficult as it sounds. Regressive models and machine learning are already freely available through Python and R. They just need someone with a little know how. Of course, they may have already done this analysis given a cruwear micarta pm2 is in the works for standard production.

Love it! I do this type of modeling, analysis, and consulting for a living, and like you, have often thought about this. I personally don’t think it would take a very advanced model to get better than their current state of selling out in 5 minutes; every time. This assumes Spyderco’s intent would be to indeed make sprints more available.

A possibly more simple solution, that doesn't require a consultant or inhouse analysts, would be preorders. Plenty of us knife guys wait years for custom (or even mid tech) knives. Many of us waited patiently for a year for a second chance at a micarta shaman with Cruwear or similar steel and didn’t get it; despite having alerts set and monitoring news letters of every vendor (the normal way of finding out about releases of basically everything else in the world). I’d gladly pay up front and wait however long it takes. I’ve been waiting on my replacement Paysan from them for almost 2 years and don’t care how long it takes. As long as that knife is in my collection eventually. :D

I'm sure some people would complain about their pre-orders taking too long to ship, but people are already complaining with this current system. At least with pre-orders those that really want the knife get it, and Spyderco gets cash up front to mitigate the risk of overshooting demand.






I don’t post much here and I’m sure people will pile on because of it, but Spyderco obviously made a mistake, and underestimated demand, a second time on the same dang knife. I think it's OK for people (like myself) to be a little upset about that. All companies make mistakes. I hope they get better. I'm still going to love them a much as I do Apple, Milwaukee Tools, and Nintendo (they're similar if you look closely). :)

I’ll pick one up off of eBay and feed the frenzy. I want a Shaman in my collection bad enough, and also think an S30v Shaman is "meh" enough, to give in. Haha


Sal - 3v Brown Micarta Shaman please! :D I will trade you the replacement Paysan I'm waiting on or pay cash right now! LOL!

[Mr Meeks]

That's a great point! However, I think the interest in this particular model goes beyond its limited nature. You're certainly correct about the limited nature affecting people's willingness to pull the trigger on a purchase though. Simply knowing this was my last chance peaked my interest in the model, even though cruwear isn't my all-time favorite. I do love micarta handles though... An accurate predictive model would need to include demand as a function of production number (and should predict decrease demand or a plateau in demand as the production number tends toward infinity). Getting the data to try and build a model would likely be difficult enough to prevent trying, but Spyderco has its own forum so it may not be as difficult as it sounds. Regressive models and machine learning are already freely available through Python and R. They just need someone with a little know how. Of course, they may have already done this analysis given a cruwear micarta pm2 is in the works for standard production.

Love it! I do this type of modeling, analysis, and consulting for a living, and like you, have often thought about this. I personally don’t think it would take a very advanced model to get better than their current state of selling out in 5 minutes; every time. This assumes Spyderco’s intent would be to indeed make sprints more available.

A possibly more simple solution, that doesn't require a consultant or inhouse analysts, would be preorders. Plenty of us knife guys wait years for custom (or even mid tech) knives. Many of us waited patiently for a year for a second chance at a micarta shaman with Cruwear or similar steel and didn’t get it; despite having alerts set and monitoring news letters of every vendor (the normal way of finding out about releases of basically everything else in the world). I’d gladly pay up front and wait however long it takes. I’ve been waiting on my replacement Paysan from them for almost 2 years and don’t care how long it takes. As long as that knife is in my collection eventually. :D

I'm sure some people would complain about their pre-orders taking too long to ship, but people are already complaining with this current system. At least with pre-orders those that really want the knife get it, and Spyderco gets cash up front to mitigate the risk of overshooting demand.






I don’t post much here and I’m sure people will pile on because of it, but Spyderco obviously made a mistake, and underestimated demand, a second time on the same dang knife. I think it's OK for people (like myself) to be a little upset about that.

I’ll pick one up off of eBay and feed the frenzy. I want a Shaman in my collection bad enough, and also think an S30v Shaman is "meh" enough, to give in. Haha


Sal - 3v Brown Micarta Shaman please! :D I will trade you the replacement Paysan I'm waiting on or pay cash right now! LOL!

+1
Wouldn't mind a micarta & supersteel combo either...

[tbdoc4kids]

I wonder if a PD 1 and brown Micarta Shaman will be coming down the pike eventually. Meanwhile how about some other models and colors to tease the masses?

[Perhaps_OCD?]

I wonder if a PD 1 and brown Micarta Shaman will be coming down the pike eventually. Meanwhile how about some other models and colors to tease the masses?

No colors until everyone gets brown micarta!

Jk- what colors are you thinking? I saw someone mention denim and that sounds kind of bad ***.

[SpyderGrill]

*EDITED - TazKristi*

[visionloss]

Is this the Alert thread or the Hurt thread?

All you crybabies will end Sprint runs because if everybody cant have it, its not fair. Just like everything else going on right now.

I bet most complaining are office workers where a Shaman would come in handy opening vanilla envelopes.

I wish David Canterbury had one and do a review on it

My favorite tv show, LIVEPD was cancelled to appease your ***. Dont matter that law enforcement was being recorded live

Chill bud. Pretty sure they aren't going to cancel sprint runs because a loyal customer base dares to provide honest feedback about the reality of the experience.

To your other point, who do you even imagine has the time or flexibility to hunt down sprint runs? When I was working construction, law enforcement, active duty military, etc. I definitely didn't have the time or money to play this game.

[Sharp Guy]

I said early on this was going to happen. After the Cruwear/Micarta Shaman dropped there was lots of kicking and stomping because the demand was high and not everyone could have one. So Sal tries to do the right thing and does another huge run of basically the same knife. Turns out the same thing happened and people are kicking and stomping again. I'm really surprised by how long it's gone on. Geez get a grip it's only a pocket knife. The FOMO is really strong with some of you. Guess what, sometimes sprint and excusive runs are hard to get. That's what makes them so sought after. Not everyone will be able to get one. If that's you suck it up and move on. There'll be other cool knives coming

[TkoK83Spy]

I said early on this was going to happen. After the Cruwear/Micarta Shaman dropped there was lots of kicking and stomping because the demand was high and not everyone could have one. So Sal tries to do the right thing and does another huge run of basically the same knife. Turns out the same thing happened and people are kicking and stomping again. I'm really surprised by how long it's gone on. Geez get a grip it's only a pocket knife. The FOMO is really strong with some of you. Guess what, sometimes sprint and excusive runs are hard to get. That's what makes them so sought after. Not everyone will be able to get one. If that's you suck it up and move on. There'll be other cool knives coming

I've got to agree here as well. I've had FOMO on a handful of knives and felt elated to land a few of them. But guess what?? After a year or so, said knife suddenly wasn't that important anymore, (multiple St Nicks and BHQ exclusives, Rex45 Para 3, REC PM2 to name a few) I had other knives with similar properties and those knives became expendable and I sold them. At first I was hesitant about a few of them and felt funny selling them, but guess what...as time went on I honestly don't miss any of them! Plenty of other knives to go around to keep me, or anybody else happy!

Funny, the only knife I've sold that I truly miss is my GB2...a production model!

[JRinFL]

Many of us wanted Cruwear (or PD1, Z-wear) and micarta combination as a regular production model. We are getting it in a PM2, but nothing else so far. I'm still confused as to how it is a good thing to not sell the configuration that the customers want.

[awa54]

It seems like the issue here is that in times past, a 600 or 1200 unit Sprint would satisfy demand and then some... obviously that's not the case anymore. This is compounded by flippers and a significant number of buyers who want a user knife and "one back" for the collection.

The conundrum is how to deal fairly with the users, collectors, loyal distributors/dealers and Spyderco, while not feeding the trolls (flippers). As a user (yes my Spyderco stable is a collection, but that's not my focus and I only have a few duplicates), who works retail (hard to keep checking availability *and* keep my job!), I'd love to see Spyderco do prepaid pre-orders directly, but that would be a kick in the teeth to everyone down the retail chain, so that scenario is unlikely.

The other issue lurking under the surface here is the difference in white collar vs. blue collar ability to camp in the virtual line to get these knives, the current system is essentially turning Sprints into an exclusive/luxury item, which obviously doesn't sit well with everyone here.

I don't know what the solution is, but maybe a "Limited run" thats final numbers are determined over a year of active release (possibly with a 5-10k cap to preserve some of the exclusivity?) might work for both buyers and Spyderco? Not *as* exclusive, but still a one-time release and the reduced chances of inflated secondary market prices would disincentivize the flippers, plus a knockout seller like this knife obviously is would still have the potential to be a big money maker for both Spyderco and retailers.

I hate to say it, but I gave up on this one before it even dropped, the number of new users who joined the forum to get updates told the tale all too well.

Good luck to all if there's another drop of these...

[Sharp Guy]

I said early on this was going to happen. After the Cruwear/Micarta Shaman dropped there was lots of kicking and stomping because the demand was high and not everyone could have one. So Sal tries to do the right thing and does another huge run of basically the same knife. Turns out the same thing happened and people are kicking and stomping again. I'm really surprised by how long it's gone on. Geez get a grip it's only a pocket knife. The FOMO is really strong with some of you. Guess what, sometimes sprint and excusive runs are hard to get. That's what makes them so sought after. Not everyone will be able to get one. If that's you suck it up and move on. There'll be other cool knives coming

I've got to agree here as well. I've had FOMO on a handful of knives and felt elated to land a few of them. But guess what?? After a year or so, said knife suddenly wasn't that important anymore, (multiple St Nicks and BHQ exclusives, Rex45 Para 3, REC PM2 to name a few) I had other knives with similar properties and those knives became expendable and I sold them. At first I was hesitant about a few of them and felt funny selling them, but guess what...as time went on I honestly don't miss any of them! Plenty of other knives to go around to keep me, or anybody else happy!

Funny, the only knife I've sold that I truly miss is my GB2...a production model!

I know I've been saying this for awhile now but chasing the sprints & exclusives for the typical models has lost a lot of it's appeal for me. I haven't sold any of mine yet but a lot of them rarely get carried/used and it seems like more versions just keep coming. My Cruwear/Micarta Shaman does so I get why people are uptight. When I carry a PM2 I usually grab my grey G10 Cruwear or the OD green/DLC S30V one. All the others are mostly taking up space in my knife box. Same with my Para 3s, Delicas, & some others. I'm actually more into the Taichung models now just because they're so different. Anyways, I've also missed out on a couple that I wanted. So I do understand the frustration but it really does go away when you realize there something else coming along or that you already have all the knives you need.