Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Naperville » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:38 pm

emanuel wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:44 pm
Any official numbers on the mortality rate? Is it again one of those strains that only kill immunocompromised people, children and old folks? Couldn't find anything online, but given that SARS had it at round 7% and how similar they are, they couldn't be close, probably a bit higher. It would be pretty bad but not even close to what all the media makes it out to be. The only issue is the incompetence of the Chinese state being more concerned about their image than keeping this under control. Sigh, what more can be expected from communists..?
I have not seen anything yet on pct of people dying from 2019-nCoV, and I read as much as I can every day.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... ing-probed

CDC: 110 suspected nCoV cases in 26 (USA) states being probed

73 cases pending
As of today, lab tests have confirmed 5 US infections, and 32 cases have been ruled negative, with 73 cases pending.

"The 110 PUI number is cumulative, and it will only increase," said Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease. "We know that risk depends on exposure," she said.

"We have a handful of patients, but at this time the virus is not spreading in the community. The immediate health risk to the general public in the US is low at this time."

The CDC also announced it will update case counts on its 2019-nCoV website on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, beginning today.


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... l-epidemic

Experts: nCoV spread in China's cities could trigger global epidemic

Projection of 44,000 Wuhan cases
At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the city's cases will double over the next 6 days.

Media reports detailed the estimates from Gabriel Leung, MD, MPH, and Joseph Wu, PhD, both with the HKU medical school. The scientists also posted their slide presentation on HKU's website.

They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely symptomatic and the others are still in the incubation period.

They warned 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic and that sustained human-to-human spread is already occurring in major Chinese cities. They said Chinese cities should take "substantial, draconian" measures to limit population mobility, such as cancelling mass gatherings, schools closures, and implementing work-from-home arrangements.

The experts added, however, that quarantines would have limited impact. Leung and Wu urged areas with the closest travel links to China to be ready to deploy their preparedness plans on short notice.

Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from Wuhan—which is central China's transportation hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most affected city, becaue of its strong transport ties to Wuhan. They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.

China's nCoV cases pass MERS total
In its latest update, the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) reported 769 new cases in 30 of the country's 33 provinces and administrative regions, raising the official overall total to 2,744. Lisa Gralinski, PhD, a coronavirus researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, noted on Twitter last night that the 2019-nCoV total has already topped that of MERS-CoV, which at nearly 2,500 cases since 2012 continues to sicken people, mostly in Saudi Arabia (see today's CIDRAP News scan).


https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/ ... s-spreads/

Stores Across U.S. Sell Out of Face Masks, Hand Sanitizer as Coronavirus Spreads

Brooklyn, New York–Stores are running out of personal care products consumers are buying in an attempt to ward off the Wuhan coronavirus.

At least three pharmacies visited by Breitbart News in Brooklyn, N.Y. were sold out of individual-sized hand sanitizer this weekend. A Target store located at Brooklyn’s Atlantic Terminal was also sold out. Target’s website reported none were available for delivery in Brooklyn.

Disposable surgical face masks were also unavailable on Sunday at those stores.

Amazon said that it could deliver hand sanitizer by Wednesday. An Amazon page for ‘flu masks’ showed many of the most popular versions of surgical masks and personal anti-dust masks were unavailable.

The unavailability of these items is likely tied to heightened purchases by consumers due to fears of the Wuhan coronavirus. It is not yet clear how widespread such shortages are.

“Everyone was buying those pocket bottles because of the China flu,” an employee at one Brooklyn seller told Breitbart. The employee asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to news media.

Masks and sanitizer shortages are reportedly widespread in Asia, with some sellers significantly increasing prices in reaction to intense demand.

Update: Shortages of face masks have been reported in Chicago. From the Chicago Tribune:

On the eve of Lunar New Year, a time meant for celebration with family and arguably the most important Chinese holiday, many Chinatown residents found themselves instead standing in line to buy bright blue boxes of face masks, seeking to protect themselves from the coronavirus after the first case was confirmed in Chicago.

By early afternoon Friday, the lone Walgreens in Chinatown was sold out. Meanwhile, some events celebrating Lunar New Year were canceled, and restaurant owners in the community complained of waning business.
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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Naperville » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:40 pm

My raw numbers, based on research

60+ million travelers to China per year(2015 numbers), from all over the globe.

Global travel to China was 5 million per month in December, when the breakout began
Global travel to China was 5 million per month in January.

Sooooo.... all of these people are potential carriers at a minimum, plus everyone that they have come in to contact with.



https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... h-2019.pdf

Table 2
US - travel TO Far East, yr of 2018, avg 3,100,000 per month.

Google Says: The following countries are considered to be located in the Far East: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Japan,North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, Siberia, Taiwan, Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Malaysia,Laos, Indonesia, Myanmar, Singapore,Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby wrdwrght » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm

Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-naught has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
Last edited by wrdwrght on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm

I have a whole case of hand sanitizer. :)

I do normally keep some around due to just normal things like going to the store etc.

I also keep alcohol and bleach around too, wiping things down etc.

Also use bleach to sterilize water containers etc. And can add a few drops into water to keep it fresh for long storage.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Naperville » Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm

wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:08 pm

Naperville wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm
wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

That's accurate, WHO, CDC etc are the sources.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby emanuel » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:33 am

Ankerson wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:11 pm
They did react fast in trying to contain it and them being a Communist country is the only reason why they could react as fast as they did doing what they had to.
In the first vital days of the outbreak at the end of december they were too busy saving face/covering-up and arresting doctors talking about it instead of enacting Quarantine measures. This was confirmed by leaks on Weibo of private chats between doctors.
Ankerson wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:11 pm
They can lock things down much faster and more securely than other countries can.
Not really. If you know/pay the right people they'll turn a blind eye and allow you to do whatever. That's how those 300 Chinese with dual citizenship returned from Wuhan to Great Britain and they can't be found while the government there begs them to self-quarantine on national television lol. Corruption is king in communist countries and as long as you know the right apparatchik literally everything is possible for you, I know because I live in one that used to be. It's a thing that heals very slowly.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:07 am

Naperville wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm
wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/


Hasn't been updated yet today.

Although the news said cases have gone up a lot, waiting for the official numbers...

3M has ramped up production on masks due to increased demand around the world while experts say they really aren't much help.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby James Y » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:20 am


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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:24 am

James Y wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:20 am
This is not surprising...

https://mashable.com/article/racist-fak ... ion-china/

Jim

Yeah, there is a lot of fake news about it around already.

But if people know better they know viruses don't work like that.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby James Y » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:28 am

Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:24 am
James Y wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:20 am
This is not surprising...

https://mashable.com/article/racist-fak ... ion-china/

Jim

Yeah, there is a lot of fake news about it around already.

But if people know better they know viruses don't work like that.
Yeah. Unfortunately, it was only a matter of (short) time before the racists would start rearing their ugly heads.

Jim

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:30 am

James Y wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:28 am
Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:24 am
James Y wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:20 am
This is not surprising...

https://mashable.com/article/racist-fak ... ion-china/

Jim

Yeah, there is a lot of fake news about it around already.

But if people know better they know viruses don't work like that.
Yeah. Unfortunately, it was only a matter of (short) time before the racists would start rearing their ugly heads.

Jim

Viruses don't discriminate, everyone is equally eligible.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:01 pm

Update:

China agrees to accept help from WHO.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-who-help

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby James Y » Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:07 pm

Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:01 pm
Update:

China agrees to accept help from WHO.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-who-help
That’s good news. I wish they had accepted it sooner, but it’s clear that China’s initial refusals had been an attempt to ‘save face’. Even though I’m aware that it’s a cultural thing in many countries, IMO, the obsession with saving face is toxic, especially when it negatively affects the well-being of everyone else.

Jim

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:10 pm

James Y wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:07 pm
Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:01 pm
Update:

China agrees to accept help from WHO.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-who-help
That’s good news. I wish they had accepted it sooner, but it’s clear that China’s initial refusals had been an attempt to ‘save face’. Even though I’m aware that it’s a cultural thing in many countries, IMO, the obsession with saving face is toxic, especially when it negatively affects the well-being of everyone else.

Jim


Looks like they figured out they can't handle it on their own.

This is a big step towards answers... hopefully.

I doubt that it will slow things down, but they will have a larger number of people to test etc. Whatever happens they are still months, maybe years away from a vaccine if they can even develop one.

It should give them more ideas/facts on how it spreads etc.

That will give them more facts on how to possibly contain it.

I say let the WHO and CDC do their jobs, they will figure it out.

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Naperville » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:31 pm

Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:07 am
Naperville wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm
wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
Hasn't been updated yet today.

Although the news said cases have gone up a lot, waiting for the official numbers...

3M has ramped up production on masks due to increased demand around the world while experts say they really aren't much help.
GIS Data updated just minutes ago.

For the masks to be useful they really need to be P100's and you need to have a good fit and be shown how to properly wear and use the mask. The P100's are 99.7% efficient. I think the P95's are 93% efficient. This is all with 3 micron. You need to wear the mask all day, and not touch your face.

I just rcvd my order for P100 filters that go on a full face shield/mask. This covers the eyes and mouth, which is the best that you can expect. The P100 filters are good for more than 24hrs. I don't think this is spreading terribly fast in the USA. Might have another month or two to stock up on filters and masks before we need them. If I end up not using these items, they will remain good for 5 to 10 yrs.
Spyderco Collection: Military (S110V), Bob Lum Darn Dao(CPM-154), Yojimbo 2 (1 in S30V & 2 in 20CV), Sustain(20CV), Native 5(Maxamet), Jumpmaster 2(H1), Province(4V). SHORT LIST: CF Shaman(S90V), Lum Tanto, Native Chief(?), Street Beat (4V at 60+ HRC).

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:58 pm

Naperville wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:31 pm
Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:07 am
Naperville wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm
wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
Hasn't been updated yet today.

Although the news said cases have gone up a lot, waiting for the official numbers...

3M has ramped up production on masks due to increased demand around the world while experts say they really aren't much help.
GIS Data updated just minutes ago.

For the masks to be useful they really need to be P100's and you need to have a good fit and be shown how to properly wear and use the mask. The P100's are 99.7% efficient. I think the P95's are 93% efficient. This is all with 3 micron. You need to wear the mask all day, and not touch your face.

I just rcvd my order for P100 filters that go on a full face shield/mask. This covers the eyes and mouth, which is the best that you can expect. The P100 filters are good for more than 24hrs. I don't think this is spreading terribly fast in the USA. Might have another month or two to stock up on filters and masks before we need them. If I end up not using these items, they will remain good for 5 to 10 yrs.

I saw that, it's getting ready to really explode and spread, those numbers will skyrocket soon. The infected area is just too large and the population is too dense for it not to happen.


You might need them only if you have to go out and will be around people.

Another month or two will tell the tail.

Gives us plenty of time to get what we might need if we are missing anything.

The biggest thing is not to go out at all if it gets bad, avoiding people period.

Those who live in apartments etc might have more issues than those who live in houses as far as getting infected goes.

Those who live in large cities will not be in great shape if this thing really hits, one of the main reasons never to live in or near a large city. I despise large cities with a passion for a lot of reasons.... And none of them are good things...

Large cities are the 1st thing they will lock down to keep it contained, if people live in one or just happen to be there they will be stuck there until it's over. It will happen fast and with no warning... All communications will be cut off, that includes cell phones as per SOP. The quarantined areas will be under Military control until it's over. Hopefully it won't come to that, but that is what will happen. The Army is equipped and trained for situations like this.

It's the population density thing I was talking about before, it is a problem....

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:20 pm

Naperville wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:31 pm
Ankerson wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:07 am
Naperville wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 pm
wrdwrght wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Saw today that <3% of of some 2800 known cases have died, but projecting this rate on a final outcome would be foolish.

EDIT: Even the R-ought has to be questioned if, as the Chinese seem to think, a carrier can be contagious (up to 14 days) before becoming symptomatic.
A lot of data below regarding infections, deaths and those that recovered. I do not know where they get their data from, nor do I know how accurate it is, but it is getting a lot of publicity on forums tracking the outbreak.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

AHHHA! I needed to click the logo at the top left for the "about" tab.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
Hasn't been updated yet today.

Although the news said cases have gone up a lot, waiting for the official numbers...

3M has ramped up production on masks due to increased demand around the world while experts say they really aren't much help.
GIS Data updated just minutes ago.

For the masks to be useful they really need to be P100's and you need to have a good fit and be shown how to properly wear and use the mask. The P100's are 99.7% efficient. I think the P95's are 93% efficient. This is all with 3 micron. You need to wear the mask all day, and not touch your face.

I just rcvd my order for P100 filters that go on a full face shield/mask. This covers the eyes and mouth, which is the best that you can expect. The P100 filters are good for more than 24hrs. I don't think this is spreading terribly fast in the USA. Might have another month or two to stock up on filters and masks before we need them. If I end up not using these items, they will remain good for 5 to 10 yrs.

It just updated again, went up again quite a bit from the last time...

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Bloke » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:05 am

Tonight’s movie on one of our major free to air Channels.

Image

Couldn’t have done better myself! :cool:

Ah, hahaha, ah, hahaha, ah, hahaha! :)
A day without laughter is a day wasted. ~ Charlie Chaplin

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Re: Corona Virus, Chinese Origin, Now In the USA

Postby Ankerson » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:32 am

Bloke wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:05 am
Tonight’s movie on one of our major free to air Channels.

Image

Couldn’t have done better myself! :cool:

Ah, hahaha, ah, hahaha, ah, hahaha! :)

Good movie. :) :cool:


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