Check my math for mule demand.

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Toker
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#21

Post by Toker »

Any list would be a nightmare to manage. People's billing information can change, finances can change and interest depending on the steel can change. I'm not seeing what the issue is going forward if the production numbers are increased.
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sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#22

Post by sal »

KnifeKnuts wrote:
Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:05 pm
This list doesn't exist yet. This is just a suggestion to help eliminate the Mule Team challenges that now exist. I currently have 1 or 2 of every Mule Team blade, except for MT14P. I now have 53 Mule blades to use, experiment and collect. None of them are for sale. I've been buying these blades over the past 11-years and instead of getting easier to buy them, it's getting more difficult with each new release. I would like to keep collecting new Mule Team blades until the day that I die. I hate buying these blades from scalpers on the secondary market. This pre-order list proposal seems like a workable solution for Sal and everyone else involved in the Mule Team project. As the list would get longer, additional units could be ordered to meet the increasing demand. A list of buyers committed to purchasing all upcoming Mule releases should help Sal to work up demand quantity projections, well in advance. Imagine receiving all new Mule Team blades delivered to your door without lifting a finger. I simply hope to generate some interest in this suggestion.

Hi KnifeKnuts,

Thanx much for your interest and support of our Mule Team project over the years. While I do appreciate your suggestion, it is really not as simple as it may appear to you. If all you have to do is offer a credit card, then I agree, that it would be simple for you. But we would have to hire a couple of administrators to be able to handle the thousands of knives that would end up on order for a couple of years into the future. They would also have to handle all adjustments which will surely come up. "My credit card was hacked and so it was cancelled". "I moved so you will need to update my numbers". "I changed my mind". "Can I increase fro one to 2"? My budget has changed". etc.etc

That would significantly increase the cost in time and expenses of maintaining the Mule program. We're pretty busy right now and that isn't something that I feel would be a simple solution.

My current strategy is to increase the number produced until we know we're making enough so that everyone that wants one can get one, or two if that's the goal/plan. The 2nd part is to provide a regular Mule team that would always be in inventory. Plus if there are enough to go around, then there will be a few pcs hanging around for a month or so for late purchases.

What I would like to do is play this out and see if it will work. I don't think that the MagnaCut run is indicative of future sales. Larrin did a remarkable job of marketing his new steel, which I think caused the high demand.

sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#23

Post by JRinFL »

Why does everyone keep making Sal repeat himself on this subject? The many previous threads have covered and recovered this ground.
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#24

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Toker said "Any list would be a nightmare to manage". Sal said that is one reason for not offering a "mule buying club". But maybe it could be simplified if both Spyderco and buyers can give a little.

Here is how.
Spyderco creates a new product in their store called the NEXT MULE TEAM It would be listed like any other item such as a sheath or an issued mule. A customer can buy it and pay for it just like any other item. Some risks and responsibilities are taken by the customer and some by Spyderco. Here is basic idea.
1 The purchase is not refundable.
2 The price of the issued mule may be greater or smaller then the "next mule team" price.
3 Spyderco does not change the terms of sale.
4 When issued, the new mules are sent to those who bought the "next mule team" and then made available to the public.
5 The customer is responsible for updating the shipping address.
In other words you would be paying a nonrefundable fixed amount for the next mule team regardless of steel or developing hype or waning interest. The payment (not a credit card) will be held by Spyderco and credited when the next mule is issued.
There are a lot of details which have to be considered like the price, timing, number per household, when listing happens and when availability ends. Of course, the devil is always in the detail.

I would buy this way. Would you?

Bill Maier
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#25

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Sal,
Went to dinner came back finished and posted my response before I read your post which described your current strategy. I understand your current strategy but would you also consider the process suggested in my previous post. It would be simple for you and satisfy the many customers request for a way to reliably get each mule

It would treat the next mule as a product which can be handled by your current automated purchasing system with very few tweaks. You announce a next mule team product (let's call it the nexmule) and list it like a knife. You state the rules which includes no refunds and no time promised. You allow one or two per household. You tweak your order program to allow it to take suspended orders and take a shipping address which will be the default in your account folder. Then send the mules out when done. Check with your IT people to see if this is reasonable and not too time consuming.

It puts the responsibility on those of us who are willing to tie some money up for the certainty of getting every mule regardless of steel or hype.

Dealing with some of the problems highlighted in your post.
1 You would not be dealing with credit cards you would have the money.
2 There will be no adjustments other than a change of address which would be the responsibility of the buyer.
3You would be dealing with only the single nexmule.

As I said I would buy the nexmule. But how many others would? If you think this approach is possible, I will do a poll.

Bill Maier
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#26

Post by Araignee »

KnifeKnuts wrote:
Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:05 pm
This pre-order list proposal seems like a workable solution for Sal and everyone else involved in the Mule Team project.
Sal has previously indicated that a reservation system wouldn't be workable for him :
sal wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:44 pm
Many of the steels that I, Eric or you choose are not easily available. Sometimes I have to work with the foundry or even special order a chemistry, which they have on the books, but not in the ware-house. My K390 project years just to get a batch of steel. Then another year to learn and process the steel to get the optimal performance. Many will not be around or will have lost interest? The bookkeeping would be a nightmare as well as required communication. Add to that we are working on 4-8 steels at any given time. Do we give refunds if necessary for one reason or another?
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#27

Post by KnifeKnuts »

QUICKSILVER wrote:
Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:25 am
Toker said "Any list would be a nightmare to manage". Sal said that is one reason for not offering a "mule buying club". But maybe it could be simplified if both Spyderco and buyers can give a little.

Here is how.
Spyderco creates a new product in their store called the NEXT MULE TEAM It would be listed like any other item such as a sheath or an issued mule. A customer can buy it and pay for it just like any other item. Some risks and responsibilities are taken by the customer and some by Spyderco. Here is basic idea.
1 The purchase is not refundable.
2 The price of the issued mule may be greater or smaller then the "next mule team" price.
3 Spyderco does not change the terms of sale.
4 When issued, the new mules are sent to those who bought the "next mule team" and then made available to the public.
5 The customer is responsible for updating the shipping address.
In other words you would be paying a nonrefundable fixed amount for the next mule team regardless of steel or developing hype or waning interest. The payment (not a credit card) will be held by Spyderco and credited when the next mule is issued.
There are a lot of details which have to be considered like the price, timing, number per household, when listing happens and when availability ends. Of course, the devil is always in the detail.

I would buy this way. Would you?

Bill Maier
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#28

Post by KnifeKnuts »

sal wrote:
Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:18 pm
KnifeKnuts wrote:
Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:05 pm
This list doesn't exist yet. This is just a suggestion to help eliminate the Mule Team challenges that now exist. I currently have 1 or 2 of every Mule Team blade, except for MT14P. I now have 53 Mule blades to use, experiment and collect. None of them are for sale. I've been buying these blades over the past 11-years and instead of getting easier to buy them, it's getting more difficult with each new release. I would like to keep collecting new Mule Team blades until the day that I die. I hate buying these blades from scalpers on the secondary market. This pre-order list proposal seems like a workable solution for Sal and everyone else involved in the Mule Team project. As the list would get longer, additional units could be ordered to meet the increasing demand. A list of buyers committed to purchasing all upcoming Mule releases should help Sal to work up demand quantity projections, well in advance. Imagine receiving all new Mule Team blades delivered to your door without lifting a finger. I simply hope to generate some interest in this suggestion.

Hi KnifeKnuts,

Thanx much for your interest and support of our Mule Team project over the years. While I do appreciate your suggestion, it is really not as simple as it may appear to you. If all you have to do is offer a credit card, then I agree, that it would be simple for you. But we would have to hire a couple of administrators to be able to handle the thousands of knives that would end up on order for a couple of years into the future. They would also have to handle all adjustments which will surely come up. "My credit card was hacked and so it was cancelled". "I moved so you will need to update my numbers". "I changed my mind". "Can I increase fro one to 2"? My budget has changed". etc.etc

That would significantly increase the cost in time and expenses of maintaining the Mule program. We're pretty busy right now and that isn't something that I feel would be a simple solution.

My current strategy is to increase the number produced until we know we're making enough so that everyone that wants one can get one, or two if that's the goal/plan. The 2nd part is to provide a regular Mule team that would always be in inventory. Plus if there are enough to go around, then there will be a few pcs hanging around for a month or so for late purchases.

What I would like to do is play this out and see if it will work. I don't think that the MagnaCut run is indicative of future sales. Larrin did a remarkable job of marketing his new steel, which I think caused the high demand.

sal
Hi Sal,

Thanks for taking the time to reply to my suggestion and for providing this great Mule Team program.

I understand and agree that it could create additional administrative costs and challenges. In the back of my mind, I seem to remember that you have some form of program in place that regularly ships the first of the newest Spyderco knives to a group of dedicated knife collectors. I thought the new Mule Team blades could be handled in much the same way. I was just trying to offer what I thought was an improvement to the Mule Team development and purchasing process from my own perspective. My apologies for not considering all aspects.

I just read another post on this topic this morning that suggested a NexMule purchasing option that I thought sounded like a good idea. You might want to read it. I know that you encourage continual process improvement ideas from your organization.

I know this is off topic, but if you would like a suggestion for a new Mule Team blade steel, I would like to suggest a favorite of mine for the past 52 years. This German stainless steel has been in use by Puma Knives since about the 1960's. I've heard it called D1.4116 or just D1.4. I think it may be similar to D2 steel. It has proven to be a fabulous knife steel that holds and edge very well. I still have that first Puma knife with a D1.4116 blade that I have used since 1970. If D1.4116 isn't available for Mule Team blades for some reason, maybe the newer CPM-D2 with powdered metallurgy could be a possible substitute.

You probably wouldn't remember me, but I think we met at a rock concert at a stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado in about 1973. It was either a Rolling Stones or Bob Dillon concert. I seem to remember that you were selling knife sharpeners out of an old panel truck near the entrance.

Thanks again,
Chris Griffith, aka KnifeKnuts
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sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#29

Post by sal »

Hi Bill, Chris,

While I do appreciate your suggestions and your taking the time to present them. I also respect the fact that you are trying to make sure that you will be able to get the Mule Team pieces. I do't see a way that your suggestions can be done without much administrative requirement, of which, at this time, I am trying to avoid.

Our collector program is a very small number of people and they are grandfathered in. They are also purchasing regular models at regular margins. The Mules are sold consumer direct to avoid the cost and paperwork associated with regular sales.

All of the prepayment concepts will not work if we don't have enough Mules to serve those prepaying. Since the numbers are determined years before delivery is possible, the numbers seem to be the key, not payment.

I will present your ideas to the sales staff. I can assure you that any added administrative requirements will cause the price of the Mules to go up. Keep in mind that this type of a project is already a distraction to the normal business practices. For example, we have two Mules we are working on now that are created glitches due to their difficult manufacture.

We can keep the discussion going, but at this time, I think there are too many variables to the project to nail down a solution, other than make enough.

sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#30

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Sal,
Appreciate your reply. You are correct, I am trying to make sure that I will be able to get the Mule Team pieces. A nexmule offering will require both Spyderco and buyers to give something. Specifically, Spyderco will have to alter its current mule team sales process and nexmule buyers will have to buy without knowing the steel and make a nonrefundable payment months in advance of receiving the mule. There have been a lot of posts wanting a preorder program and the nexmule could satisfy them.

You can think of the nexmule as a separate item from the MT-XX even though they are the same physical item. Both items would be sold consumer direct and avoid the cost and paperwork associated with regular sales. The major administrative cost would be adapting your automated sales program to hold the nexmule for later shipment.

Since the nexmule is like any other product you will have a lot of flexibility. You get to decide:
1 Cost. It can be the same. higher or lower than the subsequently issued MT-XX.
2 The quantity available. No chance of selling more than you produce.
3 When it is put up for purchase. Probably, after you are sure you have a product.
4 To withdraw it from sale at any time.
5 Shipping timing. It could be before or at the time the next mule is shipped.

These are the kind of decisions you normally make and those decisions can solve both the quantity and additional cost problems. You simply set the nexmule available quantity to a fraction of the number you expect and add in any additional nexmule cost in the product listing.

Hope this help make the nexmule concept more concrete.

Bill Maier
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#31

Post by JRinFL »

Every bit of time and energy taken up by these schemes is time and energy removed from other projects. Other projects that make profit and fund the future of Spyderco. "It's only a little bit." or "It's only a straw." It all adds up, just ask the camel. Spyderco is a small company that has World-wide reach due to being smart about their expenditures of time and energy.
Last edited by JRinFL on Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#32

Post by weeping minora »

If the focus and man-power required will further delay regular production models from hitting shelves with their already tapped out production schedules in Golden, this will certainly only become a further detriment to Spyderco. People have already lost interest in Spyderco for not being able to keep their regular production lines stocked. I understand the scope of the Mule Team is much smaller than exclusives, but it further binds the mothership facility in Golden even more and most so. Spyderco has tied their hands with enough exclusives (or variants) and seemingly foregone much of their forward thinking, innovative spirit. That lost parts of their customer base, as well. The Mule Team project is but a tire on the chassis that is Spyderco, not the engine.


The Delica/Endura SuperGold 2 Mass Drop run proves that people are not prepared to put their monies where their mouths are when it comes to being patient to see a return on the fruit of their investments. If Spyderco cannot give what would be deemed a reasonable enough answer to possible delays, mishaps, reduction in number, or outright cancellation of a run in particular, the investor (pre-paid list-waiter, in this instance) would then berate and belittle the bottom-line employee (Spyderco). Spyderco does not deserve that, especially with how gracious they are in what they offer their customer; many times even based on the customer's own suggestions. People cannot even wait for a pre-order through a distributor, as-is; hence the implementation and subsequent re-iteration of the reveal system. S**t happens, but money doesn't account for sense. This problem is perpetual in business.


Where would these lists and pre-payments end and who would it suitably satisfy, anyway? If Spyderco is all for their customer, why make such an exclusive list of people who can hop on and have first dibs at buying already limited production knives? What would these numbers for production and projections be at that point? How many more people would Spyderco have to hire for that feat alone, let alone be assured that they can keep them on board as an employee? I'm not even going to get into the current climate of staffing (read: lack of) that nearly every business has to contend with. The current economical climate provides far too many variables to look at business in such a playful way, at this time. We have to remember as consumers, the employees at Spyderco have to eat too and Mule Team runs, I'm sure, are not paying salaries there.


Too many expectations and not enough solutions to make this sort of idea work.


Hell, sal, if the sales staff are all-in on this, count me in for a subscription of the "Nex Sprint Run" list (*though only for Seki models!).
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sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#33

Post by sal »

Hi Bill, Weeping Minora,

Appreciate the input. I presented the information and thread link to the staff handling the Mule team (which is an aside to their normal responsibilities) and I'll wait to see what their thoughts say.

Frankly, I don't think I'd want to take any money in advance. Just not my style. I know many are easily moved by the promise of money, but to me there are many other more important values. I can see a possible list, but even that can grow into a real PITA.

Where are you? I know that most do not want to list their location when signing up, but to be honest, I really value that information.

sal
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Toker
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#34

Post by Toker »

I'm still not sure why it's worth putting in the effort for a list. The SRS13 was available for anyone that wanted one for several days. If the future run quantities are increased, people shouldn't have an issue placing an order for one.

Obviously, I want to be able to order 2 Mules, but I'm willing to wait for the limit of 1 Mule to be lifted if that would allow all the people who want 1 to get their chance.
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#35

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Sal,
I am in Gunnison, Colorado. Lived in Lakewood before I retired and have visited the store several times. Have two of every mule (a user with a handle and a naked collector) and about 30 other spydercos. I am in my 80s and have hundreds of other knives. The only knives I buy now are mules and occasionally am inexpensive kitchen knife.

Taking the money up front and not allowing refunds gives the buyer "skin in the game". It also simplifies the purchase for you by making it like any other sale. Thus, allowing you to use a standard automated purchase process. I hope your current computer application will be easily adaptable and not require an additional or separate list but just the deferral of delivery.

The nexmule process is NOT a list so buyers automatically get every mule in the steel of their choice with no effort or commitment on their part. It is a process that die hard mule buyers can use to increase their odds of getting the nest issued mule. It requires them to tie up money for the privilege of getting it regardless of steel. It also puts way less burden on Spyderco than a list sign up.

Think of each mule sale as a cycle of steps. If a nexmule product is offered this is how it will work from Sal's point of view:
1 There is no nexmule listed for sale in the spyderco on line store.
2 When you are pretty sure you will offer a mule in a few months, you announce the listing of the nexmule on the forum and put it up for sale with a limited number available at a cost of your choosing.
3 The nexmule will either sell out or you will remove it from sale before you announce the MT-XX mule for sale.
4 Announce the mule in a particular steel (MT-XX) just as currently done.
5 Deliver the MT-XX mules. Note, since you did not promise a particular steel this may not be the steel you originally envisioned for the nexmule.
6 Remove the nexmule listing from the on line store. Start at step 1 for the next mule.

Like others on this thread, I appreciate your customer centered business approach. It is a reflection of your outstanding character and of an admirable person.

Finally, I want to apologize to Bolster for hijacking his thread. Just got carried away and couldn't stop.

Bill Maier
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#36

Post by weeping minora »

To be fair, I added my last sentence in sarcasm. I know black-and-white can be construed as literal, but my intentions were not. I just took the idea to another level; as I see it, if this is allowed, why not allow access to every future model, just because of those on an exclusive list.


Spyderco has been and increases to be, tight-lipped over the past few years and I believe, rightfully so. This idea would, by nature, leak details of models in advance to parties subscribed, leaking information, causing both hype and dismay in the knife communities, which by all rights I believe your reveal process has tried to mitigate, over the past few years now. This just all sounds like a glorified way to add a pre-order option when ordering from the SFO.


I am not in favor of this idea; as I see far too many variables that will, above all, end up disappointing more than it would intend to do. The acts to please the few will undoubtedly disrupt the many in this case. The way it is, is the way it should be. First come, first served when it comes to these limited releases. A pre-order option through the SFO would be an idea, though, for standard production models.


For what it's worth, I reside in San Diego, California.
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sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#37

Post by sal »

I appreciate the spirited discussion. The staff involved is watching this thread to see where the're at with the concept. Our staff is smart and they are quite good at what they do. I trust that if anyone can make such a thing work, then can. Noting happens overnight. We move slowly, but steadily.

sal
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#38

Post by wes »

I own around 50-ish Spydercos, maybe 20 of those are mules. The mule is pretty much the only knife I buy these days and is my favorite knife overall. I use them for hiking, hunting, kitchen, opening boxes, EDC and everything in between. I would be happy to place a nonrefundable order a few times per year for two of whatever the next upcoming mule is.

As a side note, I decided to learn how to put my own handle scales on this year instead of relying on bolt on scales. Just finished a burlap Micarta MagnaCut and currently working on SRS13/SUS405. If I can figure out how to post some photos, I'll be happy to share.
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#39

Post by ChrisinHove »

If I remember correctly, the mule team project was all but mothballed not all that long ago due to inadequate interest.

It’s ironic that the prospect of scarcity breeds the additional interest that guarantees it.
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Re: Check my math for mule demand.

#40

Post by Bolster »

QUICKSILVER wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:07 pm

Finally, I want to apologize to Bolster for hijacking his thread. Just got carried away and couldn't stop.

Bill Maier

No apology needed, Bill, have at! You are having important conversations with Da Man. Following with interest.
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