POLL: Should Mule Team purchases be limited to one???

[standy99]

Funny thing is there was only 500 a few steels back that sold out in 12 minutes and no one really made a fuss like Magnacut

It was a Magnacut frenzy.

[Cadenno]

Hello everyone.

If the problem, and the purpose of this survey is to eliminate the flippers and at the same time give more possibility to everyone to take their own mule, a possible solution could be that Spyderco directly puts 5 or 10% of the mules production in the secondary market.
Raising the price just enough to cover the cost of this operation.
Taking away the possibility of big money from the flippers is eliminating the problem.

Decreasing the amount of mules from 2 to 1 means that many people will avoid testing hard the only mule they have for fear of ruining it.
Having 2 instead you can use one for testing, and one for collection or as a fixed blade to keep.

[Crox]

Spyderco seems to understand supply and demand.

Make more. Raise prices.

[Pokey]

Maybe someone can answer this question , how many were made ? I’ve read 2,000 is that correct ? Someone at SFO slipped and said 2,500 to me checking on my order . I’m not sure if any amount made would have stopped any flipper from playing the game to get them on eBay. It’s a very unfortunate situation for those who were unable to get one ,I would be angry too .

I wonder if they bump that number up to include some factory seconds?

[Pokey]

Funny thing is there was only 500 a few steels back that sold out in 12 minutes and no one really made a fuss like Magnacut

It was a Magnacut frenzy.

Yes, after the interest in the Mule Team blades waned a few years back it caught on again and took off like a wildfire. Reading Sal's posts it sounds like they couldn't/didn't anticipate the renewed interest in the program. With all the p/r about MagnaCut they knew it would be a popular blade and bumped up the number to 2000 blades. And really, how can Spyderco top the sales of the MagnaCut Mule, other than to make more?

[Tucson Tom]

As has already been said, I think this particular mule was an anomaly due to the excitement and enthusiasm over Magnacut. So let things stand as is for a while. After another 9 or 10 mules we will know whether it makes sense to limit orders to one.

I also find it curious that the mule team project fizzled, was dropped for a while, and now has been started up again amid wild enthusiasm. I simply don't know what to say about that. Back in the day when it had fizzled I saw the PD1 mule (essentially Cruwear made by Carpinter Steel) sit on the shelves for what seemed like months. I actually have 4 of those here because of my interest in handle making. People are fickle and it remains to be seen where things will go, but I certainly am glad that Spyderco saw fit to get the mules going again.

[Bolster]

How about factory engraving mule blades with: "Flippers can go straight to H3LL" or something? That wouldn't bother anyone the but flippers, am I right?

At first I thought this was the perfect counter-action ! But then I remembered that it's "us" buying to flippers. I personally do not, but someone does.

LOL, true, true. Well, maybe inscribe it in Latin so it looks fancy? "Flippers ad infernum"? OK, maybe not the best solution after all...

[Bolster]

I also find it curious that the mule team project fizzled, was dropped for a while, and now has been started up again amid wild enthusiasm. I simply don't know what to say about that. Back in the day when it had fizzled I saw the PD1 mule (essentially Cruwear made by Carpinter Steel) sit on the shelves for what seemed like months. I actually have 4 of those here because of my interest in handle making. People are fickle and it remains to be seen where things will go, but I certainly am glad that Spyderco saw fit to get the mules going again.

Same here!!! It's so odd! And it could happen again in a heartbeat. I can just imagine Spyderco putting out 3K pieces of the next Mule and 300 of them sell...

Clearly what's needed is some way of judging demand.

That might be estimated by polling the forum. Ask "How many you going to buy" (like was done for Magnacut) and then see if there is a relatively stable proportional relationship. Say the forum says it wants 300, use some multiplier (yet to be determined, but could be determined over time...for example say it's x5) and maybe 300 on the forum means 1500 is a good guess. For some other steel, maybe 100 forumites say they want it...so produce 500, and so on.

Two releases of the same might also be an answer, but at added complexity...judge demand by the first, and then put out a second release of the same, 6 months later. Nah, that has too many moving parts. I think the mathematical estimation is easier.

[Bolster]

OK, this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=89212&start=160

...indicated forumite demand for 477 mules. How many might have sold? Usually you hear the 2000 number, but let's guess that 2500 would have sold if they'd been available. The multiplier for the 2000 number is x4.1, the multiplier for 2500 would have been x5.2.

So a starting point might be x5 whatever polls on the forum as a ballpark figure. Repeating this calc over time would increase its accuracy.

Another way to estimate saturation would be to look at the selling price of flips on eBay. The lower the markup for sold flips, the more that saturation was actually reached.

[Bolster]

Following up on the above "eBay estimation method," if you look at the 15 lowest priced sold flips on eBay for the MC mule, you get an average of $152. That's a markup of just 2x for the MC mule. I've seen a lot of flips at 3x prices, so maybe the MC mule was closer to market saturation than other runs...?

For example, the Z-wear mule averages at $165 sold price on eBay. (Could only find 9 sold that were sold stock.) The Z-wear sold for $50 each, so flip multiplier is 3.3x. To me, that indicates more relative demand for the Z-wear, based on unavailability. I'd guess the Z-wear production numbers were "more under-estimated" than the the MC numbers.

Spyderco may not have missed their MC saturation numbers by much...!

And if Mules are left sitting on the shelf, the mathematically-challenged will start saying "not much demand for that one," which can start a rumor. If you hadn't noticed, the knife community runs on rumors...!

[sal]

Hi Cadenno,

Welcome to our forum.

sal

[Tucson Tom]

You know, you just have to ignore the flippers. I don't like them any more than anyone else does. Pretty much like spam phone calls (telemarketers), I don't waste time on them, hang up immediately, don't even let my emotions get engaged. Unwanted call, no problem, I have a fixed plan of action. Don't say a word, hang up immediately and forget about it in 2 seconds.

My emotional energy is a finite resource and I don't waste it on trivial things like flippers. Enough said.

[Cadenno]

Hi Cadenno,

Welcome to our forum.

sal

Thank you very much!

Happy holidays!

[JRinFL]

<snip>
My emotional energy is a finite resource and I don't waste it on trivial things like flippers. Enough said.

Wisdom.

[standy99]

<snip>
My emotional energy is a finite resource and I don't waste it on trivial things like flippers. Enough said.

Wisdom.

Flippers are like mosquitoes fishing, annoying…you know they are going to be there, been around for years not going anywhere, but your there for the fishing…

[DansGearAddiction]

I don't know if it's possible, but I'd rather see Mule's sold in a "order book" fashion. Order as many as you'd like, we're opening the books for a week and making that quantity plus some for SFO. We'll ship them out when the production run is complete. This would reduce scalping and eliminate under/over production worries.

I was excited to pick up a Z-Wear Mule, but ultimately missed the sale (set my reminder to the wrong day -- oops!) and they were all gone when I went to grab it.

[yablanowitz]

I've been in on every drop since MT01, and this was the worst traffic jam I've ever seen. Part of that may be because TazKristi posted all my tricks for all to see. Sal dis say several times that they made 2000 of these, but it could have been even more. That's triple the number normally available, and it sure doesn't look to me like Mule Team forum traffic has tripled, or even doubled. I don't think interest in the project as such has increased that much, I think the sales are being driven by the price.

I committed to buying two of each before the price was announced on the first one. I had to buy factory seconds of the Z Max and Z Wear, to fulfill that commitment. I would prefer a limit of two, but I will do what I have to short of buying from flippers.

[TkoK83Spy]

After seeing how this went, I think it should be limited to one per customer. I know I've seen plenty of people here on this forum say they got their two, and then we haven't heard or seen a thing about this Magnacut mule aside from maybe a handful of people so far?? I was under the impression that the point of the Mule Team was for Sal and Co. to get as much feedback as they can on the steel based on everyone's uses and how they sharpen, etc. I don't know if there's other forms of social media that people are reporting back to, but so far here on this forum it's been nearly non existent (though I thank people that have contributed their findings so far with their Mules)

That said, what's the point in having 2?? MANY people missed out, people that would likely be using theirs and reporting back. The more to go around, the merrier I think! MAKE IT ONE!

On the flipper aspect, yes...we all hate them, but I've found the best way to avoid getting worked up over them is to not seek them out in the first place. Stay off eBay!

[defenestrate]

I think 2 is reasonable. Mules have been hot this year, and a MagnaCut Mule was certain to be - I don't think there was a reasonable way to estimate demand, but by my understanding 2000 was the largest order plausible at the time. This isn't a very good indicator of how other Mules will sell - they are hot but eventually, demand will settle mostly to people who are into the program and not mostly secondary market folks.

I did fine, having stuck to it, but I think there was about a 15 or 20 minute window, almost an hour in, where most people still on it had a good shot. This is not an uncommon thing to happen when demand is high for an online site, especially once automation no the part of flippers is involved.

[WilliamMunny]

By the way, flippers certainly manage to play around the 2 by house limit by using different credit cards and sending the orders at their friends' homes.

I totally agree with this. A limit of one would only hurt honest people on this board. Someone flipping them would find a way around it with multiple accounts, shipping to friends/family, VPNs, etc.