Mule Team quantity discussion

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sal
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Mule Team quantity discussion

#1

Post by sal »

Hi All,

Happy Valentine's Day. One of the days that you make the time to appreciate your loved ones.

Back on subject. The most recent Mule Team sale was off by quite a bit on the demand. We thought it might sell faster than the last one (years to go), but we did run out. We don't know how many we should have made. It's just a guess. We prefer to have enough for everyone that wants one or the purpose and goal of the project suffers.

On the general forum, another forumite, Potahto, was ribbing us for not adopting a better system of guessing. Since I have a "Drafty Brain" (open mind), I thought about it with regards to the Mule and other models and decided that we need to do something to sort the issue. The problems with General models, exclusives, sprints, etc. will go on the general, but there is no better place to discuss Mules than here.

The Mule Team project was to be a test bed, mostly for knife Junky's to be able to compare "the stuff" without the hub-bub and cost of a custom. We (I) felt it would be a workable format. The first time I presented the idea, back in the day, on this forum, maybe 04 or ? I was shot down for a variety of reasons from; not wanted and serves no purpose to we couldn't do it. The next teem I presented the concept, there was more positive here on the forum so we went for it.

I will not say it was an easy project, and we could not have done it without the participation of our great staff and the makers and foundries. But in the end we were able to pull it off for some 26 examples. I believe there were only two that were flawed for one reason or another. Sorry to say we (I) lost a really good member over his anger towards me for not having a solution for him. My Bad, looking back I probably could have ultimately come up with a solution, but I was ribbing him back.

So now it's an all new ball game with a different market and different new steels with which the foundries are agreeable to participate. We've some great "experimental" blade steel materials to play with. We've already have the next 3 in motion so little change may be possible, but we'll need input on the path forward. I've come up with some thought, below, but I would like a dialectic on this. I have always felt that "Sharing Thoughts" was a valuable way of employing more than one brain.

1. Only one per customer.
2. Build more, how many is another discussion.
3. Pre-sell them over a period of time, keeping mind that from steel order to finished product could be more than a year. Remember, we also have to learn how to work each steel.
4. Space out sales with parameters
5. Have different quantities built for each steel and as Potahto suggested, maybe some type of poll to see if we can guess demand?
6. Your thoughts?

sal
Bemo
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#2

Post by Bemo »

I applaud you for this thread. It speaks well of you and is an example of why many of us are fans of you, your company, and your great products.

I thought a little about this since the the discussion started. I definitely see the challenges, make 1200 of a steel folks aren't enamored of and you have stock gathering dust and don't recoup your investment. Not sure if that's what happened with the PD#1 or not but yeah 2 years or more to sell your stock of those seems a long time, but I also don't work retail.

I'm really curious how well the polls end up reflecting sales. In your experience does the verbal commitments indicated on the forum accurately reflect the true demand/sales? If so, then I think a combination of polling to determine steel type and quantity and perhaps phasing of the sales.
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Josh Crutchley
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#3

Post by Josh Crutchley »

I'm glad to see Spyderco being open to change and the desire for community feedback is huge. I'm not opposed to the limit of 1 since they're meant to be users. The quantity would definitely have to go up but with the limit of 1 not sure by how much. The idea of selling sets of similar or contrasting steels was brought up in another thread. I would like to see the option to buy some of the older mules.
yablanowitz
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#4

Post by yablanowitz »

I hate to say it, but the solution I see working the best is going to be the least popular option: put the middlemen in and normal markup as well. It has been fantastic being able to try new steels without breaking the bank, but as far as I can see, that ride is over. The word has spread, the Mules are (and always were) a steal. Snap them up and flip them for a profit.

Part of the demand seems to be for a "kit knife". Something that people can get, build scales for, etc. That could be addressed by a regular production piece in a regular production steel (or two). It probably won't sell if the Mules are still factory direct, though.
QUICKSILVER
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#5

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Here is my humble input.
1 Please keep it at 2. I could work around this by getting others to buy some for me but since the might be unreliable, I might end up with 3.
2 Reissue would be nice for those who missed out like #29 but you still have the same problems as with the original issue. How many and when.
3 I would buy 2 and leave the money with you. You can't get any interest these days anyway. You could do this in association with other efforts. In fact this would be my #1 pick.
4 Sounds reasonable to leave at least 3 months between new issues. I don't know what you mean by change parameters.
5 Might be worth a shot. A poll for the already planned mules might allow you to measure its validity and allow you to modify it to do better. Would be worth discussing on this forum.
6 Thanks for the mule program.

Bill Maier
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#6

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Sal,
Another thought. Why not start a "Mule Club" where members would get 1 or 2 of all new mules. This would require an on file credit card and a requirement to take and pay for all mules currently announced. The contract would state the card would be charged after a date you set in the announcement on this forum. This would put some responsibility on those who complain about not getting a mule. They could have skin in the game.

Another approach would be a non refundable partial down payment. When and % are issues here. The number who preorder would give you an idea of how many to produce.

Bill Maier
SharpSmitty
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#7

Post by SharpSmitty »

Bravo Sal and the rest of the Spyderco team for engaging your customers so clearly and openly. Hopefully the dialogue helps bridge the gap between the hobby of your customers and the business of your family. I hope the "ribbing" of some disappointed customers doesn't detract from the excitement of bringing a successful product to market.

Hopefully a constructive dialogue here on the forums will only help to improve the business model so that customers are excited about the products and your business is successful in serving them.

I am excited to have ordered my first Mule this round after having missed out on past opportunities. I only ordered one, hoping that someone else would be able to experience the knife as well. I didn't think flipping a second Mule in the secondary market was the right move for the Mule Team project.
LanM
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#8

Post by LanM »

I vastly prefer the "presale and wait till you get it" approach to this problem.

Most of these responses are crafted from the perspective that the primary goal of the existence of these is to produce performance and market feedback for a new potential steel to be offered in other subsequent pieces down the road.

#1- Keep the limits at least where they are. 1 each might be too exclusive. If true technical experimental feedback is what you want, more than one is almost a necessity. Some collectors will not want to beat the living snot out of the only one they have, and that will skew your feedback if you want true performance data feedback from the market. I’m new to this but I can attest to that wholeheartedly, but I can also tell you since you allowed me to buy two I will use the living snot out of the first one and let you know exactly what happens. Shipping benefits are also contributing factor for many I’m guessing.

#’2-5 covered below.

#6- also covered below but presale will take the ambiguity out of production #’s. Keep the presale window open for a period, 90 days Or whatever you deem pertinent. That takes any temporal issues out of the mix as even those hiding under a rock will have the time to be informed of the upcoming run, and it significantly reduces the financial consideration since it gives a knife guy three months to scrape together his hundred bucks or whatever the heck it’ll cost if that’s a problem for the interested party. So the quality of your feedback in sampling is not just reduced to whomever might happen to have that disposable income at that particular time.


Pre-sale is much more common these days-- kickstarter, etc. People accept the fact that sometimes you have to wait...that's just how it is if you want something. If you don't accept the terms, don't buy it...no continued attention necessary on Spyderco's part, no endless responses and justifications for the variety of what will be ultimately flawed but good intentioned approaches for a democratic solution otherwise. It’s not a lot of cash to throw out into the ether until something shiny shows up in its place.

Pre-selling allows an accurate gauge of production need so there’s no screaming from the bleachers that we’ll never get one or that in order to get one we have to excuse ourselves to the restroom to make a purchase on our phone within a specific window. Some of us don’t have the luxury of availability at will. I want to be able to buy something at midnight if that’s when my free time exists, and I sure as heck would rather spend 100 bucks a year in advance than have to make sure that I hover over a keyboard when somethings available.

Pre-selling will reduce secondary market markup and dilutes the exclusivity of the product so it can focus on being what it was intended to be. Higher production=increased sample size and better experimental results in theory at least right.

Pre-selling produces up front revenue which is much more likely to keep a low profit or marginal profit project running, and we want that. I’m sure if it becomes too much of a pain the project It’ll get dropped and if I had the choice I’d rather pay upfront and wait until Spyderco is good and ready to send it to me than never get an opportunity to buy it again. I’d also rather pre-buy several different varieties to guarantee that they actually become available.

Pre-selling avoids the 50 different democratic strategies that could be taken to figure out who gets what, and why...if another method is used.

Not many downsides, to solve the problem of developing a shipment lottery maybe make the distribution a bulk drop after full production is run to minimize the hassle associated with figuring out who gets theirs first?

At the end of the day I think it’s most important to come up with a method that reduces the hassle on the manufacturers part so that we still all get to benefit from the availability-keep the ball rolling.
Last edited by LanM on Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:29 am, edited 3 times in total.
Jablang
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#9

Post by Jablang »

The presale model that Kickstarter/Indiegogo uses would be great, and it’s become much more popular these days. I know I’ve waited quite some time even on some products that didn’t turn out so great from freshman companies. Since it’s Spyderco and an already refined/established piece, that takes much of the worry out.
Rwstubbz
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#10

Post by Rwstubbz »

Sal,
Hey I really appreciate your drafty attic. I want to pose a couple of solutions. I actually have missed out on many...many of the releases that I either couldn't afford at the time, of sold out before I could get in. The last one, (spy27) I was really looking forward to putting through the ringers being that it seems like it may out perform my expectations based on my recent testing it sold out before I got off work. Anyway, down to brass tacks.
-how about bringing back the old MT releases but in smaller batches? Or...
-pre-order is a great model, but payment plans, 5-7 dollars a month?? might be better in a situation where it takes a year to deliver. I'd spend 50 dollars a month for 10 mule teams in my chosen steels in a year.
- monthly box subscriptions with mule teams and gear, stickers, patches, coins etc.
Just a few ideas. You can contact me for more. I definitely have ideas that could expand the brand. I love spyderco and would be willing to give you more ideas free of charge if you would expand your domestic operations and put more Americans to work doing it. Much appreciated for letting us chime in.
Rwstubbz
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#11

Post by Rwstubbz »

How about making them available to retailers once they have been on the market for long enough for the enthusiasts to get their share. Or to custom makers. I've seen many many custom MT models on sale just because the maker has made some custom scales.
Last edited by Rwstubbz on Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Tucson Tom
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#12

Post by Tucson Tom »

There are things we out here in user land just don't know about how this has to be done. Can you keep making small batches of mules now and then and put things back in stock that sell out quick? I don't know. You did heavily promote the mule team concept the past month or two and the time when the program was dormant probably helped to boost demand even more. I suspect demand for the next mule (the S45VN) will not be so crazy. The Z-wear (am I getting these right) is likely to be crazy or crazier. But except for that exception (and possibly others that will come along), I expect demand to taper off.

So my personal opinion

-- I like the limit of 2, but beggars can't be choosers, if it has to be 1, so be it.
-- I like the idea of a pre-sale (not a pre-order). People pay up front, trust Spyderco, and are willing to wait a year or more.
That works for me.

-- I have no idea how to predict demand really. You can gauge how much you fell short by how many bitter and vocal people post on the forum about not getting a blade. Maybe each upset forumite represents a shortfall of 50 in quantity. I am being silly of course, but the principle has merit. But balance that against the fact that there is ALWAYS someone who will be upset and complain no matter what you do.

-- I will mention again the idea of having a steel like SPY27 stay continually available for the knife crafters. This isn't quite the idea of the original program (getting new steels into the hands of enthusiasts), but addresses what has been proven to be an exciting and actually very cool outcome of the program.

And I'll say lastly, Thank You! I feel it is a special privilege to get my hands on just one of these mules. It really is a gift to the enthusiasts, at least that is how I see it. I am still astounded that Spyderco does this at all -- it shows that they have priorities beyond just money and profit and business, but have a passion for knives and the knife community. No free shipping on mules! You are already doing enough for us crazy people.
fixall
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#13

Post by fixall »

Sal,

Thank you so much for the open communication on this subject. It's very much appreciated by us as I'm sure you must know by now.

1. I only purchased one this go around because I had a strong feeling that the supply was going to be much more limited than the demand. In the spirit of the knife, I wanted to do my best to make sure someone didn't miss out because I decided to buy two. That being said, I would have really liked to have purchased two.

2. I think building more would be a very good idea. Not only are people becoming more and more interested in the different steels (one only has to look at the popularity of Larrin Thomas' Patreon to prove that point), but knife making is also becoming more and more popular. The Mule Team is easily the most affordable blank on the market that uses not only "high-end" steel, but often new, cutting edge (no pun intended) steel. I also think increased production would help curb the second hand market scalpers. If you go on ebay, Mule Team knives have been selling for $150 - $300 like clockwork for at least a couple of years now.

3. I think pre-selling would be the way to go. Previously the intention of this program hasn't been to make a large profit... But to get different steels in the hands of enthusiasts and edge-junkies. I don't think most enthusiasts and edge-junkies would have any issue with pre-paying and waiting for a Mule-Team release. Even with the year wait, the Mule Teams are often the easiest and quickest way to get a hold of a new/high-end steel. I think this would also help to reduce Spyderco's risk since they will only be producing an amount close to the number ordered and paid for.

4. I think spacing out sales could help, but only if there is a household limit in place. I didn't take part in the "seconds" sale, but people seem to think the spaced out sales helped. Some of Great Eastern Cutlery's drops are spread out over weeks and it doesn't seem to alleviate the mad rush to grab those at all though. In fact, when there isn't a household limit, it seems to make it worse as the same people tend to end up with multiples of the same GEC (which end up on ebay more often than not), while others are left with none.

5. Having different quantities of each model also seems like the way to go in my opinion. It's easy enough to look at how fast some models of the Mule Team have sold compared to others. How you figure that out which steel will be popular is a whole other can of worms. I think pre-sales would alleviate this too.

6. The only other real alternative I can see to increasing production numbers or possibly doing pre-sales, would be to increase the price of the Mule Teams. That seems to go against the spirit of the project though.

Just spitballing... What about a Mule Team Collector program where you sign up and agree to purchase each Mule Team released at a very reasonable price. Then you can produce "X" amount extra to sell in the webstore at a markup to non Mule Team Collector members? Or maybe multiple batches of popular steel? I think it would curb the crazy resell prices if the scalpers knew another batch of the most in demand Mule Team knives were likely to be produced. It might also stop collectors from paying the crazy scalper prices if they knew they would have another chance. By lowering the sky high resell prices, it should help alleviate the mad dash to grab a Mule Team before they sell out. Maybe the first batch could be a bit more expensive than the second batch. That would also help alleviate the secondhand market prices.

I am SO excited to see the return of the Mule Team program!
Last edited by fixall on Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Edge-UpWI
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#14

Post by Edge-UpWI »

I think pre-ordering is perfect! I think many of us would be happy to wait as long as it takes as long as we know we get one.

Thanks for listening!
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#15

Post by mikey177 »

If you will do a poll, maybe it should be done across different platforms, as some folks are only on Facebook while others are on Blade Forums etc.

And I would also like to thank Spyderco for reviving the Mule Team project.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#16

Post by Rwstubbz »

I love the idea of an interactive site where results can be posted.
Last edited by Rwstubbz on Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Henry_P
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#17

Post by Henry_P »

LanM wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:47 pm
I vastly prefer the "presale and wait till you get it" approach to this problem.

Pre-sale is much more common these days-- kickstarter, etc. People accept the fact that sometimes you have to wait...that's just how it is if you want something. If you don't accept the terms, don't buy it...no continued attention necessary on Spyderco's part, no endless responses and justifications for the variety of what will be ultimately flawed but good intentioned approaches for a democratic solution otherwise.

I agree. I think the presale option would be the best. That way the demand can be judged based on the amount of orders.

You don’t get stuck with a bunch of inventory if they don’t sell and you don’t get a bunch of people upset that they missed out.

Some people may be turned off by paying for something a year in advance but that seems like the best option to me.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#18

Post by TomAiello »

I would really like to see the limit stay at 2, and not be reduced to 1.

I think that pre-sales would help a lot. I'd personally be happy to pay a year (or more) in advance to lock in mules. I'm not sure how other people feel about it, but I'd definitely be into that.

As a bonus, if you were pre-selling to establish demand, there would be no reason to limit sales. You could let people pre-purchase ten if they wanted to. They'd just have to come up with the money to pre-order. I bet you'd even see dealers putting in orders for 10 or 20 at a time, if you let them mark them up (a little--not scalping prices) after the run sold out.
Last edited by TomAiello on Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tucson Tom
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#19

Post by Tucson Tom »

The mule team "club" idea is attractive, especially if you can choose whether to be in for one or for two. I'd be in immediately if this program was in place.

It is sort of a variation on the presale idea and could certainly work along with it. It establishes a known baseline of what will be sold for sure, then Spyderco just has to decide how many to produce for sale at some drop date if they want to also do that as well (or would it be by presale only?).
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#20

Post by Cambertree »

Hey Sal,

Thanks as always for your draughty...er, open mind :D and seeking feedback on this. :)

You and the Spydercrew have done the best you can in the circumstances, and as you say, these things can be quite hard to judge. Hindsight’s a fine thing.

- I think a limit of two per person is reasonable.

- A staggered release over several hours, or a day might be helpful for those of us who live in different time zones, as long as the limit of two continues to apply to the whole release of that particular MT.

- I’d be up for a pre order system.

- As far as a subscription to the whole series, I’m not interested in every new steel. I would consider it though, if that’s what you decided to go with.

- I don’t think polls will necessarily predict demand. If you look at the exchange on BF, there’s a lot of people who don’t seem to participate in the forums, but just appear to get into the buying and selling of knives like any other collectible or commodity. Polls may give a rough indicator of which steels are likely to be favoured over others though.

- Yes increasing production would be good. Is the next increment from a run of 600 straight to 1200? If the knives are made in Golden, is it possible to test the waters with a run of say, 800 or 1000?

Thanks for doing this and keeping the price so reasonable. I look on this project as a gift to the knife knut community, I’m grateful for it, and always like to hear everyones feedback on each new steel which has been released. :cool: :) :spyder:
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