Mule Team quantity discussion

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Tucson Tom
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#81

Post by Tucson Tom »

edlaffoon wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:23 pm
Tucson Tom wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:02 pm
There are at least 3 different perspectives to look at this from -- and I think I can sit in each seat and see the point of view.
Exactly, I agree almost completely, except that my point was there is no NEED to argue about snoozing and losing. Its not a question of why or if it should be addressed. It's a question if it is addressed, then how.

FWIW I got mine. I just don't really understand the third perspective. More knives is better for everyone
Definitely nothing to argue about. Just different views from different sides of the moose.

More knives is better until Spyderco has knives sitting on the shelves and starts viewing the mule team project as a liability. I am all for more knives short of that point -- I don't want anyone to miss out and I have no sympathy for flippers.

The other angle from Spydercos perspective is they tie up a production facility making mules (which generate almost no profit) when they could be making Shaman's to make a decent profit on. They are apparently willing to do that up to a point, but I'll admit that I am only guessing at how this works from their standpoint.

Sal already said that the steel for 6 more mules is already set -- so the quantity numbers for those has been decided. This discussion thus is about the mules beyond that (.... imagine mules beyond 6 more!) How sales go with those will certainly provide useful data -- if they continue to sell like hotcakes then it only makes sense to bump the numbers, etc.
Rinzler
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#82

Post by Rinzler »

Bolster wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:16 pm

I don't think 'profit made' is a parenthetic qualifier. I think 'profit made' is the main point. Spyderco staying financially healthy is incomparably more important than whether I get another limited-run knife or not.

In addition, once the pent-up demand for Mules passes (as it has before), unsold knives sitting on shelves in a warehouse is worse for everyone.

Supply and demand issues are typically solved by raising price to meet demand. I would rather see more money go to Spyderco and less money to scalpers. The moral difference is huge: Spyderco creates. Scalpers are parasitic. If Spyderco raised the price of mules to $100 each, you'd have more product available to people who were sufficiently motivated to obtain it.

Yeah, I'll say it: The belly-aching comes from the price of Mules being too low. Then mass entitlement kicks in. If the mule team is going to continue, then it needs to pull its weight, profit-wise, for the company.
Good points.

Maybe there could have a preorder process for buyers at $X. Any product overages go to the SFO at $X*2. That would be highly motivating to potential buyers to purchase via preorders.
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FullScaler
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#83

Post by FullScaler »

I have been mulling this over for a while as well as reading all replies and taking the time to think through it.

No matter which way you slice it, it is a tough decision to make without a perfect solution in sight.

Two thought I have had.

1. Increase both the price (margin) and quantity produced. I realize the point of the Mule team is to get new steels into afi's hands but I am sure that those of us who really want them wouldn't mind paying 10, 20, 30% more if it ensures the program survives and is worthwhile for all. This would also make it less of a liability if certain runs (PD1, I'm lookin at you) sat on the shelves for a while.

2. The other idea I had that I have not heard yet is a sliding pricing scale. This would also require an increased production volume but would add a more substantial margin upon initial release and then have the price reduced over set periods of time until it reaches a certain floor price. This would inhibit flipping margins at the onset as well as incentivise product sales over time if there is stock left after the initial release. It could allow for margin to allow stock to be carried over time. This would ensure there is always stock for someone who wants to get one, while decreasing price over time to ensure less popular models don't sit on the shelf forever.

Perhaps a hybrid of the pre-order system as well as the sliding scale pricing would work? Pre-order at cost and know that you would have to wait a year or so to get it. Release date has increased prices over pre-order. If stock does not sell out quickly then price decreases over a set time.

Something like this could also almost provide enough time for repeat runs of extremely desirable runs as pre-order numbers would indicate the total amount of product needed and release date allowable margin to ensure sustainability.

So many ideas with so many ways this could be run.

No matter which way things go, I really appreciate the Mule team program as well as the open communication about how it moves forward.
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sal
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#84

Post by sal »

Hi Izzo, Mrtramplefoot,

Welcome o our forum.

sal
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edlaffoon
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#85

Post by edlaffoon »

Bolster wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:16 pm
edlaffoon wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:23 pm
More knives is better for everyone (provided a reasonable profit is made by spyderco and the foundry).

I don't think 'profit made' is a parenthetic qualifier. I think 'profit made' is the main point. Spyderco staying financially healthy is incomparably more important than whether I get another limited-run knife or not.

In addition, once the pent-up demand for Mules passes (as it has before), unsold knives sitting on shelves in a warehouse is worse for everyone.

Supply and demand issues are typically solved by raising price to meet demand. I would rather see more money go to Spyderco and less money to scalpers. The moral difference is huge: Spyderco creates. Scalpers are parasitic. If Spyderco raised the price of mules to $100 each, you'd have more product available to people who were sufficiently motivated to obtain it.

Yeah, I'll say it: The belly-aching comes from the price of Mules being too low. Then mass entitlement kicks in. If the mule team is going to continue, then it needs to pull its weight, profit-wise, for the company.
The scalpers do not have an issue buying the $100, $200, $300 or more knives. This is well established with the sprints and exclusives. Raising the price does not fix the supply/demand (please note this is simply my observation based opinion) and inexpensive is a mule hallmark, almost a requirement of the program. They are meant to be used as mules, not stabled like horses.

I'll modify my original stament to clarify the intent: more knives SOLD is better for everybody.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#86

Post by Rp5 »

Edlaffoon's point is valid that the easiest solution is to make more, but I also very much agree with Tucson Tom's point that more knives increases the risk for Spyderco. Also see Bolster's point that the low price drives high demand.

I like the idea of the mule collectors club, and I think that's one way to have a partly fixed demand. Allow people to join at One or Two knives per run, and you have a more predictable demand for the next X number of runs. Your hardcore mule nuts can still get the two knives per run they want, and you can keep the price as low as you have historically. Beyond that... limit knives to One per customer, and raise the price 10-20% above the club price. That way there's less risk for Spyderco and less incentive for flippers (unless they join the club, which is again predictable demand.) The price would still be reasonable to the open market, and regular customers could at least get one to try. Spyderco can know how many club members they have: for example say 150 member, purchasing 250 quantity. You can then make 600 quantity knowing that 350 will hit the open market, and won't be bought by 200 people buying 2. If the example is more like 300 club members purchasing 600 quantity - even then Spyderco will know zero will hit the open market, let customers down easy, and maybe make plans for larger production runs or reruns of steels that didn't hit the open market. You may need to limit joining the club until production exceeds member quantities, but at least then you could have a waitlist. I know that adding a club adds complexity, but the easy solutions have significant risk. Limit one knife per customer: some of your most loyal customers will be miffed. Run polls on demand to make more: Spyderco takes increased liability in the face of very limited diagnostic feedback.

Personally I own a PD1 and have a Spy27 on the way. This is the perfect combination for me, because I wanted a more stainless mule to compare to the PD1, and Spyderco's proprietary steel is a great one to try. However I don't plan to buy an S45VN or a Z-max because I own a Maxamet Para2 and S45VN seems fairly similar to other steels I have. I point that out to say the demand bubble around Spy27 may be unique (not having run a mule in years, having existing models in Spy27, potential future models in Spy27, and it's a unique steel itself.) That said, if a Vanax, Dendritic Cobalt, S5, S7, or some other such super interesting mule were announced I'd be all over it. That's not going to make me join the club, but I may still have a shot in the hypothetical open market, and an extra $10-$20 purchase price wouldn't scare me off.
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sal
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#87

Post by sal »

I'm getting a lot of suggestions for which I thank you. Most of the suggestions seem to add complexity and a lot of paperwork, follow up, individual communication, etc. Which I'm not really big on. Not only does it eat up a lot of someone's time, but it adds cost.

Since the steel for the next 6 mules are made or are being made, there is little that we can change. Maybe the best solution would be to hold as we are and see what the next few Mules do? Regular production of a Mule in SPY27 would serve as a "Kit knife" for those that are seeking that, and that might reduce the demand for other steels as well as get more of our steel out there?

sal
eonbluemantra
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#88

Post by eonbluemantra »

My vote is keep it simple. See how demand is for the next few mule releases and then adjust order size if needed based on a larger sample size. I actually think making the mule in SPY27 as regular production is an excellent idea as kind of a fix to this whole situation among other reasons.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#89

Post by Rinzler »

sal wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:30 pm
I'm getting a lot of suggestions for which I thank you. Most of the suggestions seem to add complexity and a lot of paperwork, follow up, individual communication, etc. Which I'm not really big on. Not only does it eat up a lot of someone's time, but it adds cost.

Since the steel for the next 6 mules are made or are being made, there is little that we can change. Maybe the best solution would be to hold as we are and see what the next few Mules do? Regular production of a Mule in SPY27 would serve as a "Kit knife" for those that are seeking that, and that might reduce the demand for other steels as well as get more of our steel out there?

sal
I’m fine with this direction.

Although I seem to have forgotten what the next six mules will be. Could you remind us again?
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#90

Post by TomAiello »

sal wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:30 pm
Regular production of a Mule in SPY27 would serve as a "Kit knife" for those that are seeking that, and that might reduce the demand for other steels as well as get more of our steel out there?
Yes, please!
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#91

Post by TomAiello »

Rp5 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:14 pm
I like the idea of the mule collectors club, and I think that's one way to have a partly fixed demand. Allow people to join at One or Two knives per run, and you have a more predictable demand for the next X number of runs. Your hardcore mule nuts can still get the two knives per run they want, and you can keep the price as low as you have historically. Beyond that... limit knives to One per customer, and raise the price 10-20% above the club price. That way there's less risk for Spyderco and less incentive for flippers (unless they join the club, which is again predictable demand.)
I like this format.

Although with a pre-commit to buy, there's no real reason to limit quantity. If a big dealer like DLT wanted to pre-order 100 and then have them on their web site at some mark up above SFO price, that would (a) spread the risk so Spyderco isn't taking all the financial risk alone, and (b) create a secondary pool of higher priced mules that would stick around as a 'second chance' after SFO sells out, without giving that role to the eBay flippers.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#92

Post by JRinFL »

sal wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:30 pm
I'm getting a lot of suggestions for which I thank you. Most of the suggestions seem to add complexity and a lot of paperwork, follow up, individual communication, etc. Which I'm not really big on. Not only does it eat up a lot of someone's time, but it adds cost.

Since the steel for the next 6 mules are made or are being made, there is little that we can change. Maybe the best solution would be to hold as we are and see what the next few Mules do? Regular production of a Mule in SPY27 would serve as a "Kit knife" for those that are seeking that, and that might reduce the demand for other steels as well as get more of our steel out there?

sal
This seems to be good solution for now, because as you said the quantities for the next 6 Mules are already set in stone.
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potahto
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#93

Post by potahto »

Without using a public preorder page:

1. Make Mule Team a forum member exclusive - The forum is open and free to join :)
2. Put "Mule Team 29 - Vibranium" or similar in the forum index - This is where members put their name on the list with "I'm in" (The limit is one at this point, just to take names)
3. "We want to produce 600 of these!"
4. Calculate - Say 200 members want in, notify that the limit is now 3x.
5. Unclaimed go on the MT page for public sale afterward. 1st and 15th are paydays...

All forum members gets their chance and scalpers minimized.

The webmaster might go nuts implementing a per user Add To Cart but it's doable. There's also the unique link method.
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Tucson Tom
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#94

Post by Tucson Tom »

Thinking only of myself now, and being utterly selfish.

1) I have no problem lining up at 10 AM at my computer for the next mule and hoping that it all works out.

2) But wait! What if I make plans for a backpacking trip, then the new mule gets announced when I am going to be out in the backcountry!!! This would be the end of the world. Or even worse!

3) This has me admiring the idea of pre-orders in a new way, never mind the club which would be better yet from my view. I would have a month to leisurely place my preorder (or join the club) and then the doomsday scenario of my planned trip is no longer an issue.

4) Having multiple drop dates would offer another solution. If you have 600 mules, break them into 3 groups of 200 (or whatever) and sell each group a week apart. This solves my problem (I am never gone for much more than a week) and might make life easier for the Spyderco shipping department, bless their hearts.

PS -- I like a lot of Potatoe's ideas also.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#95

Post by eonbluemantra »

Reading all these suggestions has me thinking how this could easily turn into whac-a-mole.
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#96

Post by VooDooChild »

Wouldnt the price per mule have to go up if spyderco chose to make larger mule runs???

I could have sworn that I remembered reading that there was little to no profit from the sale of a mule. I even said this in that other thread. I have certainly been wrong before though. If spyderco decides to make more mules then I am ok with that.

Im also ok with limit of 1 per person. Preorders and or presales, or whatever else spyderco sees fit.
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RandomNick
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#97

Post by RandomNick »

eonbluemantra wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:53 pm
Reading all these suggestions has me thinking how this could easily turn into whac-a-mole.
Whack-a-mule?
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#98

Post by QUICKSILVER »

Sal,

I just reread this thread and the one thing many customers want is a way to make sure they get the next mule. They either want mule club or a pre-order. You want to keep ordering reasonably manageable. The following system should do both.

1 Keep the current system.
2 Create a Spyderco Mule Support System.

Customers would buy a membership in the Mule Supporter System online just like any other purchase. The rules would be as follows.
1 The price would be $100 for Sustaining Membership and $200 for a Patron Membership.
2 Sustaining Members would get one of the next mules Patron Members would get two of the next mules.
3 Members must pay must pay a Membership renewal fee within one month of the original issue date of the mule or they will forfeit their membership and their original payment for membership. This fee would be equal to the cost of the mules they receive and can be purchased on line.
4 The next mule for a membership should be defined in some way that needs to be determined. Don't want people playing the system.

The Mule Support System will provide information for Spyderco, be easy to manage, meet expressed customer needs and discourage flippers.

Hope you like it. Let us talk about it.

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sal
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#99

Post by sal »

Hi Voodoo,

The cost wouldn't go up if we made more. We charge enough to cover the cost of the project. However, if we have to set up other services, like clubs, pre-orders, individual communication, deposits, records, etc. The cost of labor, which is our biggest expense, would certainly change the equation. And I'm not sure that I want to mess with that. I set it up so it would be manageable with a minimum of labor and I would be the guy talking about on the forum.

If it's going to go into a big business requirement with files and deposits and special handling, then I would have to make changes.

sal
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standy99
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Re: Mule Team quantity discussion

#100

Post by standy99 »

Sal

Would Mule club take that much work.

Name and card on file once opting in.

Send mule and charge when new release is out. (No need for any correspondence )
Less traffic when mules drop.
Guarantee of club numbers sold each drop.

No need for mule club member numbers on blade or anything besides a mule same as the others.
No opting in and out all the time.
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