North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

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SpyderEdgeForever
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North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#1

Post by SpyderEdgeForever »

I would like to keep this as non-political as possible, and have it more or less related to how big a true and serious threat level are the North Korean military threats to the USA, Europe, and other allies.

What are your views on this, my fellow Spyderfolks? I read and hear all these back and forth threats and claims about them and how now the N Koreans claim they have developed "advanced hydrogen bombs" that can be fitted onto ICBMs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north ... SKCN1BD0VW

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north ... SKCN1BD0VW

Do you think it is more or less a form of hollow threat that they would never intend to actually attempt to carry out, and they just want to put a scare on America and other countries, or, do you think at some point they (the North Korean military dictatorship under Kim Jong Un) would seriously consider going through with an actual attack against us?

And, IF they were to attempt to carry out an actual military attack, using either conventional or nuclear based weapons, what type of real-world response would the US and other world militaries respond to them with? Would America nuke them back or use conventional bombs to retaliate/get justice, or what?


On a sortof unrelated front, when it comes to knives and cutlery, if you were to speculate, what do you think North Korean knife-making industry is like, as far as quality of steel and design variations go? Since they are a state-controlled society, they probably tightly control how that goes?
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#2

Post by El Gato »

There seems to be a great deal of "saber rattling" going on both sides. N.K. has a relatively young "leader", (perhaps not quite the correct term ....), who lacks the wisdom of maturity and may feel he has to prove himself to his people and country. Not having served militarily in the Korean Theater I am not able to comment with much first hand knowledge, but as with all things in life it pays to be vigilant and prepared. As an individual citizen, all I can do is hope that my government and military is as prepared nationally as I am personally to the extent I reasonably can be.

While it is never possible to be fully prepared for all variations of emergencies, natural or otherwise, and the most important survival equipment is what one carries between one's ears, in my opinion that is no excuse not to Plan, Prepare, & Practice, emergency preparedness. The current situation with N.K. is just another reminder to give some serious thought to "What if .....?"

"Eternal Vigilance Is The Price Of Freedom".

Dave
Last edited by El Gato on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#3

Post by JD Spydo »

Where the heck is Dennis Rodman when we need him most :eek: :D But seriously I have also been closely monitoring North Korea's psycho-dictator who is truly void of any grim reality>> not to mention lacking any semblance of common sense :rolleyes: .

But this is truly a powder keg that just can't be ignored any longer. Giving that kid total power over a nation that has been ****-bent for a long time was a horrible mistake :( . And nuclear weapons which he deems to be nothing more than a video game he plays on his laptop :eek: .

I hope that President Trump is being well advised and I truly hope that the Pentagon is ahead of the game on this one>> or else we've got one horrendous mess on our hands :(

As nutty as that kid is maybe it would be a good idea to send Dennis Rodman back again :rolleyes: :D
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#4

Post by ChrisinHove »

Although the Mutually Assured Destruction doctrines worked between nuclear armed nations in the Cold War, can it be trusted to work when one side is, apparently, totally unhinged and occupying an alternative reality?

It all depends upon whether China cut's him loose. That could well be the green light for pre-emptive action by the United States, but is highly unlikely without it.

Scary times.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#5

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Nukes have long been a bargaining chip for NK...They've becomed conditioned like Pavlov's dog that once they start barking, the world tosses them some kibble...I feel like it's the same even today.

The only catch is that the current POTUS seems to have taken a hard line against any kind of a subsidy or anything resembling a "pay off" to keep the peace. Behind the scenes-- who knows? :confused:

So combine Kim's MO of squeaking until he gets a little oil with a now <seemingly> more inflexible LOTFW-- and Kim may be setting himself up for a "decapitation" type outcome for himself. Both men may be painting themselves into a corner with each passing salvo.

I couldn't imagine anyone in the upper echelons of NK gov't. who wouldn't welcome, or at least, not obstruct such a move. Heck, there may even be a few sympathizers in Kim's inner circle working on a Trojan horse right now-- including some of his own family.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#6

Post by JD Spydo »

paladin wrote:Nukes have long been a bargaining chip for NK...They've becomed conditioned like Pavlov's dog that once they start barking, the world tosses them some kibble...I feel like it's the same even today.

The only catch is that the current POTUS seems to have taken a hard line against any kind of a subsidy or anything resembling a "pay off" to keep the peace. Behind the scenes-- who knows? :confused:

So combine Kim's MO of squeaking until he gets a little oil with a now <seemingly> more inflexible LOTFW-- and Kim may be setting himself up for a "decapitation" type outcome for himself. Both men may be painting themselves into a corner with each passing salvo.

I couldn't imagine anyone in the upper echelons of NK gov't. who wouldn't welcome, or at least, not obstruct such a move. Heck, there may even be a few sympathizers in Kim's inner circle working on a Trojan horse right now-- including some of his own family.
That's a really well thought out rundown Paladin and I mostly agree with everything you stated. With this arrogant tyrant there are factors of just outright narcissism, mental illness, and just an outright Hitlerian megaloamannia we're dealing with here like we haven't been faced with probably since the day's of Idi Amin :eek:

I have a really good friend who I've known since early childhood who is a Missionary in southeast Asia and he tells me that many of the government's over there are deeply concerned because there is just no reasoning with this guy at all :(

He also told me that he is about 98% certain that the rumors that Kim literally fed his blood uncle to dozens of dangerous, ravenous hungry dogs is true from what his sources have told him. And like I said earlier we haven't dealt with a power-drunk deranged idiot of this degree since the nightmarish days of Idi Amin.

And of all the most weird twisted ironies when we sent Dennis Rodman over there to calm him down it actually got good results>>> yeah it was just temporary but he did calm down a bit at that time. His dad was a sicko himself but this kid is exponentially more dangerous and far more out of control than his dad ever was at his worst. GOD Help US!! is all I can say at this point. President Trump has his hands full on this one I can assure you.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#7

Post by The Mastiff »

Dennis Rodman was refused permission to visit by North Korea.

They have threatened the most and the loudest when they were facing famines. They got Bill Clinton to give them food for their starving people one time and that has been their MO ever since. This time they are not trying to get anything from us but are banking on the new leader just elected in South Korea. They figure that our president is too busy being attacked by the other party here to be effective at getting in their way and the new South Korean President is what we would call a liberal or a progressive. In other words he sees a person he ( Kim) (can try to) manipulate. They already got him to cave in on the THAAD deployment we ( the US) had already begun on. He stopped it calling for an "environmental assessment ". Now is the perfect time for the Kim's to act up.It has been working to their way of thinking. They want more sacks of food thy can relabel to give to their people like they did last time , saying "US war Reparations" for the US crimes in starting the Korean war. :eek:

Nations tend to grow up and act more rationally when they become nuclear powers because of the responsibilities and dangers that come along with it. There has been no sign of this with NK leading many to even doubt the validity of NK's claims about it's abilities. Kim's have always run the NK state like a mafia boss rather than a governmental head so perhaps they really do mean the stuff they say. No one in the past has made the kinds of threats they have because it is so dangerous to do so. Making nuclear threats against the United states is a very, very stupid thing to do. He has crossed a line and sealed his regime's fate IMO. Now it's just a matter of details and statistics ( when deaths come in the millions they cease being tragedies and become mere statistics). How long they have left is unknown to me but they have made themselves more of a problem than a useful tool to China and with us they undoubtedly are being targeted every minute of every day waiting for whatever sign our decision makers are waiting on. No, I'm not talking about a full scale nuclear strike though that certainly is a possibility. Just not the most likely one. When a country proves they have nukes ( the test) and continues making threats against the US that isn't showing how big his balls are. That is simulating , or actually being insane. Not a smart thing to do if you have an arsenal of warheads. It just increases your likelihood of meeting an untimely death.

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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#8

Post by SpyderEdgeForever »

Thank you all for the very astute and insightful responses. I have a related question regarding N Korea: At this point, realistically what sort of scenario would it take in order for there to be a coup in the country that replaces Kim Jong Un and all of his close loyal supporters, with a more rational leadership, that would stop all attempts and threats against the West and S Korea, and would be willing to sit down and have rational peace/truce talks and discussions?

I have been told that an American Revolution-style coup is out of the question because even though there are masses of people who have to be fed up with his abuse and maltreatment of them, they are not organized, equipped, and nourished enough to successfully carry such a thing out. That basically what it would take would be for the military generals and others to remove him and his supporters directly, and swiftly.

What are your thoughts on something along those lines?
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#9

Post by JD Spydo »

I really appreciate Mastiff's insight on the subject. It appears to me that he has a lot knowledge on military stuff period. Because I'm not as up on military type stuff as I would like to be. But there is a website that I follow i.e. www.stevequayle.com his website has a lot of timely bulletins from all over the planet and I get bits and pieces of info from his website.

There are two elements in all of this North Korea debacle that I find kind of weird needless to say. First of all it seems like they are trying to intimidate Japan even more than their main foe South Korea>> I've found that to be very strange. It would seem that there is something strange going on between them and Japan that I've yet to figure :confused:

Also their obsession to be a royal pain to the USA doesn't seem rational either>> for them to threaten the USA is just stupid in my humble opinion. It would be like myself wanting to pick a fight with Mike Tyson or Floyd Mayweather :rolleyes: There's just nothing about their sabre rattling that adds up to me at all :confused: I hope he's all talk and it seems like he has been up till now>> but on the other hand he is not rational at all and that truly is cause for concern and a lot of it. Because no one will ultimately win any nuclear confrontation and that I'm sure of. I do hope and pray that there is some solution to all of this.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#10

Post by ChrisinHove »

SpyderEdgeForever wrote:Thank you all for the very astute and insightful responses. I have a related question regarding N Korea: At this point, realistically what sort of scenario would it take in order for there to be a coup in the country that replaces Kim Jong Un and all of his close loyal supporters, with a more rational leadership, that would stop all attempts and threats against the West and S Korea, and would be willing to sit down and have rational peace/truce talks and discussions?

I have been told that an American Revolution-style coup is out of the question because even though there are masses of people who have to be fed up with his abuse and maltreatment of them, they are not organized, equipped, and nourished enough to successfully carry such a thing out. That basically what it would take would be for the military generals and others to remove him and his supporters directly, and swiftly.

What are your thoughts on something along those lines?
You only have to read some of the literature coming out of the Eastern Bloc in the Soviet era to understand what "totalitarian" really means. The individual has no chance against that sort of state.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#11

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ChrisinHove wrote:You only have to read some of the literature coming out of the Eastern Bloc in the Soviet era to understand what "totalitarian" really means. The individual has no chance against that sort of state.
Every major Royalist dynasty that was unwilling to step down or share power has been overthrown, why then should it be impossible to overthrow a military dictatorship? after all a Royal family is just a dictatorship with a crown...


As usual North Korea is playing the role of the rabid dog, and nobody wants to find out if it's really rabid by getting bitten... every new missile or nuclear advance that they put on display ups the threat and I doubt that there is any way to remove Jong Un from power without monumental consequences. China is certainly to blame for propping up the Kim regime for three generations, but even they probably can't control NK or neutralize the nuclear threat without a major campaign of assassination and the insertion of a new hand picked Government.

I just hope that our missile defense systems work as well as they're claimed to...
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#12

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JD Spydo wrote:There are two elements in all of this North Korea debacle that I find kind of weird needless to say. First of all it seems like they are trying to intimidate Japan even more than their main foe South Korea>> I've found that to be very strange. It would seem that there is something strange going on between them and Japan that I've yet to figure :confused:
I believe it has to do with the Japanese occupation of Korea for nearly 50 years...1910 to 1945 but their presence was felt as early as the 1890's. My understanding is there's still lingering bitterness felt by both N and S Koreans toward Japan. A generation of Koreans (especially NKs) grew up under Japanese rule and were treated as second class humans. Young Korean men received a Japanese education (brainwashed) and were conscripted into the Japanese army during WWII (years before America's involvement) and did the real dirty work in invading China. Many Korean women were forced to service the Japanese regulars.

My grandfather served in the US diplomatic corp and had a short stint in Nanjing. He told me stories of Japanese troops marching into the city, under the Japanese flag, wearing Japanese uniforms, and even speaking Japanese...but the soldiers were ethnic Koreans.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

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Mako109 wrote:
JD Spydo wrote:There are two elements in all of this North Korea debacle that I find kind of weird needless to say. First of all it seems like they are trying to intimidate Japan even more than their main foe South Korea>> I've found that to be very strange. It would seem that there is something strange going on between them and Japan that I've yet to figure :confused:
I believe it has to do with the Japanese occupation of Korea for nearly 50 years...1910 to 1945 but their presence was felt as early as the 1890's. My understanding is there's still lingering bitterness felt by both N and S Koreans toward Japan. A generation of Koreans (especially NKs) grew up under Japanese rule and were treated as second class humans. Young Korean men received a Japanese education (brainwashed) and were conscripted into the Japanese army during WWII (years before America's involvement) and did the real dirty work in invading China. Many Korean women were forced to service the Japanese regulars.

My grandfather served in the US diplomatic corp and had a short stint in Nanjing. He told me stories of Japanese troops marching into the city, under the Japanese flag, wearing Japanese uniforms, and even speaking Japanese...but the soldiers were ethnic Koreans.
That's really an interesting bit of history "Mako" and it seems like I heard that a long time ago. That's really cool that your grandfather was a US Diplomat as well. A lot of times people like that know a whole lot more than what the controlled news media tells us. Also I think the Japanese did something really horrendous to China during that time period I believe it was called the "Rape of Nan King">> I believe that's what I heard on a radio talk show about ten years ago.

I had two uncles that fought in the Korean War of the 1950s and what's strange is I still have no idea what the Korean and Viet Nam wars were about :confused: But all of that aside this current North Korean dictator is really off the hook in many ways and I truly do pray for our leadership to do the right thing but hopefully to avoid war if we can. I wouldn't want to be President Trump at this time. Because this is truly a very volatile situation and I don't think there are any easy answers to the problem unfortunately. GOD help us.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#14

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I'm sorry, I didn't describe my Grandfathers involvement very well...he wasn't a US Diplomat, but a businessman (in the tire and rubber industry) who had a stint with the US diplomatic corp. Remarkably, because of his connections in Asia, he also had some interesting involvement with US Army advisors in China, and some involvement with missionary work conducted by the BlackRock Family of Chicago (founders of BlackRock Global Investment Corp) in Shanghai. Man-o-man he had so many stories. Anyway, I digress. Apologies to the OP for the thread drift.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#15

Post by The Mastiff »

Mako is correct. The Chinese feel largely the same. The PRC government has been ramping up tensions with the Japanese and even claim some territory owned by Japan. Japan has scrambled fighters thousands of times over the last few years due to PRC incursions in the airspace. In addition the PRC use "little green boats" like Russia does "little green men in Ukraine and at times in the Baltics. PRC "fishing" boats go into Japanese waters and are known to harass Japanese coast guard and naval vessels even trying to ram them with their fishing boats like they did American vessels during the last administration. Recall the PRC actually stealing an underwater naval robot the Americans were using. They boldly went up to the American ship and just took it. :)

When North Korea messes with Japan they do it to tie into the other countries ( like PRC and South Korea) goals and emotions and get people lining up on sides. One thing North Korea fears is PRC. Rightly so too. They only hold power as long as PRC allows them too. Likewise the missile and warhead designs are Chinese and most of their newish military gear is Chinese. The Russians stopped giving them free stuff long ago.

PRC deployed troops near the border of North Korea not long after the beginning of this current situation. The stated goals of the PRC is to stop waves of Korean immigrants if war starts but it also sends a message to the US and possibly to Korea too. Both Koreas in fact.

AS far as change goes it is thought that China makes attempts to identify members of the NORKS military to keep in their pocket in case a regime change is needed. Naturally what the truth of this like most other matters is " those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know". That includes me. I'm just another guy speculating away here at my keyboard.

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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#16

Post by bearfacedkiller »

I typed a response but decided not post anything too political on here so instead....

That is funny!!!!!

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sal wrote:Knife afi's are pretty far out, steel junky's more so, but "edge junky's" are just nuts. :p
SpyderEdgeForever wrote: Also, do you think a kangaroo would eat a bowl of spagetti with sauce if someone offered it to them?
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#17

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On a lighter, funnier side I've got a good friend who actually worked in the NBA (National Basketball Association) who told me that he heard from inside sources that Kim Jung Un was a huge Chicago Bulls fan when he was growing up >> which in turn is why he visited with Dennis Rodman :rolleyes: he actually wanted to visit with Michael Jordan but he wanted nothing to do with the "Dog & Pony" show which was really nothing more than a weird public relations ploy at best.

My friend also told me that they at one time offered Dennis Rodman the job of coaching the North Korean Basketball team but he turned it down. OK I know that this is mainly rumor and conjecture but my friend has told me what turned out to be the truth on many occasions. But we are basically dealing with a power-drunk kid that doesn't have sense enough to pour urine out of a boot with an instruction manual on the heel :rolleyes: It is truly very scary that North Korea has this type of leadership ( if that's what you want to call it :rolleyes: ).

I hope this is all nothing more than "sabre rattling" and trash talk. Because for North Korea to threaten the USA would truly be like me slapping Evander Holyfield in the face and expecting to get the better of him :rolleyes: But unfortunately his fantasy level is just right about there. Again GOD help us.
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#18

Post by Doc Dan »

My take on this is that we should not discount the long and close Chinese connection. China was behind the North Korean descent into communism and they funded the Korean War and even sent troops. They still have strong ties to North Korea. China cannot threaten the USA and Japan directly (they are in a big dispute with Japan over an Island, and with many Southeast Asian countries, building military bases in their territorial waters, and claiming land within their borders). Since they cannot afford to directly threaten the USA and Japan, it is just conceivable that China is using Kim's mental issues to pursue their goals from the rear, as they have in the past. That way, they look to have clean hands.

Now, this is worrying, because if their perverted child Kim actually goes too far and gets into a shooting match with the USA, China may be forced to join the fun and back up its "ally".
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#19

Post by ChrisinHove »

awa54 wrote:
ChrisinHove wrote:You only have to read some of the literature coming out of the Eastern Bloc in the Soviet era to understand what "totalitarian" really means. The individual has no chance against that sort of state.
Every major Royalist dynasty that was unwilling to step down or share power has been overthrown, why then should it be impossible to overthrow a military dictatorship? after all a Royal family is just a dictatorship with a crown...
Quite often by an organisation and subsequent regime that has to be at least as repressive and brutal to achieve it - usually communist. More recently, the overthrow of Dictators in the Arab world has hardly been a success for their populations
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Re: North Korean Military Threat: How realistic?

#20

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The US is dealing with a petulant man-child who starves and terrorizes his countrymen (who are already indoctrinated / brain-washed into believing he and his family are of "divine selection"), kills off those in his inner circle who displease him by using anti-aircraft guns, mortars and attack dogs....he killed his own step-brother earlier this year with VX nerve agent administered by two women acting as airport hostesses. He is dangerously unstable by any diagnosis AND NOW he has not only atomic bombs in his toy box but at least a few thermonuclear bombs to terrorize and blackmail the world with. And at least a version of his delivery vehicle that can hit Japan at the very least, probably Guam, not to mention just sneaking one onboard a cargo ship and sailing into any harbor he wants to obliterate.

He is use to ranting and raving then rattling his little sword and the west...primarily the US...throwing some money, grain, trade concessions his way just to make him shut-up as he was no real threat, just annoying to our allies. Those days are now gone. NK is now a full-on nuclear power with a power mad. insecure lunatic at the wheel thanks to the rest of the world letting it happen...especially the US. This boil should have been lanced long ago.

As Doc Dan pointed out above, this could very well be a Chinese proxy war taken to a new level...after all China wants concessions on the South China Sea disputes with Japan, Vietnam, and several other countries....trade concessions with the US, stopping the unfair trade practices investigation currently underway here and a hundred other percs from dozens of other countries....how better to get them than "helping out" with the NK problem.

Just some points to ponder. The deeper you look the more there is to think about.
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