Should Sprint Run sizes be increased?

[Jay_Ev]

Reading through some threads here and a fellow forum member posted something that mirrors exactly how I feel:

If sprints are done with numbers of only 3-400 at a time that frustrates me rather more than it excites me. I'm already tired of scrambling around trying to find knives, with pre order lists filled up a year before the release.

I have gained knowledge about Sprint Runs from many experienced forum members. They have taught me that there is a delicate balance Spyderco must achieve regarding Sprint Runs. Make too many and risk sitting on a surplus of unsold inventory. Make too few and everyone who wants one may not be able to get one.

Have we reached a time now where 3-400 is possibly too small? From reading other threads it appears that the blue Manix2 is already sold out. The carbon fiber Manix2 sold out VERY quickly also. My opinion is that this will also happen with the upcoming carpenter steel Manix2. It appears that if you are not on a pre-order list 6 months to a year in advance you risk missing out, now forced to pay 2-3x the price on ebay.

More and more people are discovering Spyderco knives all the time. Maybe we have reached a point where 600 could be the magic number for Sprint Runs. Thoughts?

[quattrokid73]

Some would say increasing the size of the sprint run decreases the prestige and value.

I'd agree in some respects. But the point of Spyderco is to create great working knives. All of the sprints are great working knives, therefore I'd agree that a 25% increase in production of models that will likely still sell out would be a smart move.

[THE PUNISHER]

more more more.......... :spyder:

[CanisMajor]

I feel the size should be increased. I feel 300-400 made isn't enough. I pre-ordered a Blue Manix II a few weeks before it came out, and I haven't heard anything. I've given up hope on it, but I got a Bushcraft UK to hold me over :) . 600 made is a lot, but it isn't. Especially how you(Jay) were talking about having to pre-order the knife at least 6 months in advance just to guarantee being able to get one. People are always going to want one, there are many who missed out on the Blue Manix and are forced to pay around $190 to get one, and I've seen threads already asking where you can pre-order the next Manix II. I either say have a quantity increase or make more Sprint runs. Just my $0.02.

Canis

[Sequimite]

I don't think you can improve on a smart businessman's judgment of how many he can sell of a particular product.

I've only been hanging out here a year and a quarter, but of the sprint runs I've observed, I don't recall any selling out in a few days. edit - the S90V Manix2 might have.

[spoonrobot]

Which runs were 300-400?

AFAIK the most recent super-popular runs were:

USN Endura 4: 600 pieces in two runs of 300 a few weeks apart sold through the Spyderco website.
Forum Native: 600 pieces at once sold through the Spyderco website.
Blue Manix 2: 500 pieces sold through dealers.

It appears that if you are not on a pre-order list 6 months to a year in advance you risk missing out, now forced to pay 2-3x the price on ebay.

That's not even close to reality, if we don't look at the facts it makes no sense for us to speculate on complex topics. Pre-ordering is actually a new phenomenon in this Spydie community and I recall no instances of either 1 year of 6 month pre-orders for anything other than the M4 Military which is exclusive to one dealer. Most pre-order lists are a few months at the most. Dealers don't want the risk associated with any longer waits for a production piece. Second, it is very rare that a sprint will sell for 2-3X the street price. The forum Native did it a few times but other than that most barely reach the 1.5X mark. I've yet to see a Blue Manix sell for $260-$390. That Sprint has just barely reached the 1.5X mark but appears to be coming down slightly. And finally, no one is forced to buy any knife. When buying on eBay you set your own price, if it's too high, don't buy it.

I'm reminded of last year's J.D. Smith Sprint. It had mediocre popularity and is still found in stock at quite a few dealers. I believe it had a run of 1200 pieces, and was essentially a failure as far as drawing in collectors and becoming a popular model. It's a good example of how Sprint runs are not a guaranteed success and don't always sell like they're expected.

Now, without knowing the costs or business aspects of the Sprint concept none of us can positively say if the run size should be increased. But I think that if the runs get too large they lose their attraction to both collectors and dealers. Collectors don't want a knife that is common and easily found and dealers don't want to stock another SKU that isn't going to move.

Sprints appear to be a very fine line which takes a lot of knowledge of the industry and the community. To call for increasing them without taking into consideration a lot of factors is not something I would feel comfortable doing. I've placed my trust in the company as far as making a good, safe product and I'll continue to trust in their business sense as well.

[Jay_Ev]

Which runs were 300-400?

Jeez... sorry I asked. It was just a question.

If I recall correctly, the carbon fiber S90V Manix 2 was either 300 or 400. Take out the 200 that go to collectors and that leaves a whopping 100 or 200 for the rest of the world to fight over. And yes, this knife (which you selectively left out to strengthen the point of your message) was seen on ebay for prices in the $360+ range.

I apologize for asking and I will refrain from asking dumb questions in the future.

[Donut]

I think smaller runs are good from a business point of view. You don't have to spend so much money to produce them, and you don't have to worry so much about not selling them all out.

How much are you willing to bet on how many of each model is going to sell? Probably not nearly as much as Spyderco has to spend on each sprint run.

Who does it benefit to have these knives sitting on a shelf for months waiting for people to buy them?

[spoonrobot]

Jeez... sorry I asked. It was just a question.

You'll never get what you want when you collapse and get all defensive as soon as someone questions you. This is an excellent topic that needs discussion, I put in my input just like I hope everyone else will. No need to take it as attack merely because I asked questions and made recommendations.

I left out the CFS90VM2 because I couldn't find a source for the run length. It was 400 pieces, so far that is the shortest popular knife run I can reference.

Please correct me again if I'm wrong but I'm showing a street price for the S90V Manix 2 of @$225. If they sold on eBay for $360 that would not be within the 2-3X you cited. But these arguments are misdirecting the point I was actually trying to make which was that the price paid and availability (or lack thereof) are often exaggerated when one is frustrated. Better to leave the emotion out of it and report as objectively as possible to make the best choice in the future.

Is the collector's club fully enrolled right now? If it doesn't have the full 200 members does the difference roll over into stock for dealers/regular buyers?

Furthermore, I think my point is a good one. I'm not advocating anything other than not taking a direct action that may not be in the best interests of the company or the enthusiast. We can speculate and opine but to throw weight behind any one course of action doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

Thoughts?

I have a lot of them.

[The Mastiff]

There's nothing dumb about the question. If it's the way you feel, then it's the way you feel. I feel there have been sprints that have been put out that I've had a difficult time getting. One, I didn't get at all.

Certainly Spyderco has the right to do business any way they want. I can buy where ever I want, and there is no expectation that Spyderco will always fufill all my needs as a knife user and a collector.

Don't expect me to have any sympathy for the whole idea that if Spyderco makes more of any given sprint that it will cause the secondary market or collector value to go down, thus hurting the ones that were lucky enough to get the knives. Sorry, I couldn't care less what kind of money you make reselling your knives at a profit. I want a knife to use, not to make money off of. If you're in it to make money, that's not my business or concern.

By the way, The BG42 Millie sprint was 1200 pieces, sat around a long time, but still sells at quite a good price on the secondary market. The argument about the J.D.Smith is a strawman. It's your interest in the profit potential that seems to be driving your desire to see low number sprints Spoonrobot.

[mikerestivo]

Feel free to post such queries. I think this is what makes a forum go, even if you get an occasional response that might seem crabby to you.

I was pondering this question myself. I'm not thinking about it from a business perspective, just my own as a dude with a knife obsession. I was thinking how ridiculous it was that folks are scrambling to try and preorder the new Manix coming out and they are being told by dealers that there are more preorders than knives.

As a knife-lover, I hate it. There should be enough produced so that they are not sold out before they even hit the shelves. It causes some bad feelings with the customers, and the dealers who are trying to figure out how to make the customers happy.

[spoonrobot]

By the way, The BG42 Millie sprint was 1200 pieces, sat around a long time, but still sells at quite a good price on the secondary market. The argument about the J.D.Smith is a strawman. It's your interest in the profit potential that seems to be driving your desire to see low number sprints Spoonrobot.

If my example of the JD Smith is a strawman, wouldn't that make your example of the BG42 Military a strawman as well? What you just did was help illustrate my point that Sprints are not a guaranteed sell-out and often have unpredictable sales, despite what some here continue to think.

My interest in profit potential? I'm not a dealer, nor a collector and I rarely sell my knives. I've never listed a knife for a price that was any sort of profit and don't plan to begin anytime soon. Go ahead and look up my forum history f you're so inclined. I can PM you most of my sales threads if you feel the need to question me. You have jumped to a very large and very misguided conclusion that is completely wrong about why I'm here and why my input is the way it is. Emotionally driven accusation hurling gets us nowhere and is not a good way to conduct discourse.

Once again I will state this since a few of you seem to have trouble reading and understanding what I wrote. I have no desire to see low number Sprints. I do not think the Sprint runs should be increased, decreased of even stay the same. I'm not advocating anything other than not taking a direct action that may not be in the best interests of the company or the enthusiast. We can speculate and opine but to throw weight behind any one course of action doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

[ABX2011]

It's sort of a catch-22 because some people are more likely to buy a knife that is a limited production (not necessarily to flip for a profit) so if you make the run bigger, you lose some buyers.
What I'm saying is that creating a shortage or the sense of a shortage can be a marketing strategy. It can make the brand more desirable.

[The Mastiff]

Spoonrobot, I apologize for my statement. I was mis reading this statement:

Now, without knowing the costs or business aspects of the Sprint concept none of us can positively say if the run size should be increased. But I think that if the runs get too large they lose their attraction to both collectors and dealers. Collectors don't want a knife that is common and easily found and dealers don't want to stock another SKU that isn't going to move.

No explaining needed as to your meaning now that I re read it.

Yes, The BG42 argument is a strawman also. It was meant to be.

Sorry again, But I get frustrated when it becomes difficult or inconvienent to find the knives that I want. That's really about it. I still have no regard for the feelings of collectors or resellers who desire more rarity at my expense.

Thanks, and once again I apologize for my statement.

[ozspyder]

This is a very interesting topic which was bound to stir a lot of emotions :)

Only Sal/ Spyderco can make the final and educated business decision on whether a larger or smaller run is warranted. History shows that some sprint runs sold in large numbers while others floundered. Was it due to marketing, demand or the general state of economy at the time of release ???

As a business owner, this decision to please customers vs making a viable business choice NOT to lose money just to make others happy is a delicate line to draw.

As a collector I wish I could have every single knife on offer with unlimited time to save up to buy them at any point in the future when I can afford them. In reality, when I have enough money there seems to be little in way of what knives I want. My buying history shows that when I have a credit balance in my Paypal account I will go for a Persian, Kopa, Lum or Millie :) Then sell something/s if I need or want to buy something different (like a Breeden Rescue LOL :p )

IMHO having a large sprint run defeats the purpose of having a sprint run. By definition it is a quick special run of a particular model released generally for the collector base. I understand that some people will speculate and buy to collect and sell at a later date for a small profit. IMHO that just doesn't work. Every time I buy something and sell it later I will lose money ROFL ! If something catches my eye and I think it will look good in a photo or i my hands/ pocket then I will get it.

[2cha]

Take out the 200 that go to collectors and that leaves a whopping 100 or 200 for the rest of the world to fight over.

My understanding is that there a fewer than 100 active collector numbers at the moment.

At for business reasons to keep sprints small:
1) Is it possible that larger runs would cut into existing sales/sales that would happen otherwise for existing normal production models?
2) Is it possible that sprint runs have an "advertising" value in that the small numbers generate excitement?
3) Is it possible that sprints are market tests that provide input to spyderco for future designs and production numbers?
4) Is there anything inherently wrong with having a small number of knives that predominantly go to those with superior knowledge?

As a latecomer to spyderco obsession, I've been paying way more than original buyers for certain knives, I don't really resent it because I feel that I have something special rather than something everybody has. In a mass market world, I sometimes want something that's more special than everything else out there. If that means I don't always get what I want when I want it, there's a lesson, and even a pleasure of sorts, in that too.

[spoonrobot]

Yes, The BG42 argument is a strawman also. It was meant to be.

Sorry again, But I get frustrated when it becomes difficult or inconvienent to find the knives that I want. That's really about it. I still have no regard for the feelings of collectors or resellers who desire more rarity at my expense.

Thanks, and once again I apologize for my statement.

Understood.

It appears that "slick-dealing" is becoming much more prevalent in our hobby community and is hurting the ones who want to use the knives the most. The only real way around this is to invest more time to stay abreast of developments but even then it may not always be possible to do so consistently enough to get what you're looking for.

No need to apologize, sometimes it difficult to discern what is meant by certain posts. One of the costs of text-based conversation.

This is a very interesting topic which was bound to stir a lot of emotions

On a lighter note, I don't think I've seen this much text on the first page of a thread in years.

[araneae]

1) Is it possible that larger runs would cut into existing sales/sales that would happen otherwise for existing normal production models?
2) Is it possible that sprint runs have an "advertising" value in that the small numbers generate excitement?
3) Is it possible that sprints are market tests that provide input to spyderco for future designs and production numbers?
4) Is there anything inherently wrong with having a small number of knives that predominantly go to those with superior knowledge?

1.Doubtful as the Sprints are usually sufficiently different so as to prevent cutting into existing model sales. Quantities are probably far lower than standard production knives. A small increase in Sprint sizes should have very little/no impact on regular sales.
2.No doubt.
3.Yes, but I would hazard a guess that the sprint market is just as likely catering toward collectors and speculators.
4.Superior knowledge must be coupled with necessary disposable funds to obtain a knife that has what may be a very limited period of availability.

[The Mastiff]

ABX2011 states:

What I'm saying is that creating a shortage or the sense of a shortage can be a marketing strategy. It can make the brand more desirable.

There are companies that use that business model. I can't say I do business with them at all. I won't ever start either.

spoonrobot:

The only real way around this is to invest more time to stay abreast of developments but even then it may not always be possible to do so consistently enough to get what you're looking for.

I've been doing this for a long time and can be pretty tenacious. I know where to look usually. Still, when it gets to a certain level of difficulty I tend to lose interest in wanting a product unless it really is the only game in town. That's an unusual case though.

[bh49]

IMHO having a large sprint run defeats the purpose of having a sprint run. By definition it is a quick special run of a particular model released generally for the collector base.

I agree with this. I think that 600 is a good number for sprint. 400 pieces sprints from Golden sold out fast. Still, I decided to get Blue Manix fairly late, about a week from release. Still it was not really hard to find, just contacted three dealers and got one a week later. 1200 pieces Sprints in my opinion kind of big, it takes a while, sometimes more than a year, depends on popularity, for dealers to sell them.