Mule Team flipping

A place to share your experience with our Mule Team knives.
Bodog
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#381

Post by Bodog »

Ankerson wrote:The Serial Number thing is pretty simple really.

The Serial Numbers are recorded and Sent off in blocks to the various Distributors and Knife Shops, dates shipped etc.

So when a number of them end up on EBAY or whatever before anyone else has them like still on pre order etc the Manufacturer gets one of them and looks up the Serial Number.

Then once it's looked up and they find out were that block went to they pick up the phone and call that Distributor or Knife Shop and simply ask them how the **** X number of knives in Y Block of numbers that THEY HAD ended up on EBAY or whatever Z amount of time before anyone else got them.

Specifically if the Knife Shop has a Limit of 1 or 2 per customer, how did 20 of them in their Block of Serial Numbers end up on EBAY from the same seller before any of the Customers got them?

Or to the Distributor how did that block of Serial Numbers ended up on EBAY etc before the Knife Shops got them?

Or the Shops don't have any, but there are 50 of them on EBAY or whatever..

It would be VERY easy, trivial to track down, wouldn't take more than maybe 5 or 10 mins of actual time to find out what happened once they had the Serial Numbers.

That's if the Manufacturer actually really wanted to do something about it in the 1st place.

That's something they couldn't hide from or even begin to try and deny as it would all be in black and white. ;)
In the end, isn't that what creates marketing frenzy for a company, though? Exclusivity. Gotta have it, gotta have it, gotta have it, creating ridiculous secondary markets leading to rushes on the following runs. Most people who aren't true fans of the design or materials just want the ability to make a little extra money. If there's a market frenzy then the speculators know they can and will step up to the plate and order as many as they can. The frenzy gets even more frenetic if there are special rules to purchasing one or manufacturer/ dealer imposed limits on the number ordered coupled with an unknown quantity being released.


The only thing I wonder about is that Sal is blatantly clear about these mule team blades not being along the same lines as the sprint runs. He said that nothing will change that will cause unnecessary costs to the program, and for that I'm grateful. I know that I'm willing to pay a little extra to ensure a shot at the obviously high demand blades, but if that jeopardizes the program, I'll bow out and accept the fact that some scumbags take advantage of an imperfect system. It would be really nice if something, anything, was in place that protected those true steel fans and allowed them an opportunity to buy a blade without worrying about the scalpers,but that's not to be.
They who dance are thought mad by those who do not hear the music.
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elmeringalo
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#382

Post by elmeringalo »

I don't know if it's a real problem.
I have known the project recently and am excited about, to the point that I am trying to buy Mule previous models that are only found in the used market. What is the problem?
I think only some of the Mule buyers will be real experts in metals able to provide valuable references for Spyderco
Many, the most, we will comply with creating more or less modest knives and will bring our bit in this project. At the end of the day this seems to be the goal of the Mule project.
It's impossible to avoid the existence of speculators, in this and in all human activities. We would solve the world.
I am personally willing to join a club to send me a copy directly from Spyderco Mule every time you put on sale, but do not think this prevents someone sell his copy if he want.
Well, sorry for my english and go on with Mule project, please.
Where can I found Mules 01 to 06? Jajahaha
No por mucho tempranar, amanece mas madrugo
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hunterseeker5
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#383

Post by hunterseeker5 »

jtoler_9 wrote:I still fail to see how flipping mules hurts the intent of the program any more than folks buying two and shelving one for a rainy day. Similarly those that buy a mule just to display it on a shelve.
1) Because the flippers often have more than two for sale.

2) Because there appear to be a lot more people who'd flip mules than would gaze at their rough skeletonized handles on a shelf all day long

3) Nobody said that people collecting T&E blades was wonderful either, but it certainly less predatory than scalping them.
QUICKSILVER
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#384

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Cliff Stamp wrote:
QUICKSILVER wrote:Is your example a version of the prisoners dilemma from game theory?
Not exactly, it is similar but works on a different principle. The ideal solution to that problem is however very interesting. Your approach to dealing with the problem of flipping is however much simpler/more efficient than the one I proposed and far easier to implement. I do think though that the simplest thing is to increase the runs and simply remove the rarity. As HS5 noted, if the runs would in fact not be special edition and for example each year a run could be made which was the most in demand, it alone would severely reduce secondary market flipping.
Cliff,

Yes, decreasing or eliminating rarity would work. But there are some practical problems.

My mind is very process oriented and looks at how things play out. I don't know how to make runs not special edition. Almost by definition, each steel is a special edition. The only way I can see to do that is to reissue older mules. Maybe the threat of reissue on a sellout will reduce the secondary prices. If a specific steel sells out the first few hours, Sal could announce the possibility of a second run. That has problems too. Can he get the steel in sufficient quantities in a reasonable time? Would people really wait or would they buy on the secondary market anyway? Would a lot of the second issue sit on the shelves losing money for Spyderco?

Reissuing older mules would probably have little effect on flipping the most recent issue and it would harm people who had reasonable need to sell the knife. This would include people who need money to buy a knife they really want and children who inherited dad's knife collection.

Sal could increase the number of mules on first issue. I am sure he estimates demand during planning and bases steel purchase and production costs on the estimate. The most cost effective number to produce will "exactly" meet demand in a few weeks. It almost impossible to "exactly" estimate demand. "Prediction is very difficult especially if it is about the future." (Niels Bohr) Also, because steels get hyped on the internet, the estimated demand just before issue may be very different than the estimated demand at planning time. Sometimes too many will be produced and sometimes too few. It would be costly to plan on producing enough mules to sit on the shelf for enough years to make them not rare for a meaningful time after first issue. I just can't see how to make them not rare at the time of issue without a large cost to Spyderco.

I would sure like to get other people's opinions on changing the buying process. Would people be in favor of early buying (even before announcing the steel) nonrefundable deposits and a mule buyers club.

Enjoy,

Bill Maier
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JNewell
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#385

Post by JNewell »

sal wrote:I appreciate all of the thought that went into this.

At this time, we're not going to change anything. Adding labor (numbers, pre-orders, pre-payment, etc.) all add labor which adds to the cost. Remember the goal was to get the odd steels to interested persons at the lowest possible cost to the ELU.

We do have one getting ready to release and we have a few in process.

sal
This was Sal's post from Saturday. He seems to have given all of this a good bit of thought and come to a conclusion for the time being.
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chuck_roxas45
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#386

Post by chuck_roxas45 »

JNewell wrote:
sal wrote:I appreciate all of the thought that went into this.

At this time, we're not going to change anything. Adding labor (numbers, pre-orders, pre-payment, etc.) all add labor which adds to the cost. Remember the goal was to get the odd steels to interested persons at the lowest possible cost to the ELU.

We do have one getting ready to release and we have a few in process.

sal
This was Sal's post from Saturday. He seems to have given all of this a good bit of thought and come to a conclusion for the time being.
True, but isn't this thread all about exploring options?
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Ankerson
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#387

Post by Ankerson »

Bodog wrote:
Ankerson wrote:The Serial Number thing is pretty simple really.

The Serial Numbers are recorded and Sent off in blocks to the various Distributors and Knife Shops, dates shipped etc.

So when a number of them end up on EBAY or whatever before anyone else has them like still on pre order etc the Manufacturer gets one of them and looks up the Serial Number.

Then once it's looked up and they find out were that block went to they pick up the phone and call that Distributor or Knife Shop and simply ask them how the **** X number of knives in Y Block of numbers that THEY HAD ended up on EBAY or whatever Z amount of time before anyone else got them.

Specifically if the Knife Shop has a Limit of 1 or 2 per customer, how did 20 of them in their Block of Serial Numbers end up on EBAY from the same seller before any of the Customers got them?

Or to the Distributor how did that block of Serial Numbers ended up on EBAY etc before the Knife Shops got them?

Or the Shops don't have any, but there are 50 of them on EBAY or whatever..

It would be VERY easy, trivial to track down, wouldn't take more than maybe 5 or 10 mins of actual time to find out what happened once they had the Serial Numbers.

That's if the Manufacturer actually really wanted to do something about it in the 1st place.

That's something they couldn't hide from or even begin to try and deny as it would all be in black and white. ;)
In the end, isn't that what creates marketing frenzy for a company, though? Exclusivity. Gotta have it, gotta have it, gotta have it, creating ridiculous secondary markets leading to rushes on the following runs. Most people who aren't true fans of the design or materials just want the ability to make a little extra money. If there's a market frenzy then the speculators know they can and will step up to the plate and order as many as they can. The frenzy gets even more frenetic if there are special rules to purchasing one or manufacturer/ dealer imposed limits on the number ordered coupled with an unknown quantity being released.


The only thing I wonder about is that Sal is blatantly clear about these mule team blades not being along the same lines as the sprint runs. He said that nothing will change that will cause unnecessary costs to the program, and for that I'm grateful. I know that I'm willing to pay a little extra to ensure a shot at the obviously high demand blades, but if that jeopardizes the program, I'll bow out and accept the fact that some scumbags take advantage of an imperfect system. It would be really nice if something, anything, was in place that protected those true steel fans and allowed them an opportunity to buy a blade without worrying about the scalpers,but that's not to be.
Kinda like most things people gotta have, I-Phones, I-Pads, that new model car or truck etc, there will always be people that will take advantage of the situation.

That's not to say that some stupidity isn't at play on the buyers part, I have my own opinions on the logic of having to have something 1st and paying a premium for it when the same item could be had some time later at a much lower price.

I remember years ago when I worked for a short time in the Auto Industry when a certain new model came out, well the Dealerships only got so many in at 1st.

Well I sold one and discounted it like I normally would and I thought the Sales Manager was going to have a heart attack, they were going to rip this other dude off and charge them $20,000 over sticker.

I was like Oh Well, tough crap.... I already sold it, SOL Jerk Off. ;)

I really didn't like them all that much anyway or their business practices in general ripping the Sales guys off and the customers. :D

Handing off all the good sales to their buddies or the latest pump and starving the rest, lots of underhanded BS going on.

It all caught up with them in the end and they lost the Dealership so karma at work. :)
Last edited by Ankerson on Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:10 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Cliff Stamp
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#388

Post by Cliff Stamp »

QUICKSILVER wrote:The only way I can see to do that is to reissue older mules. Maybe the threat of reissue on a sellout will reduce the secondary prices. If a specific steel sells out the first few hours, Sal could announce the possibility of a second run. That has problems too. Can he get the steel in sufficient quantities in a reasonable time? Would people really wait or would they buy on the secondary market anyway? Would a lot of the second issue sit on the shelves losing money for Spyderco?
There is no reason to make this a hypothetical. Spyderco could simply issue one extra Mule run each year. If you wanted it then just email with MULE RUN in the title and then name the steel you wanted to see. This could all be filtered and processed without even a person being involved and collect a tally. Once a year someone would look at the numbers, announce a new run and then email all the people who wanted one noting when they would be for sale. The email again could be automate/generated via a script. There is also another way, Spyderco could simply come to a deal with a maker who would take all individual orders and make any Mule run on request. And yes there are lots of makers who do quality work, use Peter's etc. and can meet the Mule prices, especially if they made them in batches of 5-10. In fact Spyderco could use this to bring many up and coming US makers into the industry and developing future collaborations. There are lots of ways to explore, you just have to step outside the mode of thinking on how to stop the behavior you don't want to see (as that is next to impossible) and try to create what you want to see.
Bodog
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#389

Post by Bodog »

"There is also another way, Spyderco could simply come to a deal with a maker who would take all individual orders and make any Mule run on request. And yes there are lots of makers who do quality work, use Peter's etc. and can meet the Mule prices, especially if they made them in batches of 5-10. In fact Spyderco could use this to bring many up and coming US makers into the industry and developing future collaborations."

Outstanding idea but I don't think that would happen any faster than having certified and authorized pimpers working under a license.
They who dance are thought mad by those who do not hear the music.
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#390

Post by Bodog »

They who dance are thought mad by those who do not hear the music.
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tvenuto
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#391

Post by tvenuto »

Cliff Stamp wrote:
There is no reason to make this a hypothetical. Spyderco could simply issue one extra Mule run each year. If you wanted it then just email with MULE RUN in the title and then name the steel you wanted to see. This could all be filtered and processed without even a person being involved and collect a tally. Once a year someone would look at the numbers, announce a new run and then email all the people who wanted one noting when they would be for sale. The email again could be automate/generated via a script. There is also another way, Spyderco could simply come to a deal with a maker who would take all individual orders and make any Mule run on request. And yes there are lots of makers who do quality work, use Peter's etc. and can meet the Mule prices, especially if they made them in batches of 5-10. In fact Spyderco could use this to bring many up and coming US makers into the industry and developing future collaborations. There are lots of ways to explore, you just have to step outside the mode of thinking on how to stop the behavior you don't want to see (as that is next to impossible) and try to create what you want to see.
Very interesting idea. I'm sure this has been mentioned before in this very long thread (which I haven't read all of, admittedly), but what about a staggered release? Same numbers, just multiple times that open up to buy them. This way a flipper would need to be at the front of several lines, and anyone who missed the previous buy gets a second chance. Also, you could just pick one time to be at the computer, instead of the potential that you're out and about on the single time that they get released at the moment.

Or, how about we take this out of spyderco's hands? Start an "Upcoming Mule" thread, where people volunteer to buy one extra for anyone who is going to miss out. People sign up to receive one from the "volunteered stock" available in the thread, which would be a gradual process instead of the firedrill of a single buy. I know I generally only buy one to actually use, and don't ever fully utilize the "2 maximum" I'm allotted. I know that somewhat violates the buy/sell policy here, but since all of this is happening at MSRP I don't see the issue (I'm sure people have bought things for other members via PM before now, like the seconds sale).
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#392

Post by GoldenSpydie »

Sal said that he wasn't changing anything...in my opinion, arguing about this and continuing this thread is flagrantly second-guessing Sal, who is the man who created the Mules as a favor to us in the first place. Somewhat ironic and kinda rude to do in Sal's house, IMHO...

Edit:
As I said, it's just my interpretation and opinion, and I don't begrudge others for wanting to discuss things. Maybe I read some posts the wrong way, but it seemed to me that some people were basically stating "Sal said this but I think they should enforce {insert random idea} anyway," which I perceived to be rude, thus this post. Definitely not meant to offend anyone--just my observation+interpretation. :)
Last edited by GoldenSpydie on Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tvenuto
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#393

Post by tvenuto »

That's a strange interpretation. He said "for the time being," and did not shut down the thread or ask people to stop suggesting things. I think we all have accepted that there will be no changes for now, and the people suggesting ideas aren't really arguing. The only arguing I've noticed is a few calling even the attempt at solving this "stupid."

That's just me, though, and I'll happily keep my peace if the consensus is otherwise.
moe1a
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#394

Post by moe1a »

Sal could solve this easily, just send us all one of each version mule and we won't have to fill out our collections with flippers.
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chuck_roxas45
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#395

Post by chuck_roxas45 »

GoldenSpydie wrote:Sal said that he wasn't changing anything...in my opinion, arguing about this and continuing this thread is flagrantly second-guessing Sal, who is the man who created the Mules as a favor to us in the first place. Somewhat ironic and kinda rude to do in Sal's house, IMHO...

Edit:
As I said, it's just my interpretation and opinion, and I don't begrudge others for wanting to discuss things. Maybe I read some posts the wrong way, but it seemed to me that some people were basically stating "Sal said this but I think they should enforce {insert random idea} anyway," which I perceived to be rude, thus this post. Definitely not meant to offend anyone--just my observation+interpretation. :)
What harm does a discussion do? I doubt Mr. G is as thin skinned as you make him out to be.
QUICKSILVER
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#396

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Cliff Stamp wrote:
QUICKSILVER wrote:The only way I can see to do that is to reissue older mules. Maybe the threat of reissue on a sellout will reduce the secondary prices. If a specific steel sells out the first few hours, Sal could announce the possibility of a second run. That has problems too. Can he get the steel in sufficient quantities in a reasonable time? Would people really wait or would they buy on the secondary market anyway? Would a lot of the second issue sit on the shelves losing money for Spyderco?
There is no reason to make this a hypothetical. Spyderco could simply issue one extra Mule run each year. If you wanted it then just email with MULE RUN in the title and then name the steel you wanted to see. This could all be filtered and processed without even a person being involved and collect a tally. Once a year someone would look at the numbers, announce a new run and then email all the people who wanted one noting when they would be for sale. The email again could be automate/generated via a script. There is also another way, Spyderco could simply come to a deal with a maker who would take all individual orders and make any Mule run on request. And yes there are lots of makers who do quality work, use Peter's etc. and can meet the Mule prices, especially if they made them in batches of 5-10. In fact Spyderco could use this to bring many up and coming US makers into the industry and developing future collaborations. There are lots of ways to explore, you just have to step outside the mode of thinking on how to stop the behavior you don't want to see (as that is next to impossible) and try to create what you want to see.
Nice Cliff!
Two new ideas. Thinking outside the box. That kind of thinking makes this thread worth keeping open. It would be great to see more innovative ideas.
Bill Maier
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chuck_roxas45
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#397

Post by chuck_roxas45 »

How many mules team sold out fast? Maybe only those could have the possibility of being reissued. The possibility of additional runs might also deter hoarders possibly making more units available to those who will use and test. The "threat" of additional runs might also deter the people who are merely looking for exclusivity and not for an idea of the performance.
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sal
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#398

Post by sal »

I appreciate all of the thoughts shared and I do not take offense at any of them. Generally when I read the suggestions, my mind will see problems that would be difficult, not possible, or add cost to the project, or time that could be used for regular production.

One consideration for you is that many of these steels are made for our specific run. Lead time may take months, to in some cases years, to get the steel, rolled into sheet at the thickness required. In some cases like RWL, the foundry had never made sheet before and so it is an experiment for them as well. Something like Maxamet is a special heat, ordered many months in advance. Most of the steels we use are not just sitting in inventory where a maker can get a little bit. There are also minimum quantities to deal with.

sal
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elmeringalo
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#399

Post by elmeringalo »

Thanks and congratulations for making this project possible, Sal
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Re: Mule Team flipping

#400

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Probably can't do anything about flippers. Just looked for mules on the big auction site and there were two MT19s for sale. One nib for $105.97 with 16 watchers and one heavily modified for $179.99. Evidently one sold for $105.97 a little over a week ago. They are still available at $79.95 at Spyderco. Why pay $26 extra and why are 16 people watching?

As Spock would say - It's not logical. So trying to figure out how to logically figure out how to stop flipping - is not logical.

Buying two of each upcoming mule at issue price is my selfish desire. I will try to keep up with the forum announcement and be at the computer the hour of first issue. Sometimes that doesn't work. Such is life. I will pay a premium in the aftermarket if necessary.

I trust Sal to pick some interesting steels so I would be willing to buy the next mule before the steel is announced. Continually selling the next mule until the steel is announced might meet my selfish needs. Don't know what kind of problems that would cause. Mule buyers club might also work.

Sal, thanks for letting us kick this around. I learned a few things.

Bill Maier
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